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Qabala vs Sumqayıt Result & Analysis

Date: 18/02/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 2-1
Qabala
Qabala
Vs
47%
32%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Qabala win✓ Hit
47.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt win✗ Miss
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

QabalaQabala

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L11D21W01L00D22D03L22D00DH·ZIR05/11A·NEF12/11A·SUM29/11H·SƏB03/12A·QAR13/12H·TUR24/12A·KAP24/01H·SAB01/02A·ZIR05/02H·NEF10/02
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.121.250.921.001.331.50
vs Stronger (11)0.551.550.331.330.801.80
vs Similar (13)1.621.001.500.671.711.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-622D24L11D10W20W06L13L21W02L10WH·NEF05/11A·ŞAM11/11H·QAB29/11A·KAP04/12H·SƏB14/12H·SAB23/12A·ZIR25/01H·TUR30/01A·NEF05/02H·ŞAM12/02
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.641.640.821.360.451.91
vs Stronger (10)0.402.600.503.000.332.33
vs Similar (12)0.830.831.000.430.601.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%15%025%128%218%39%43%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
60.0%
Under 1.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
31.7%
Under 2.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.8%
Under 3.5
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
38.2%
No
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.0%
0-0
15.1%
1-1
13.9%
2-0
10.7%
0-1
8.9%
2-1 ✓
7.8%
1-2
4.6%
3-0
4.4%
Qabala goals ↓
Sumqayıt goals →
01234
015%8.9%3.7%0.9%0.2%
116%14%4.6%1.1%0.2%
211%7.8%2.9%0.7%0.1%
34.4%3.2%1.2%0.3%0.1%
41.4%1.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qabala goals (down), columns = Sumqayıt goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.50
Sabah FA
2.25
Neftchi Baku
1.89
Qabala
1.39
Zira
1.39
Turan
1.08
Sumqayıt
0.86
Kapaz
0.86
Səbail
0.81
Şamaxı FK
0.69
Qabala is 0.53 points better than Sumqayıt in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 0.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.53
Sabah FA
2.08
Neftchi Baku
1.75
Qabala
1.31
Zira
1.25
Turan
1.00
Kapaz
0.94
Səbail
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.72
Şamaxı FK
0.72
Qabala is 0.58 goals better than Sumqayıt in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 0.72).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.67
Qarabag
0.69
Neftchi Baku
1.06
Zira
1.28
Qabala
1.31
Turan
1.36
Şamaxı FK
1.44
Səbail
1.72
Kapaz
1.72
Sumqayıt
1.94
Qabala is 0.64 goals better than Sumqayıt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.94).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

QabalaQabala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D11D00D00D02L00D11D00DH·ZIR05/11A·NEF12/11A·SUM29/11H·SƏB03/12A·QAR13/12H·TUR24/12A·KAP24/01H·SAB01/02A·ZIR05/02H·NEF10/02
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.580.330.670.170.500.50
vs Stronger (11)0.360.270.170.000.600.60
vs Similar (13)0.770.381.170.330.430.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %71% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W12L00D00D10W04L10W11D00D10WH·NEF05/11A·ŞAM11/11H·QAB29/11A·KAP04/12H·SƏB14/12H·SAB23/12A·ZIR25/01H·TUR30/01A·NEF05/02H·ŞAM12/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.320.590.450.640.180.55
vs Stronger (10)0.200.700.251.250.170.33
vs Similar (12)0.420.500.570.290.200.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %59% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qabala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

QabalaQabala

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L11D10W01L00D20W03L11D00DH·ZIR05/11A·NEF12/11A·SUM29/11H·SƏB03/12A·QAR13/12H·TUR24/12A·KAP24/01H·SAB01/02A·ZIR05/02H·NEF10/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.540.920.250.830.831.00
vs Stronger (11)0.181.270.171.330.201.20
vs Similar (13)0.850.620.330.331.290.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %38% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L12L11D10W10W02L03L10W02L00DH·NEF05/11A·ŞAM11/11H·QAB29/11A·KAP04/12H·SƏB14/12H·SAB23/12A·ZIR25/01H·TUR30/01A·NEF05/02H·ŞAM12/02
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.321.050.360.730.271.36
vs Stronger (10)0.201.900.251.750.172.00
vs Similar (12)0.420.330.430.140.400.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %45% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qabala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.586.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Qabala's squad is €5m less valuable than Sumqayıt's (€5m vs €9m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Qabala's attack is €3m less valuable than Sumqayıt's (€1m vs €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Qabala and Sumqayıt have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Qabala's defence is €1m less valuable than Sumqayıt's (€3m vs €4m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
QAB wins
1
Draws
0
SUM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Qabala vs Sumqayıt · H/A from QAB
DateH/AGameScore
29/11/22ASumqayıt Vs QAB1-1
17/09/22HQAB Vs Sumqayıt1-0

QabalaQabala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/02/23HQAB Vs Neftchi Baku0-0
05/02/23AZira Vs QAB2-2
01/02/23HQAB Vs Sabah FA0-3
24/01/23AKapaz Vs QAB2-2
24/12/22HQAB Vs Turan0-0
13/12/22AQarabag Vs QAB1-0
03/12/22HQAB Vs Səbail2-1
29/11/22ASumqayıt Vs QAB1-1
12/11/22ANeftchi Baku Vs QAB2-0
05/11/22HQAB Vs Zira1-0

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/02/23HSUM Vs Şamaxı FK1-0
05/02/23ANeftchi Baku Vs SUM2-0
30/01/23HSUM Vs Turan2-1
25/01/23AZira Vs SUM3-1
23/12/22HSUM Vs Sabah FA0-6
14/12/22HSUM Vs Səbail2-0
04/12/22AKapaz Vs SUM0-1
29/11/22HSUM Vs Qabala1-1
11/11/22AŞamaxı FK Vs SUM4-2
05/11/22HSUM Vs Neftchi Baku2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Qabala
Qabala
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLDD1.29
HomeWWDLD1.50
AwayLDLDD1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%42%25%
AVG goals2.381.922.83
Over 1.5 %75%58%92%
Over 2.5 %50%42%58%
Over 3.5 %17%8%25%
Scored1.120.921.33
Conceded1.251.001.50
BTTS54%42%67%
Clean Sheet25%33%17%
Corners---
Cards4.00-4.00
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLW0.82
HomeDWLWW1.27
AwayLLWLL0.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%27%9%
AVG goals2.272.182.36
Over 1.5 %64%73%55%
Over 2.5 %36%27%45%
Over 3.5 %23%18%27%
Scored0.640.820.45
Conceded1.641.361.91
BTTS32%36%27%
Clean Sheet27%36%18%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3690
78%
2.5
9125+66
3.2
81%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.50.7
-
2Sabah FASabah FA3681
69%
2.2
7524+51
2.8
78%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.10.7
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3668
56%
1.9
6338+25
2.8
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.81.1
-
4QabalaQabala3650
36%
1.4
4747+0
2.6
81%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.31.3
-
5ZiraZira3650
36%
1.4
4546-1
2.5
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.21.3
-
6TuranTuran3639
28%
1.1
3649-13
2.4
69%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.01.4
-
7KapazKapaz3631
17%
0.9
3462-28
2.7
78%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.91.7
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3631
22%
0.9
2670-44
2.7
69%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.71.9
-
9SəbailSəbail3629
19%
0.8
3262-30
2.6
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.7
-
10Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3625
11%
0.7
2652-26
2.2
61%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.71.4
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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