PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Queen's University vs Moyola Park Prediction & Stats

Date: 26/09/2026
Time: 14:00
Queen
Queen's University
Vs
51%
25%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Moyola Park
Moyola Park
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Queen's University are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model picking a home win and a 51% chance of victory. The encounter is expected to be a high-scoring affair, averaging 3.0 goals, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 24% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.8% chance, reflecting the evenly matched offensive output of both sides. Queen's have been scoring 1.67 goals and conceding 1.17 at home against similar opposition, while Moyola Park have managed 2.0 goals and conceded 2.0 on the road. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 6.5 (96.7%), Under 5.5 (91.7%), Home +2 handicap (90.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.5%) and Home over 0.5 goals (83.7%). Queen's win probability sits at 51%, draw at 25%, and Moyola Park win at 24%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Queen's University win
51.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park win
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

QueenQueen's University

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W02L40W00D10W11D21W12L41W30WA·H&W28/03H·NEW04/04A·ANN11/04H·LOU18/04A·LIM24/04A·ARM08/08H·H&W11/08A·NEW15/08H·INS22/08A·ARD28/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.231.791.291.251.19
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.571.001.671.171.500.88
vs Weaker (16)1.441.441.881.381.001.50
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D13L20W02L10WA·DUN08/08H·STR11/08H·BAL15/08A·ANN22/08H·ARM28/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.401.331.001.002.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Weaker (3)1.331.001.331.00--
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's University) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.4%
Under 2.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.0%
Under 3.5
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.9%
No
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.3%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
6.3%
0-0
6.1%
3-1
5.9%
2-2
5.7%
Queen's University goals ↓
Moyola Park goals →
01234
06.1%4.8%3.5%1.4%0.4%
18.1%12%6.3%2.5%0.7%
28.3%9.7%5.7%2.2%0.7%
35.0%5.9%3.5%1.4%0.4%
42.3%2.7%1.6%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Queen's University goals (down), columns = Moyola Park goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Queen's University is 0.60 points better than Moyola Park in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Queen's University is 1.00 goals better than Moyola Park in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.20).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Queen's University is 0.40 goals better than Moyola Park in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.40).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Queen's University or Draw
76.4%
Avg Implied -
51%
25%
24%
covers Queen's University + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Queen's University or Moyola Park
74.8%
Avg Implied -
51%
25%
24%
covers Queen's University + Moyola Park
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Moyola Park
48.7%
Avg Implied -
51%
25%
24%
covers Draw + Moyola Park
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Queen's University over/under 0.5
Over
83.7%
Under
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 1.5
Over
54.1%
Under
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 2.5
Over
27.3%
Under
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 3.5
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5
Over
69.1%
Under
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5
Over
32.8%
Under
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Queen's University, so a minus line means Queen's University give that many goals of a start and Moyola Park receive them. At -1, Queen's University must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Queen's University win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Queen's University)
Queen's University -2
13.4%
Draw -2
16.0%
Moyola Park +2
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Queen's University)
Queen's University -1
29.3%
Draw -1
21.9%
Moyola Park +1
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Queen's University)
Queen's University +1
76.4%
Draw +1
13.8%
Moyola Park -1
9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Queen's University)
Queen's University +2
90.3%
Draw +2
6.7%
Moyola Park -2
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

QueenQueen's University

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D00D00D10W01L21W02L11D20WA·H&W28/03H·NEW04/04A·ANN11/04H·LOU18/04A·LIM24/04A·ARM08/08H·H&W11/08A·NEW15/08H·INS22/08A·ARD28/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.930.710.310.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.500.430.830.330.250.50
vs Weaker (16)0.690.881.001.000.380.75
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L00D00D00DA·DUN08/08H·STR11/08H·BAL15/08A·ANN22/08H·ARM28/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.200.600.330.670.000.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)0.000.50--0.000.50
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.330.67--
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's University) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Queen's University over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

QueenQueen's University

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W02L40W00D00D10W00D10W30W10WA·H&W28/03H·NEW04/04A·ANN11/04H·LOU18/04A·LIM24/04A·ARM08/08H·H&W11/08A·NEW15/08H·INS22/08A·ARD28/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.570.860.570.940.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.070.570.830.831.250.38
vs Weaker (16)0.750.560.880.380.620.75
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L20W02L10WA·DUN08/08H·STR11/08H·BAL15/08A·ANN22/08H·ARM28/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.801.000.331.001.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.001.50--1.001.50
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.33--
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's University) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Queen's University over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's University over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.8%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.8%-------
Under 6.596.7%-------
Under 5.591.7%-------
Home +2 handicap90.3%-------
Home under 3.5 goals88.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals88.5%-------
Home over 0.5 goals83.7%-------
Under 4.581.7%-------
Over 1.581.0%-------
Home or Draw76.4%-------
Home +1 handicap76.4%-------
Home or Away74.8%-------
Home under 2.5 goals72.7%-------
Away +2 handicap70.7%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
QU wins
0
Draws
0
MP wins

Head-to-head

Queen's University vs Moyola Park · H/A from QU
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

QueenQueen's University

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26AArds Vs QU0-3
22/08/26HQU Vs Institute4-1
15/08/26ANewington Youth Vs QU2-1
11/08/26HQU Vs H&W Welders2-1
08/08/26AArmagh City Vs QU1-1
24/04/26ALimavady United Vs QU0-1
18/04/26HQU Vs Loughgall0-0
11/04/26AAnnagh United Vs QU0-4
04/04/26HQU Vs Newington Youth0-2
28/03/26AH&W Welders Vs QU2-3

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HMP Vs Armagh City1-0
22/08/26AAnnagh United Vs MP2-0
15/08/26HMP Vs Ballinamallard United2-0
11/08/26HMP Vs Strabane Athletic1-3
08/08/26ADundela Vs MP2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Queen
Queen's University
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWW1.56
HomeWLDWW1.59
AwayWWDLW1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%41%43%
AVG goals2.622.682.57
Over 1.5 %80%73%87%
Over 2.5 %44%50%39%
Over 3.5 %24%27%22%
Scored1.441.551.35
Conceded1.181.141.22
BTTS42%45%39%
Clean Sheet31%32%30%
Corners---
Cards---
Moyola Park
Moyola Park
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLW1.40
HomeLWW2.00
AwayDL0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%67%0%
AVG goals2.602.333.00
Over 1.5 %80%67%100%
Over 2.5 %40%33%50%
Over 3.5 %40%33%50%
Scored1.201.331.00
Conceded1.401.002.00
BTTS40%33%50%
Clean Sheet40%67%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches