PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Queen's University vs Ards Result & Analysis

Date: 21/02/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 2-2
Queen
Queen's University
Vs
32%
29%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Queen's University win✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ards win✗ Miss
38.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

QueenQueen's University

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D02L21W02L11D22D11D10W10W04LH·LIM06/12A·LOU13/12H·INS20/12A·NEW26/12A·BAL30/12H·H&W17/01A·DUN24/01H·ANN31/01H·WAR10/02A·LOU14/02
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.231.201.071.131.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.210.861.140.431.291.29
vs Weaker (16)1.121.561.251.621.001.50
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-801L13L11D41W00D80W02L00D21W23LA·LIM22/11A·ANN29/11H·LOU06/12A·DUN20/12H·WAR26/12A·ARM30/12A·NEW17/01H·INS24/01H·NEW03/02H·H&W14/02
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.571.271.931.401.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.051.471.001.671.101.30
vs Weaker (11)1.821.731.672.332.001.00
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's University) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.6%
Under 1.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.6%
Under 2.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.3%
Under 3.5
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.1%
No
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-1
9.5%
0-0
9.5%
1-0
8.4%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
5.7%
Queen's University goals ↓
Ards goals →
01234
09.5%9.5%7.1%3.1%1.0%
18.4%14%8.4%3.7%1.2%
25.7%7.6%5.0%2.2%0.7%
32.3%3.0%2.0%0.9%0.3%
40.7%0.9%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Queen's University goals (down), columns = Ards goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Limavady United
2.13
Annagh United
1.89
H&W Welders
1.74
Newington Youth
1.58
Institute
1.55
Queen's University
1.50
Loughgall
1.47
Ards
1.37
Warrenpoint Town
1.08
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Dundela
0.74
Armagh City
0.50
Queen's University is 0.13 points better than Ards in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.37).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
H&W Welders
2.29
Newington Youth
2.03
Limavady United
1.82
Institute
1.55
Ards
1.47
Annagh United
1.45
Queen's University
1.34
Loughgall
1.32
Warrenpoint Town
1.18
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Dundela
1.13
Armagh City
0.79
Queen's University is 0.13 goals worse than Ards in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.47).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Limavady United
0.89
Loughgall
1.00
Annagh United
1.03
Queen's University
1.21
Institute
1.21
H&W Welders
1.26
Ards
1.34
Warrenpoint Town
1.39
Ballinamallard United
1.58
Newington Youth
1.63
Dundela
2.03
Armagh City
2.95
Queen's University is 0.13 goals better than Ards in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.34).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

QueenQueen's University

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D11D01L01L22D01L10W00D02LH·LIM06/12A·LOU13/12H·INS20/12A·NEW26/12A·BAL30/12H·H&W17/01A·DUN24/01H·ANN31/01H·WAR10/02A·LOU14/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.410.720.570.790.270.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.230.540.330.330.140.71
vs Weaker (16)0.560.880.751.120.380.62
Clean sheet %45% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D10W20W00D40W00D00D10W12LA·LIM22/11A·ANN29/11H·LOU06/12A·DUN20/12H·WAR26/12A·ARM30/12A·NEW17/01H·INS24/01H·NEW03/02H·H&W14/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.530.530.800.670.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.470.370.440.560.500.20
vs Weaker (11)0.820.820.671.171.000.40
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's University) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Queen's University over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

QueenQueen's University

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D02L10W01L10W00D10W00D10W02LH·LIM06/12A·LOU13/12H·INS20/12A·NEW26/12A·BAL30/12H·H&W17/01A·DUN24/01H·ANN31/01H·WAR10/02A·LOU14/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.690.550.500.360.870.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.850.380.500.171.140.57
vs Weaker (16)0.560.690.500.500.620.88
Clean sheet %55% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L02L01L21W00D40W02L00D11D11DA·LIM22/11A·ANN29/11H·LOU06/12A·DUN20/12H·WAR26/12A·ARM30/12A·NEW17/01H·INS24/01H·NEW03/02H·H&W14/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.030.731.130.730.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.581.110.561.110.601.10
vs Weaker (11)1.000.911.001.171.000.60
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's University) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Queen's University over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.7%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.572.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (5)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AC (2)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
QU wins
0
Draws
0
ARD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Queen's University vs Ards · H/A from QU
DateH/AGameScore
18/10/25HQU Vs Ards1-0
16/09/25AArds Vs QU2-3

QueenQueen's University

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/02/26ALoughgall Vs QU4-0
10/02/26HQU Vs Warrenpoint Town1-0
31/01/26HQU Vs Annagh United1-0
24/01/26ADundela Vs QU1-1
17/01/26HQU Vs H&W Welders2-2
30/12/25ABallinamallard United Vs QU1-1
26/12/25ANewington Youth Vs QU2-0
20/12/25HQU Vs Institute2-1
13/12/25ALoughgall Vs QU2-0
06/12/25HQU Vs Limavady United2-2

ArdsArds

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/02/26HARD Vs H&W Welders2-3
03/02/26HARD Vs Newington Youth2-1
24/01/26HARD Vs Institute0-0
17/01/26ANewington Youth Vs ARD2-0
30/12/25AArmagh City Vs ARD0-8
26/12/25HARD Vs Warrenpoint Town0-0
20/12/25ADundela Vs ARD1-4
06/12/25HARD Vs Loughgall1-1
29/11/25AAnnagh United Vs ARD3-1
22/11/25ALimavady United Vs ARD1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Queen
Queen's University
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWL1.43
HomeDWDWW1.60
AwayLLDDL1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %37%40%33%
AVG goals2.402.272.53
Over 1.5 %80%67%93%
Over 2.5 %40%47%33%
Over 3.5 %20%20%20%
Scored1.171.201.13
Conceded1.231.071.40
BTTS40%40%40%
Clean Sheet30%40%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWL1.24
HomeDDDWL1.20
AwayLLWWL1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%32%36%
AVG goals2.822.962.68
Over 1.5 %68%76%60%
Over 2.5 %50%56%44%
Over 3.5 %38%40%36%
Scored1.361.321.40
Conceded1.461.641.28
BTTS50%64%36%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Limavady UnitedLimavady United3881
63%
2.1
6934+35
2.7
68%
47%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.9
-
2Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3872
58%
1.9
5539+16
2.5
71%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.0
-
3H&W WeldersH&W Welders3866
50%
1.7
8748+39
3.6
92%
76%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
4Newington YouthNewington Youth3860
47%
1.6
7762+15
3.7
87%
74%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
5InstituteInstitute3859
45%
1.6
5946+13
2.8
71%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6QueenQueen's University3857
39%
1.5
5146+5
2.6
76%
39%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
7LoughgallLoughgall3856
37%
1.5
5038+12
2.3
74%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
8ArdsArds3852
39%
1.4
5651+5
2.8
74%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town3841
29%
1.1
4553-8
2.6
58%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
10Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3838
24%
1.0
4460-16
2.7
68%
55%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
11DundelaDundela3828
13%
0.7
4377-34
3.2
89%
68%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12Armagh CityArmagh City3819
11%
0.5
30112-82
3.7
87%
71%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.9
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches