Queen's University face Loughgall in a match that feels razor-thin, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are narrow. The predicted probabilities are 39% for a Queen's victory, 30% for a draw and 31% for a Loughgall triumph. The average goal count sits at 2.4, and the most likely total is two goals, with a 28% chance. The single scoreline the model sees as most probable is 1-1, carrying a 14.4% probability.
Queen's, playing at home against a weaker side, have been scoring 1.88 goals per game while conceding 1.38. Loughgall, on the road against a stronger opponent, average only 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Loughgall’s recent unbeaten run (DWDDW) and a 3-3 draw against Warrenpoint Town contrast with Queen’s 2-game winning streak and a 3-0 win over Ards.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.4%), Under 5.5 (96.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.0%), Under 4.5 (90.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (90.1%) and Home +2 handicap (87.3%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Queen's University win
38.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Loughgall win
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Queen's University
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.23
1.79
1.29
1.25
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.57
1.00
1.67
1.17
1.50
0.88
vs Weaker (16)
1.44
1.44
1.88
1.38
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Loughgall
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.00
1.71
1.06
1.00
0.92
vs Stronger (6)
2.00
0.67
2.75
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.12
1.25
1.25
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
1.00
1.60
1.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's University) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.6%
Under 1.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.0%
Under 2.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.3%
Under 3.5
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.1%
No
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.7%
1-0
10.6%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.3%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
5.7%
Queen's University goals ↓
Loughgall goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.0%
5.7%
2.1%
0.6%
1
11%
14%
7.2%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.5%
8.3%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.2%
3.5%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Queen's University goals (down), columns = Loughgall goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Queen's University is 0.20 points better than Loughgall in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Queen's University is 0.20 goals better than Loughgall in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Queen's University is 0.40 goals better than Loughgall in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Queen's University or Draw
69.2%
Avg Implied -
39%
30%
31%
covers Queen's University + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Queen's University or Loughgall
69.6%
Avg Implied -
39%
30%
31%
covers Queen's University + Loughgall
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Loughgall
61.2%
Avg Implied -
39%
30%
31%
covers Draw + Loughgall
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Queen's University over/under 0.5
Over
71.7%
Under
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 1.5
Over
36.0%
Under
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 2.5
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 0.5
Over
66.7%
Under
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5
Over
30.1%
Under
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Queen's University, so a minus line means Queen's University give that many goals of a start and Loughgall receive them. At -1, Queen's University must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Queen's University win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Queen's University)
Queen's University -2
6.1%
Draw -2
11.7%
Loughgall +2
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Queen's University)
Queen's University -1
17.8%
Draw -1
21.0%
Loughgall +1
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Queen's University)
Queen's University +1
69.2%
Draw +1
18.1%
Loughgall -1
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Queen's University)
Queen's University +2
87.3%
Draw +2
8.8%
Loughgall -2
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Queen's University
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.93
0.71
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.43
0.83
0.33
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.69
0.88
1.00
1.00
0.38
0.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Loughgall
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.59
0.41
0.54
0.54
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.17
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.71
0.50
0.62
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.14
0.60
0.20
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's University) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.9%
Under 0.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.1%
Under 1.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.5%
Under 2.5
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Queen's University over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.4%
Under
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.3%
Under
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Queen's University
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
0.86
0.57
0.94
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.57
0.83
0.83
1.25
0.38
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.56
0.88
0.38
0.62
0.75
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Loughgall
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
1.12
0.65
0.46
0.38
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.41
0.75
0.62
0.44
0.22
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.86
1.00
0.80
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's University) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.6%
Under 0.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.7%
Under 1.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.8%
Under 2.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Queen's University over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.9%
Under
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.2%
Under
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →