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Queen's University vs H&W Welders Result & Analysis

Date: 11/08/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 2-1
Queen
Queen's University
Vs
32%
27%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The Northern-Ireland: Championship match between Queen's University and H&W Welders on August 11th is likely to be a closely contested affair, with H&W Welders' recent 3-game winning run and 3-0 victory over Warrenpoint Town making them a favourite to win. The model predicts an away win, and the expected total goals is 3.0, suggesting a high-scoring match. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.4%.

Queen's University has struggled at home, scoring 0.91 goals per game and conceding 1.09, while H&W Welders have averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded when playing away against similar opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 80.6% probability.

The home win percentage is 32%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 42%. The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5, with an 80.6% probability.

Results analysis

The win by Queen's University extends their unbeaten run in their last 5 matches, having previously drawn with H&W Welders. In a major upset, the home side defied the odds to secure a 2-1 victory over the pre-match favourite, H&W Welders. The model's selection, H&W Welders to win away, was incorrect, given a pre-match probability of 42%. Meanwhile, the model's suggestion of Over 1.5 goals was correct, with the final score meeting this requirement. The model's selection of H&W Welders to win away was wrong, while the suggestion of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 80.6%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Queen's University win✓ Hit
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders win✗ Miss
41.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

QueenQueen's University

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-802L02L10W81W32W02L40W00D10W11DA·NEW28/02H·LIM11/03A·INS14/03H·ARM21/03A·H&W28/03H·NEW04/04A·ANN11/04H·LOU18/04A·LIM24/04A·ARM08/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.171.431.211.121.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.070.931.001.001.140.86
vs Weaker (16)1.441.381.861.431.111.33
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L31W11D14L23L00D02L42W40W30WA·ANN28/02H·DUN10/03A·BAL14/03H·LIM21/03H·QUE28/03A·LIM03/04A·LOU11/04A·NEW18/04H·ANN24/04H·WAR08/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.371.272.691.252.001.29
vs Stronger (17)2.241.412.111.222.381.62
vs Similar (6)1.001.831.502.250.001.00
vs Weaker (7)3.860.436.000.002.250.75
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's University) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.6%
Under 1.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.7%
Under 2.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.3%
Under 3.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.4%
No
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-2
9.0%
2-1 ✓
7.7%
0-1
7.2%
0-2
6.6%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
6.1%
1-0
6.0%
Queen's University goals ↓
H&W Welders goals →
01234
06.3%7.2%6.6%3.5%1.4%
16.0%12%9.0%4.8%1.9%
24.8%7.7%6.1%3.3%1.3%
32.2%3.5%2.8%1.5%0.6%
40.7%1.2%0.9%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Queen's University goals (down), columns = H&W Welders goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Queen's University is 0.40 points worse than H&W Welders in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Queen's University is 0.40 goals better than H&W Welders in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Queen's University is 0.40 goals worse than H&W Welders in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.60).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

QueenQueen's University

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L00D30W11D00D00D00D10W01LA·NEW28/02H·LIM11/03A·INS14/03H·ARM21/03A·H&W28/03H·NEW04/04A·ANN11/04H·LOU18/04A·LIM24/04A·ARM08/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.570.710.640.250.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.290.290.570.290.000.29
vs Weaker (16)0.620.810.861.000.440.67
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D20W01L03L11D00D01L11D30W10WA·ANN28/02H·DUN10/03A·BAL14/03H·LIM21/03H·QUE28/03A·LIM03/04A·LOU11/04A·NEW18/04H·ANN24/04H·WAR08/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.731.560.620.930.86
vs Stronger (17)1.410.761.440.441.381.12
vs Similar (6)0.671.171.001.500.000.50
vs Weaker (7)1.430.292.670.000.500.50
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's University) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Queen's University over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

QueenQueen's University

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L01L10W51W21W02L40W00D00D10WA·NEW28/02H·LIM11/03A·INS14/03H·ARM21/03A·H&W28/03H·NEW04/04A·ANN11/04H·LOU18/04A·LIM24/04A·ARM08/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.600.710.570.880.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.790.640.430.711.140.57
vs Weaker (16)0.810.561.000.430.670.67
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D10W11D12L00D01L31W10W20WA·ANN28/02H·DUN10/03A·BAL14/03H·LIM21/03H·QUE28/03A·LIM03/04A·LOU11/04A·NEW18/04H·ANN24/04H·WAR08/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.531.120.621.070.43
vs Stronger (17)0.820.650.670.781.000.50
vs Similar (6)0.330.670.500.750.000.50
vs Weaker (7)2.430.143.330.001.750.25
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's University) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Queen's University over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
QU wins
2
Draws
1
HW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Queen's University vs H&W Welders · H/A from QU
DateH/AGameScore
28/03/26AH&W Welders Vs QU2-3
17/01/26HQU Vs H&W Welders2-2
22/11/25AH&W Welders Vs QU1-1
30/08/25HQU Vs H&W Welders0-3

QueenQueen's University

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26AArmagh City Vs QU1-1
24/04/26ALimavady United Vs QU0-1
18/04/26HQU Vs Loughgall0-0
11/04/26AAnnagh United Vs QU0-4
04/04/26HQU Vs Newington Youth0-2
28/03/26AH&W Welders Vs QU2-3
21/03/26HQU Vs Armagh City8-1
14/03/26AInstitute Vs QU0-1
11/03/26HQU Vs Limavady United0-2
28/02/26ANewington Youth Vs QU2-0

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26HHW Vs Warrenpoint Town3-0
24/04/26HHW Vs Annagh United4-0
18/04/26ANewington Youth Vs HW2-4
11/04/26ALoughgall Vs HW2-0
03/04/26ALimavady United Vs HW0-0
28/03/26HHW Vs Queen's University2-3
21/03/26HHW Vs Limavady United1-4
14/03/26ABallinamallard United Vs HW1-1
10/03/26HHW Vs Dundela3-1
28/02/26AAnnagh United Vs HW2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Queen
Queen's University
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWD1.49
HomeDLWLD1.45
AwayWWWWD1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %39%35%43%
AVG goals2.542.552.52
Over 1.5 %78%70%86%
Over 2.5 %39%45%33%
Over 3.5 %24%25%24%
Scored1.341.401.29
Conceded1.201.151.24
BTTS39%40%38%
Clean Sheet32%35%29%
Corners---
Cards---
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWW1.70
HomeWLLWW1.72
AwayLDDLW1.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%52%48%
AVG goals3.483.643.32
Over 1.5 %86%88%84%
Over 2.5 %72%76%68%
Over 3.5 %42%44%40%
Scored2.202.362.04
Conceded1.281.281.28
BTTS58%64%52%
Clean Sheet30%28%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
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Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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