Queen's University vs Ballinamallard United Result & Analysis

Queen's University are the clear favourites, with the model giving them a 53% chance to win, 28% for a draw and 20% for Ballinamallard United. The expected total is 2.4 goals, so a 2-goal game is the most likely total, with a 27% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 13.1%. Queen's, playing at home against a weaker side, average 1.25 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Ballinamallard, away against a stronger opponent, average only 0.67 goals scored and 2.25 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with 76.9% and Over 1.5 with 71.3%. The home win probability is 53%, the draw 28% and the away win 20%. Queen's recent form shows a 2-game winning run, while Ballinamallard come off a defeat. This match should see the home side edge the contest, though the total and score predictions hint at a tight, low-scoring affair.

The upset came as Queen's University, the pre-match favourite, fell short of the model’s 53% home-win expectation, and the game finished 0-3 in favour of Ballinamallard United. The model’s call was wrong, as the actual result was an away win. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 76.9% probability, while its Over 1.5 pick also hit at 71.3%. Queen's recent form, a two-game winning run, had set the stage, but Ballinamallard, despite a weaker away record, capitalised. The final score of 0-3 confirmed the surprise, overturning the pre-match narrative.