Qarabag vs Sumqayıt Result & Analysis

Qarabag enter the match on a strong home run, having won four of their last five fixtures and recently defeating Sumqayıt 1-0. The model therefore rates a home win as the most likely outcome, assigning it a 71% probability. The draw sits at 19% while an away win is only 10%. The expected total goals is 3.0, but the most probable total is 2 goals, with a 23% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Qarabag, with a 12.9% probability. Qarabag’s home form against weaker opposition shows they average 2.27 goals scored and concede only 0.64, whereas Sumqayıt’s away form against stronger teams yields just 0.4 goals scored and 3.0 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Over 1.5 with an 80.5% probability, and a Home win selection at 71.2%. Each selection is listed with its exact percentage, and no other outcomes are assigned win probabilities.

The upset came as Qarabag, riding a win to start their last five, fell to a 1-2 defeat to Sumqayıt, who had just broken a four-game losing streak. The pre-match favourite was the home side, with a 71% chance of triumph, but the model’s pick proved wrong. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 80.5% probability, while the Home win call missed. The match finished 1-2, an away win, contradicting the 71.2% odds for a Qarabag victory. The most likely scoreline of 2-0 never materialised, and the total goals fell short of the expected three.