The model favours an away win, with a 44% chance of Zira taking the match, while the home side has a 26% chance and a draw sits at 30%. The expected total is 2.4 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 27% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14% chance. Qabala, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages only 0.33 goals scored and concedes 1.67, whereas Zira, on the road against a weaker side, scores 2.0 and concedes 0.67. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with a 77.7% probability and Over 1.5 with a 70.6% probability. The home win probability is 26%, the draw 30%, and the away win 44%. Each pick is presented with its exact percentage, and no other outcomes are assigned win chances.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Qabala snatched a 1-0 win, overturning the model’s favourite for an away victory. The pre-match pick, “Away win,” carried a 44% probability, but the result proved wrong. The model’s other selections were mixed: “Under 3.5” hit at 77.7%, while “Over 1.5” missed at 70.6%. Qabala, still on a draw-heavy run, managed to edge past Zira, who were riding a three-game winning streak. The final score of 1-0 confirmed a home win, leaving the model’s prediction off the mark.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Qabala win✓ Hit
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zira win✗ Miss
43.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Qabala
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.36
1.29
1.14
1.14
1.57
1.43
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.80
0.33
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.78
1.00
1.75
0.75
1.80
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
21% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zira
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.64
0.71
2.43
1.43
0.86
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.33
0.50
5.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (5)
1.00
2.00
0.50
3.00
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
29% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.6%
Under 1.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.2%
Under 2.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 3.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.2%
No
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-1
11.2%
0-0
10.3%
1-2
8.8%
0-2
8.6%
1-0 ✓
7.9%
2-1
6.5%
2-0
4.7%
Qabala goals ↓
Zira goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
11%
8.6%
4.0%
1.4%
1
7.9%
14%
8.8%
4.1%
1.4%
2
4.7%
6.5%
4.5%
2.1%
0.7%
3
1.6%
2.2%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qabala goals (down), columns = Zira goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Qarabag
2.50
Sabah FA
2.25
Neftchi Baku
1.89
Qabala
1.39
Zira
1.39
Turan
1.08
Sumqayıt
0.86
Kapaz
0.86
Səbail
0.81
Şamaxı FK
0.69
Qabala and Zira are level in average points per game (both 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.53
Sabah FA
2.08
Neftchi Baku
1.75
Qabala
1.31
Zira
1.25
Turan
1.00
Kapaz
0.94
Səbail
0.89
Şamaxı FK
0.72
Sumqayıt
0.72
Qabala is 0.06 goals better than Zira in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.67
Qarabag
0.69
Neftchi Baku
1.06
Zira
1.28
Qabala
1.31
Turan
1.36
Şamaxı FK
1.44
Səbail
1.72
Kapaz
1.72
Sumqayıt
1.94
Qabala is 0.03 goals worse than Zira in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Qabala
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.21
1.00
0.14
0.71
0.29
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.20
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.22
1.50
0.25
0.60
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
79% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zira
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.79
0.43
1.00
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.50
0.33
0.33
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
36% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qabala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Qabala
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.07
0.14
1.00
0.86
1.14
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.60
0.00
1.67
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.78
0.25
0.50
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zira
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.86
0.29
1.43
0.57
0.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.33
0.00
3.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (5)
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qabala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Qabala's squad is €8m less valuable than Zira's (€5m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Qabala's attack is €5m less valuable than Zira's (€1m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Qabala and Zira have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Qabala's defence is €3m less valuable than Zira's (€3m vs €6m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Neftchi Baku
Turan
Kapaz
Sumqayıt
Səbail
Şamaxı FK