Dunfermline are tipped to edge Queen's Park in a match that the model sees as a 42% away win, with a 31% chance of a draw and a 27% chance of a Queen's Park victory. The expected total is 2.3 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.4% chance. Queen's Park, playing at home against a side of similar strength, averages 1.23 goals scored and 1.23 conceded, while Dunfermline on the road averages 1.33 goals scored and only 1.08 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.2%), Under 5.5 (97.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (92.4%), Under 4.5 (92.0%) and Away +2 handicap (89.9%). Queen's Park’s recent run of DLLLW and a 0-0 draw against Partick contrast with Dunfermline’s WLLDD and a 1-0 win over Raith Rovers, setting the stage for a tightly contested encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Queen's Park win
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline win
48.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Queen's Park
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.40
1.14
1.29
0.88
1.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
5.00
-
-
0.50
5.00
vs Similar (26)
1.08
1.12
1.23
1.23
0.92
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.80
1.88
0.50
1.21
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
3.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.50
0.77
1.64
0.50
1.33
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
4.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.7%
Under 1.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.8%
Under 2.5
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.6%
Under 3.5
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.2%
No
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1
13.2%
0-0
11.5%
0-2
10.1%
1-2
8.8%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
5.5%
0-3
4.8%
Queen's Park goals ↓
Dunfermline goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
13%
10%
4.8%
1.7%
1
7.7%
14%
8.8%
4.1%
1.5%
2
3.9%
5.5%
3.9%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.1%
1.6%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Queen's Park goals (down), columns = Dunfermline goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Queen's Park is 0.40 points worse than Dunfermline in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.54).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Queen's Park is 0.47 goals worse than Dunfermline in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Queen's Park is 0.31 goals worse than Dunfermline in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.02).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Queen's Park
For 2.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 8.5 · Total 19.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunfermline
For 4.8 · Against 3.5 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.6 · Against 10.6 · Total 18.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Queen's Park
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
6.0
12.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
19.0
20.0
18.0
vs Stronger (2)
12.0
-
12.0
1.0
-
1.0
18.0
-
18.0
vs Similar (45)
6.0
6.0
-
0.1
0.1
0.0
20.0
20.0
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
% under line
50%
100%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.1
8.2
8.0
0.9
0.7
1.2
19.5
23.0
16.5
vs Stronger (3)
9.0
13.0
5.0
1.3
1.0
2.0
19.5
24.0
15.0
vs Similar (44)
7.9
7.0
8.6
1.0
0.7
1.3
19.4
22.8
16.8
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
27%
20%
33%
14%
8%
21%
45%
60%
33%
% under line
73%
80%
67%
86%
92%
79%
55%
40%
67%
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
39.4%
Under 9.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.1%
Under 3.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
43.9%
Under 21.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Queen's Park or Draw
51.8%
Avg Implied -
22%
30%
48%
covers Queen's Park + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park or Dunfermline
70.3%
Avg Implied -
22%
30%
48%
covers Queen's Park + Dunfermline
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dunfermline
78.0%
Avg Implied -
22%
30%
48%
covers Draw + Dunfermline
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Queen's Park over/under 0.5
Over
58.2%
Under
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 1.5
Over
21.7%
Under
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 2.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5
Over
75.5%
Under
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5
Over
41.1%
Under
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 3.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Queen's Park, so a minus line means Queen's Park give that many goals of a start and Dunfermline receive them. At -1, Queen's Park must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Queen's Park win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Queen's Park)
Queen's Park -2
1.9%
Draw -2
5.7%
Dunfermline +2
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Queen's Park)
Queen's Park -1
7.6%
Draw -1
14.4%
Dunfermline +1
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Queen's Park)
Queen's Park +1
51.8%
Draw +1
24.0%
Dunfermline -1
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Queen's Park)
Queen's Park +2
75.8%
Draw +2
15.0%
Dunfermline -2
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Queen's Park
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.71
0.64
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.50
-
-
0.00
3.50
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.58
0.77
0.69
0.31
0.46
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.94
0.19
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.38
0.79
0.21
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Queen's Park over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Queen's Park
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.43
0.64
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
-
-
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.54
0.46
0.54
0.62
0.54
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.40
0.94
0.31
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.85
0.38
0.86
0.29
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Queen's Park over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Queen's Park's squad is €2m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Queen's Park and Dunfermline have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Queen's Park and Dunfermline have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Queen's Park's defence is €1m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€1m vs €2m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
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Stenhousemuir
Partick
Raith Rovers
Arbroath
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Inverness CT
Morton