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Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK Result & Analysis

Date: 31/01/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 3-1
Qarabag
Qarabag
Vs
69%
20%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Qarabag win✓ Hit
68.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK win✗ Miss
11.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

QarabagQarabag

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W11D31W20W00D00D40W10W30W32WA·ŞAM30/10H·SC 03/11H·KAP06/11A·TUR09/11A·SAB13/11H·ZIR28/11A·NEF02/12H·QAB13/12A·SƏB24/12A·TUR25/01
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.200.702.070.642.310.75
vs Stronger (2)1.500.000.000.003.000.00
vs Similar (10)1.501.201.801.001.201.40
vs Weaker (18)2.670.502.500.502.800.50
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D04L31W42W11D11D00D03L21WH·QAB14/10A·SƏB23/10H·QAR30/10A·TUR04/11H·SUM11/11H·KAP28/11A·SAB03/12H·ZIR13/12A·NEF23/12H·SƏB26/01
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.841.530.901.300.781.78
vs Stronger (8)0.121.880.001.500.252.25
vs Similar (11)1.361.271.501.171.201.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %11% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.0%
Under 2.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.6%
Under 3.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.9%
No
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.0%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.6%
3-0
8.9%
3-1 ✓
7.1%
0-0
5.8%
4-0
4.9%
Qarabag goals ↓
Şamaxı FK goals →
01234
05.8%3.0%1.6%0.4%0.1%
110.0%9.6%3.5%0.9%0.2%
212%9.6%3.8%1.0%0.2%
38.9%7.1%2.8%0.8%0.2%
44.9%3.9%1.6%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qarabag goals (down), columns = Şamaxı FK goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.50
Sabah FA
2.25
Neftchi Baku
1.89
Qabala
1.39
Zira
1.39
Turan
1.08
Sumqayıt
0.86
Kapaz
0.86
Səbail
0.81
Şamaxı FK
0.69
Qarabag is 1.81 points better than Şamaxı FK in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 0.69).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.53
Sabah FA
2.08
Neftchi Baku
1.75
Qabala
1.31
Zira
1.25
Turan
1.00
Kapaz
0.94
Səbail
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.72
Şamaxı FK
0.72
Qarabag is 1.81 goals better than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals scored per game (2.53 vs 0.72).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.67
Qarabag
0.69
Neftchi Baku
1.06
Zira
1.28
Qabala
1.31
Turan
1.36
Şamaxı FK
1.44
Səbail
1.72
Kapaz
1.72
Sumqayıt
1.94
Qarabag is 0.75 goals better than Şamaxı FK in terms of goals conceded per game (0.69 vs 1.44).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

QarabagQarabag

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L10W20W00D00D10W00D00D21WA·ŞAM30/10H·SC 03/11H·KAP06/11A·TUR09/11A·SAB13/11H·ZIR28/11A·NEF02/12H·QAB13/12A·SƏB24/12A·TUR25/01
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.330.570.290.620.38
vs Stronger (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (10)0.500.600.400.600.600.60
vs Weaker (18)0.720.220.750.120.700.30
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D21W21W01L01L00D01L01LH·QAB14/10A·SƏB23/10H·QAR30/10A·TUR04/11H·SUM11/11H·KAP28/11A·SAB03/12H·ZIR13/12A·NEF23/12H·SƏB26/01
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.320.630.200.400.440.89
vs Stronger (8)0.000.380.000.000.000.75
vs Similar (11)0.550.820.330.670.801.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

QarabagQarabag

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W10W21W00D00D00D30W10W30W11DA·ŞAM30/10H·SC 03/11H·KAP06/11A·TUR09/11A·SAB13/11H·ZIR28/11A·NEF02/12H·QAB13/12A·SƏB24/12A·TUR25/01
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.371.500.361.690.38
vs Stronger (2)1.500.000.000.003.000.00
vs Similar (10)1.000.601.400.400.600.80
vs Weaker (18)1.940.281.750.382.100.20
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D04L10W21W10W10W00D02L20WH·QAB14/10A·SƏB23/10H·QAR30/10A·TUR04/11H·SUM11/11H·KAP28/11A·SAB03/12H·ZIR13/12A·NEF23/12H·SƏB26/01
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.890.700.900.330.89
vs Stronger (8)0.121.500.001.500.251.50
vs Similar (11)0.820.451.170.500.400.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.2%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Qarabag
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Owusu Kwabena40%
Filip Ozobić29%
Ibrahima Wadji25%
Kady Borges20%
Leandro Andrade20%
Marko Vešović17%
Marko Janković10%
Abdellah Zoubir8%
Ramil Sheydaev8%
Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev0%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Richard Almeida0%
Toral Bayramov0%
Qara Qarayev0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Dzhafarquliyev0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Júlio Romão0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Júlio Romão38%
Maksim Medvedev33%
Marko Vešović33%
Kady Borges30%
Ibrahima Wadji25%
Musa Qurbanlı25%
Toral Bayramov20%
Elvin Dzhafarquliyev20%
Richard Almeida17%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Ramil Sheydaev17%
Qara Qarayev11%
Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev10%
Marko Janković10%
Owusu Kwabena10%
Bahlul Mustafazada9%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Filip Ozobić0%
Kevin Medina0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kady Borges30%
Filip Ozobić29%
Qara Qarayev11%
Toral Bayramov10%
Marko Janković10%
Owusu Kwabena10%
Abdellah Zoubir8%
Marko Vešović8%
Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev0%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Richard Almeida0%
Ibrahima Wadji0%
Kevin Medina0%
Ramil Sheydaev0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Dzhafarquliyev0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Júlio Romão0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Owusu Kwabena50%
Kady Borges30%
Ibrahima Wadji25%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Filip Ozobić14%
Qara Qarayev11%
Ramil Sheydaev8%
Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev0%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Maksim Medvedev0%
Richard Almeida0%
Toral Bayramov0%
Marko Janković0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Dzhafarquliyev0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Júlio Romão0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Qarabag's squad is €21m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€25m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Qarabag's attack is €7m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€8m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Qarabag's midfield is €2m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€3m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Qarabag's defence is €12m more valuable than Şamaxı FK's (€14m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
QAR wins
0
Draws
0
ŞF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK · H/A from QAR
DateH/AGameScore
30/10/22AŞamaxı FK Vs QAR0-4
27/08/22HQAR Vs Şamaxı FK4-0

QarabagQarabag

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/01/23ATuran Vs QAR2-3
24/12/22ASəbail Vs QAR0-3
13/12/22HQAR Vs Qabala1-0
02/12/22ANeftchi Baku Vs QAR0-4
28/11/22HQAR Vs Zira0-0
13/11/22ASabah FA Vs QAR0-0
09/11/22ATuran Vs QAR0-2
06/11/22HQAR Vs Kapaz3-1
03/11/22HQAR Vs SC Freiburg1-1
30/10/22AŞamaxı FK Vs QAR0-4

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/01/23HŞF Vs Səbail2-1
23/12/22ANeftchi Baku Vs ŞF3-0
13/12/22HŞF Vs Zira0-0
03/12/22ASabah FA Vs ŞF1-1
28/11/22HŞF Vs Kapaz1-1
11/11/22HŞF Vs Sumqayıt4-2
04/11/22ATuran Vs ŞF1-3
30/10/22HŞF Vs Qarabag0-4
23/10/22ASəbail Vs ŞF0-0
14/10/22HŞF Vs Qabala1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Qarabag
Qarabag
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW2.18
HomeWDWDW2.38
AwayWDWWW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%69%65%
AVG goals3.003.062.94
Over 1.5 %76%75%76%
Over 2.5 %64%62%65%
Over 3.5 %39%50%29%
Scored2.242.312.18
Conceded0.760.750.76
BTTS48%56%41%
Clean Sheet48%44%53%
Corners9.579.299.86
Cards5.435.005.86
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDLW0.84
HomeLWDDW1.00
AwayLDWDL0.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %16%20%11%
AVG goals2.372.202.56
Over 1.5 %68%60%78%
Over 2.5 %42%30%56%
Over 3.5 %26%20%33%
Scored0.840.900.78
Conceded1.531.301.78
BTTS53%50%56%
Clean Sheet11%10%11%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3690
78%
2.5
9125+66
3.2
81%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.50.7
-
2Sabah FASabah FA3681
69%
2.2
7524+51
2.8
78%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.10.7
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3668
56%
1.9
6338+25
2.8
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.81.1
-
4QabalaQabala3650
36%
1.4
4747+0
2.6
81%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.31.3
-
5ZiraZira3650
36%
1.4
4546-1
2.5
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.21.3
-
6TuranTuran3639
28%
1.1
3649-13
2.4
69%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.01.4
-
7KapazKapaz3631
17%
0.9
3462-28
2.7
78%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.91.7
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3631
22%
0.9
2670-44
2.7
69%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.71.9
-
9SəbailSəbail3629
19%
0.8
3262-30
2.6
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.7
-
10Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3625
11%
0.7
2652-26
2.2
61%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.71.4
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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