This opponent (Amorebieta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Amorebieta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.43
1.27
0.67
0.87
2.20
vs Stronger (19)
1.11
1.53
1.33
0.89
0.90
2.10
vs Similar (11)
1.00
1.27
1.17
0.33
0.80
2.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Ferrol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.9%
@ 2.35+11.9%
Under 2.5
48.1%
@ 1.57-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.7%
Under 3.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-0
11.0%
1-0 ✓
10.8%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.4%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
6.1%
1-2
4.7%
Racing Ferrol goals ↓
Amorebieta goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
4.7%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
4.7%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
6.8%
6.1%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.2%
2.8%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Racing Ferrol goals (down), columns = Amorebieta goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leganes
1.76
Valladolid
1.71
Espanyol
1.65
Eibar
1.64
Oviedo
1.54
Racing Santander
1.52
Sporting Gijon
1.50
Burgos
1.40
Levante
1.40
Elche
1.40
Racing Ferrol
1.40
Tenerife
1.33
FC Cartagena
1.21
Zaragoza
1.21
Albacete
1.21
Eldense
1.19
Huesca
1.17
Mirandes
1.17
Amorebieta
1.07
Alcorcon
1.05
Villarreal II
1.02
FC Andorra
1.02
Racing Ferrol is 0.33 points better than Amorebieta in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 1.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Eibar
1.64
Racing Santander
1.50
Espanyol
1.35
Leganes
1.33
Oviedo
1.26
Burgos
1.24
Valladolid
1.21
Albacete
1.19
Levante
1.17
Racing Ferrol
1.17
Sporting Gijon
1.16
Mirandes
1.12
Eldense
1.10
Elche
1.02
Zaragoza
1.00
Villarreal II
0.98
Tenerife
0.90
Amorebieta
0.88
FC Cartagena
0.88
Huesca
0.86
FC Andorra
0.79
Alcorcon
0.76
Racing Ferrol is 0.29 goals better than Amorebieta in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leganes
0.64
Huesca
0.79
Valladolid
0.86
Oviedo
0.89
Espanyol
0.89
Tenerife
0.98
Sporting Gijon
0.98
Zaragoza
1.00
Levante
1.07
Elche
1.10
Eibar
1.14
FC Cartagena
1.21
Racing Ferrol
1.24
Amorebieta
1.26
FC Andorra
1.26
Alcorcon
1.26
Burgos
1.29
Racing Santander
1.31
Mirandes
1.31
Eldense
1.33
Albacete
1.33
Villarreal II
1.48
Racing Ferrol is 0.02 goals better than Amorebieta in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
63%
Elche
58%
Valladolid
56%
Eibar
55%
Oviedo
54%
Sporting Gijon
54%
Levante
52%
Racing Ferrol
52%
Espanyol
51%
Zaragoza
50%
Villarreal II
50%
Tenerife
50%
Albacete
49%
Racing Santander
47%
Burgos
47%
Amorebieta
46%
Leganes
46%
Eldense
45%
Huesca
45%
Mirandes
45%
FC Cartagena
44%
Alcorcon
42%
Racing Ferrol is 5.8 percentage points better than Amorebieta in terms of average possession (52% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Racing Ferrol
For 4.4 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 13.1 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Amorebieta
For 6.0 · Against 3.3 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.6 · Against 10.4 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Racing Ferrol
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (8)
8.2
9.7
7.4
3.1
2.7
3.4
24.4
24.0
24.6
vs Stronger (6)
8.2
8.0
8.2
2.7
1.5
3.2
25.3
24.5
25.8
vs Similar (2)
8.5
13.0
4.0
4.5
5.0
4.0
21.5
23.0
20.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
25%
33%
20%
50%
33%
60%
50%
67%
40%
% under line
75%
67%
80%
50%
67%
40%
50%
33%
60%
This opponent (Amorebieta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Amorebieta
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.2
9.7
4.2
4.7
3.6
25.9
26.4
25.3
vs Stronger (32)
9.0
9.1
8.9
4.1
4.6
3.6
25.8
27.5
24.2
vs Similar (18)
10.2
9.4
11.0
4.2
4.8
3.7
25.9
24.6
27.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
44%
44%
56%
60%
52%
84%
88%
80%
% under line
56%
56%
56%
44%
40%
48%
16%
12%
20%
This opponent (Racing Ferrol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Huesca
10.4
Espanyol
10.3
Mirandes
10.1
Valladolid
10.0
Sporting Gijon
9.9
Amorebieta
9.4
Levante
9.4
Eibar
9.3
Elche
9.3
Burgos
9.3
Zaragoza
9.3
Racing Santander
9.2
Oviedo
9.0
Alcorcon
8.9
Villarreal II
8.8
Tenerife
8.7
FC Cartagena
8.7
Leganes
8.5
Racing Ferrol
8.2
Albacete
8.2
Eldense
8.1
FC Andorra
7.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
5.9
Espanyol
5.8
Levante
5.5
Huesca
5.4
Zaragoza
5.3
Valladolid
5.1
Albacete
5.1
Tenerife
5.1
Sporting Gijon
5.1
Oviedo
5.0
FC Cartagena
5.0
Mirandes
5.0
Elche
4.9
Leganes
4.9
Villarreal II
4.9
Eibar
4.7
Alcorcon
4.6
Burgos
4.3
FC Andorra
4.2
Amorebieta
4.2
Eldense
3.7
Racing Ferrol
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Racing Santander
33.1
Leganes
29.2
Albacete
28.7
FC Cartagena
28.7
Huesca
27.8
Tenerife
27.6
Oviedo
27.4
Valladolid
27.3
Espanyol
26.6
Alcorcon
26.5
Elche
26.4
Eldense
26.1
Zaragoza
26.0
Levante
26.0
Villarreal II
25.9
Amorebieta
25.9
FC Andorra
25.9
Mirandes
25.4
Eibar
24.9
Burgos
24.7
Racing Ferrol
24.4
Sporting Gijon
24.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.4%
Under 9.5
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
60.6%
Under 3.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
76.0%
Under 21.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Racing Ferrol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.12
0.38
0.00
0.33
0.20
0.40
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Amorebieta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Amorebieta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.47
0.33
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (19)
0.63
0.63
0.67
0.56
0.60
0.70
vs Similar (11)
0.18
0.55
0.17
0.00
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Ferrol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Racing Ferrol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Amorebieta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Amorebieta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Amorebieta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Racing Ferrol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.75
1.67
0.33
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.67
1.50
0.00
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Amorebieta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Amorebieta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.80
0.33
0.40
1.33
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
0.89
0.67
0.33
0.30
1.40
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.73
1.00
0.33
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Ferrol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Racing Ferrol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Amorebieta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Amorebieta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Amorebieta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Racing Ferrol
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nico Serrano29%
Álvaro Giménez24%
Iker Losada21%
Carlos Vicente19%
Josep Señé17%
Álvaro Vadillo12%
Heber Pena Picos11%
Óscar Pinchi9%
Sabin Merino8%
Jon Garcia5%
Manu Justo5%
Alex López3%
Julián Delmás0%
Ander Cantero0%
Nacho Sánchez0%
Francisco De La Manzanara0%
Moises Delgado0%
Chuca0%
Álex Martín0%
Jesús Bernal0%
Enrique Clemente0%
David Castro0%
Sergio Cubero0%
Brais Martínez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Moises Delgado27%
Álvaro Vadillo25%
Jon Garcia24%
David Castro24%
Óscar Pinchi18%
Jesús Bernal17%
Brais Martínez17%
Sergio Cubero15%
Alex López12%
Álex Martín12%
Heber Pena Picos11%
Álvaro Giménez11%
Josep Señé10%
Enrique Clemente10%
Carlos Vicente10%
Nacho Sánchez8%
Nico Serrano7%
Francisco De La Manzanara7%
Sabin Merino6%
Julián Delmás5%
Manu Justo5%
Ander Cantero2%
Chuca0%
Iker Losada0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Heber Pena Picos22%
Carlos Vicente19%
Iker Losada14%
Nico Serrano14%
Álvaro Giménez11%
Óscar Pinchi9%
Nacho Sánchez8%
Jon Garcia5%
Jesús Bernal5%
Josep Señé3%
Sergio Cubero3%
David Castro3%
Alex López0%
Álvaro Vadillo0%
Julián Delmás0%
Ander Cantero0%
Sabin Merino0%
Francisco De La Manzanara0%
Moises Delgado0%
Chuca0%
Álex Martín0%
Manu Justo0%
Enrique Clemente0%
Brais Martínez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nico Serrano29%
Carlos Vicente19%
Iker Losada17%
Álvaro Giménez13%
Heber Pena Picos8%
Alex López6%
Sabin Merino6%
Nacho Sánchez4%
Sergio Cubero3%
Jon Garcia3%
Álvaro Vadillo0%
Julián Delmás0%
Ander Cantero0%
Francisco De La Manzanara0%
Moises Delgado0%
Chuca0%
Josep Señé0%
Óscar Pinchi0%
Álex Martín0%
Manu Justo0%
Jesús Bernal0%
Enrique Clemente0%
David Castro0%
Brais Martínez0%
Amorebieta
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Iker Unzueta Arregui25%
Eneko Jauregi16%
Félix Garreta13%
Manu Hernando9%
Javier Eraso9%
Ryan Edwards8%
Jon Morcillo8%
Josué Dorrio7%
Javier Avilés7%
Unai Bustinza6%
Álvaro Núñez5%
Josep Gayá5%
Rayco Rodriguez3%
Kwasi Sibo3%
Jürgen Locadia0%
Erik Morán0%
Jorge Mier0%
Daniel Lasure0%
Àlex Carbonell0%
Xabier Etxeita0%
Jorge Yriarte0%
Cosimo Marco Da Graca0%
Jon Mikel Magunagoitia0%
Iker Seguin0%
Pablo Cunat0%
Angel Troncho0%
Luis Quintero0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josep Gayá33%
Unai Bustinza29%
Manu Hernando23%
Kwasi Sibo21%
Álvaro Núñez21%
Iker Seguin20%
Félix Garreta19%
Xabier Etxeita19%
Erik Morán19%
Daniel Lasure17%
Àlex Carbonell16%
Jorge Mier10%
Javier Eraso9%
Cosimo Marco Da Graca8%
Eneko Jauregi8%
Josué Dorrio7%
Javier Avilés7%
Jorge Yriarte7%
Jon Mikel Magunagoitia6%
Ryan Edwards6%
Luis Quintero6%
Jon Morcillo5%
Pablo Cunat4%
Rayco Rodriguez3%
Jürgen Locadia0%
Iker Unzueta Arregui0%
Angel Troncho0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Erik Morán12%
Josué Dorrio12%
Daniel Lasure7%
Rayco Rodriguez7%
Luis Quintero6%
Eneko Jauregi5%
Jon Morcillo5%
Álvaro Núñez5%
Xabier Etxeita4%
Félix Garreta3%
Kwasi Sibo0%
Jürgen Locadia0%
Ryan Edwards0%
Jorge Mier0%
Àlex Carbonell0%
Unai Bustinza0%
Javier Eraso0%
Javier Avilés0%
Jorge Yriarte0%
Iker Unzueta Arregui0%
Cosimo Marco Da Graca0%
Manu Hernando0%
Jon Mikel Magunagoitia0%
Iker Seguin0%
Josep Gayá0%
Pablo Cunat0%
Angel Troncho0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jürgen Locadia25%
Jon Morcillo14%
Eneko Jauregi11%
Josué Dorrio7%
Iker Unzueta Arregui5%
Javier Eraso4%
Daniel Lasure3%
Àlex Carbonell3%
Álvaro Núñez3%
Kwasi Sibo0%
Ryan Edwards0%
Erik Morán0%
Jorge Mier0%
Rayco Rodriguez0%
Unai Bustinza0%
Javier Avilés0%
Xabier Etxeita0%
Jorge Yriarte0%
Cosimo Marco Da Graca0%
Manu Hernando0%
Jon Mikel Magunagoitia0%
Iker Seguin0%
Josep Gayá0%
Pablo Cunat0%
Angel Troncho0%
Félix Garreta0%
Luis Quintero0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Spain: Segunda División 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →