Qabala vs Zira Result & Analysis

Defensive numbers set the tone: Qabala’s home form shows only 0.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded against stronger opposition, while Zira’s away record is 1.0 scored and 0.86 conceded to weaker teams. The model favours a Draw, with a 35% chance of a tie, 30% for a Qabala win and 35% for a Zira win. The expected total is 1.9 goals, centring on the most likely scoreline 0-0 at 16.9%. The single most likely total of goals is two, with a 28% probability.

The model’s selections include Under 3.5 at 88.2% and Under 2.5 at 71.5%. The edge for Under 3.5 is noted. All probabilities are expressed as percentages. The match is expected to be low-scoring, with defensive solidity from both sides suggesting a tight contest.

The upset came early as Qabala edged Zira 2-1, a home win that broke the draw the model had predicted. The pre-match favourite, a Draw at 35%, proved wrong, with the model’s call incorrect. The model’s other selections fared mixed: Under 3.5, with an 88.2% probability, hit the target, while Under 2.5, at 71.5%, missed. Qabala, coming off a draw in their last five, showed resilience, and Zira, on a three-game winning streak, could not keep pace. The final score of 2-1 confirms the home side’s triumph, leaving the model’s prediction off the mark.