Queen of Southampton’s recent unbeaten run, highlighted by a 4-1 win over Alloa, fuels optimism for a home triumph, and the model’s probabilities back that outcome with a 47% chance of a Queen of Southhampton win, 25% for a draw and 28% for an Alloa win. The predicted total of 3.3 goals signals a lively contest, with the most likely total of three goals carrying a 22% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with an 11% chance. In terms of attack and defense, Queen of Southhampton averages 1.42 goals scored and 2.08 conceded at home against similarly ranked opposition, while Alloa scores 1.36 and concedes 2.0 on the road. The model’s suggested picks include an 87% chance of under 5.5 cards, an 84.7% chance of over 1.5 goals, an 80.1% chance of over 19.5 fouls, a 74.3% chance of under 4.5 cards, and a 73.1% chance of over 8.5 corners.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Queen of Sth, failed to deliver as the match ended 2-3 in favour of Alloa. The model had called a home win with a 47% probability, but the prediction proved wrong. The game’s final score of 2-3 gave an away win, contradicting the model’s pick. The model’s other selections performed as follows: Under 5.5 cards (87%) missed, Over 1.5 (84.7%) hit, Over 19.5 fouls (80.1%) missed, Under 4.5 cards (74.3%) missed, and Over 8.5 corners (73.1%) missed. Queen of Sth’s unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a 4-1 win over Alloa, was not enough to secure victory, while Alloa’s recent form of two straight defeats before a win against Queen of Sth proved decisive.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Queen of Sth win✗ Miss
47.3%
Avg Implied 47.1% · @ 1.96
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.51
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Alloa win✓ Hit
28.1%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.48
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
QO
Queen of Sth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.93
1.29
2.07
1.38
1.81
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
6.00
vs Similar (25)
1.44
1.80
1.42
2.08
1.46
1.54
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
2.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Alloa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.83
1.19
1.69
1.29
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
1.22
1.91
1.08
1.83
1.36
2.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
1.00
1.67
0.67
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of Sth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.7%
Under 1.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.4%
@ 1.77+10.3%
Under 2.5
36.6%
@ 2.00-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.2%
Under 3.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.7%
No
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
7.0%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.1%
3-1
5.8%
0-0
4.8%
Queen of Sth goals ↓
Alloa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
4.4%
3.8%
1.8%
0.6%
1
6.1%
11%
7.0%
3.3%
1.2%
2
6.6%
9.3%
6.5%
3.1%
1.1%
3
4.1%
5.8%
4.0%
1.9%
0.7%
4
1.9%
2.7%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Queen of Sth goals (down), columns = Alloa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Dundee
1.67
Raith Rvs
1.59
Dunfermline
1.44
Inverness CT
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.19
Arbroath
1.11
Morton
1.07
Ayr
1.07
Alloa
0.81
Queen of Sth is 0.37 points better than Alloa in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 0.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.33
Dundee
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.67
Dunfermline
1.41
Queen of Sth
1.41
Inverness CT
1.33
Ayr
1.15
Alloa
1.11
Arbroath
1.04
Morton
0.81
Queen of Sth is 0.30 goals better than Alloa in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Inverness CT
1.15
Morton
1.22
Dunfermline
1.26
Arbroath
1.26
Raith Rvs
1.33
Ayr
1.37
Dundee
1.48
Queen of Sth
1.89
Alloa
2.22
Queen of Sth is 0.33 goals better than Alloa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.89 vs 2.22).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
QO
Queen of Sth
For 4.2 · Against 7.1 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 13.5 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Alloa
For 3.1 · Against 7.1 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 16.4 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
QO
Queen of Sth
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.7
10.3
3.1
3.2
3.0
20.6
21.7
19.4
vs Stronger (2)
10.5
12.0
9.0
2.0
4.0
0.0
20.0
28.0
12.0
vs Similar (43)
10.5
10.7
10.3
3.1
3.2
3.1
21.0
21.8
20.1
vs Weaker (5)
10.6
10.0
11.0
2.8
2.5
3.0
17.2
17.5
17.0
% over line
62%
64%
60%
38%
44%
32%
48%
56%
40%
% under line
38%
36%
40%
62%
56%
68%
52%
44%
60%
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Alloa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.6
12.0
11.2
2.8
2.6
2.9
22.2
22.7
21.8
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
10.0
7.0
5.0
4.0
6.0
38.0
39.0
37.0
vs Similar (40)
11.6
12.1
11.1
2.6
2.4
2.9
21.3
21.3
21.3
vs Weaker (8)
12.5
12.2
13.0
2.9
3.4
2.0
23.1
25.0
20.0
% over line
68%
64%
72%
36%
36%
36%
50%
52%
48%
% under line
32%
36%
28%
64%
64%
64%
50%
48%
52%
This opponent (Queen of Sth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Alloa
11.6
Inverness CT
11.0
Heart Of Midlothian
10.9
Dunfermline
10.7
Raith Rvs
10.6
Morton
10.6
Queen of Sth
10.5
Ayr
10.1
Dundee
10.1
Arbroath
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
3.9
Raith Rvs
3.8
Dundee
3.4
Arbroath
3.3
Ayr
3.2
Inverness CT
3.2
Dunfermline
3.1
Queen of Sth
3.1
Morton
3.0
Alloa
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
26.1
Dundee
25.2
Arbroath
22.3
Raith Rvs
22.3
Alloa
22.2
Ayr
21.5
Inverness CT
21.3
Morton
20.8
Queen of Sth
20.6
Dunfermline
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
61.6%
Under 9.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.3%
Under 3.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
66.1%
Under 21.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
QO
Queen of Sth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.57
0.93
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.88
0.58
1.00
0.85
0.77
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Alloa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.50
0.69
0.86
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.74
0.42
0.58
0.91
0.91
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of Sth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Queen of Sth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of Sth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of Sth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
QO
Queen of Sth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.07
0.71
1.14
0.69
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.92
0.83
1.08
0.62
0.77
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Alloa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.69
1.00
0.43
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.57
1.17
0.67
1.25
0.45
1.09
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of Sth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Queen of Sth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of Sth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of Sth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: Championship 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heart Of Midlothian
Dundee
Dunfermline
Inverness CT
Arbroath
Morton