Qarabag’s recent five matches, ending with a win over Sumqayit, set the tone for a high-scoring encounter. The model projects a 57% chance of a home win, 23% for a draw, and 21% for Qabala to prevail, making the home victory the clear favourite. With an expected total of 3.3 goals, the most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 10.1% probability. On the attacking front, Qarabag averages 2.2 goals scored and only 0.7 conceded at home against weaker opposition, while Qabala, playing away against stronger teams, averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals has an 85.5% probability. The predicted outcome is a home win, with the probabilities of 57%, 23%, and 21% for home, draw, and away respectively.
Results analysis
The win extends Qarabag’s strong run, with a 3-0 triumph over Qabala. The model had picked a home win with a 57% probability, and it proved correct. Its single suggested selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with an 85.5% chance. The most likely scoreline was 2-0, but the match finished 3-0, still a home win. Qarabag’s recent form, a string of four victories after a win, matched the model’s confidence, while Qabala, coming off a draw, fell short. The final score of 3-0 confirmed the model’s overall prediction, with all selections settled as indicated.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Qarabag win✓ Hit
56.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qabala win✗ Miss
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Qarabag
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.67
1.79
0.64
2.19
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (22)
2.50
0.59
2.20
0.70
2.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qabala
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.33
1.13
1.13
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (15)
0.87
1.67
0.62
1.50
1.14
1.86
vs Similar (15)
1.80
1.00
1.71
0.71
1.88
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.5%
Under 1.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.8%
Under 2.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.8%
Under 3.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.0%
No
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
6.9%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
5.9%
1-2
5.6%
3-0 ✓
5.6%
Qarabag goals ↓
Qabala goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
3.4%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
1
6.6%
10%
5.6%
2.3%
0.7%
2
7.9%
9.7%
5.9%
2.4%
0.7%
3
5.6%
6.9%
4.2%
1.7%
0.5%
4
3.0%
3.6%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qarabag goals (down), columns = Qabala goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Qarabag
2.50
Sabah FA
2.25
Neftchi Baku
1.89
Qabala
1.39
Zira
1.39
Turan
1.08
Sumqayıt
0.86
Kapaz
0.86
Səbail
0.81
Şamaxı FK
0.69
Qarabag is 1.11 points better than Qabala in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.53
Sabah FA
2.08
Neftchi Baku
1.75
Qabala
1.31
Zira
1.25
Turan
1.00
Kapaz
0.94
Səbail
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.72
Şamaxı FK
0.72
Qarabag is 1.22 goals better than Qabala in terms of goals scored per game (2.53 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.67
Qarabag
0.69
Neftchi Baku
1.06
Zira
1.28
Qabala
1.31
Turan
1.36
Şamaxı FK
1.44
Səbail
1.72
Kapaz
1.72
Sumqayıt
1.94
Qarabag is 0.61 goals better than Qabala in terms of goals conceded per game (0.69 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Qarabag
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.23
0.57
0.21
0.88
0.25
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.14
0.29
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.25
vs Weaker (22)
0.95
0.23
0.70
0.20
1.17
0.25
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qabala
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.30
0.67
0.13
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
0.33
0.25
0.12
1.00
0.57
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.27
1.14
0.14
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Qarabag
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.43
1.21
0.43
1.31
0.44
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.71
0.67
0.33
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.55
0.36
1.50
0.50
1.58
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qabala
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.03
0.47
1.00
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
1.33
0.38
1.38
0.14
1.29
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.73
0.57
0.57
1.38
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Qarabag
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Owusu Kwabena40%
Filip Ozobić29%
Ibrahima Wadji25%
Kady Borges20%
Leandro Andrade20%
Marko Vešović17%
Marko Janković10%
Abdellah Zoubir8%
Ramil Sheydaev8%
Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev0%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Richard Almeida0%
Toral Bayramov0%
Qara Qarayev0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Dzhafarquliyev0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Júlio Romão0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Júlio Romão38%
Maksim Medvedev33%
Marko Vešović33%
Kady Borges30%
Ibrahima Wadji25%
Musa Qurbanlı25%
Toral Bayramov20%
Elvin Dzhafarquliyev20%
Richard Almeida17%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Ramil Sheydaev17%
Qara Qarayev11%
Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev10%
Marko Janković10%
Owusu Kwabena10%
Bahlul Mustafazada9%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Filip Ozobić0%
Kevin Medina0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kady Borges30%
Filip Ozobić29%
Qara Qarayev11%
Toral Bayramov10%
Marko Janković10%
Owusu Kwabena10%
Abdellah Zoubir8%
Marko Vešović8%
Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev0%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Richard Almeida0%
Ibrahima Wadji0%
Kevin Medina0%
Ramil Sheydaev0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Dzhafarquliyev0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Júlio Romão0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Owusu Kwabena50%
Kady Borges30%
Ibrahima Wadji25%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Filip Ozobić14%
Qara Qarayev11%
Ramil Sheydaev8%
Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev0%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Richard Almeida0%
Toral Bayramov0%
Marko Janković0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Dzhafarquliyev0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Júlio Romão0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Qarabag's squad is €20m more valuable than Qabala's (€25m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Qarabag's attack is €7m more valuable than Qabala's (€8m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Qarabag's midfield is €2m more valuable than Qabala's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Qarabag's defence is €11m more valuable than Qabala's (€14m vs €3m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sabah FA
Neftchi Baku
Zira
Turan
Kapaz
Sumqayıt
Səbail
Şamaxı FK