Racing Santander’s recent win over Elche and Alaves’ victory against Villarreal set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model projecting an average of 3.3 goals. The most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11% chance. The favored result is a home win, with probabilities of 47% for Racing, 25% for a draw, and 28% for Alaves. Racing’s home form shows a robust 3.0 goals scored and 1.22 conceded against similar opposition, while Alaves averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded on the road. Suggested selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.6% (edge 3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.3% (edge 4%), Under 7.5 at 95.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.6% (edge 2%), Over 19.5 fouls at 92.4%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 92.3% (edge 2%), Under 6.5 at 89.6%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 88.9%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Racing Santander win
48.9%
Avg Implied 39.0% · @ 2.42
Edge
+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.52
1xBet
2.50
10Bet
2.46
Marathonbet
2.46
Dafabet
2.45
Draw
24.6%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.38
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.56
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Pinnacle
3.41
Dafabet
3.40
Alaves win
26.5%
Avg Implied 33.1% · @ 2.85
Edge
-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.94
Dafabet
2.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Racing Santander
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.47
2.50
1.56
1.21
1.36
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.67
1.33
1.67
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.94
1.18
3.00
1.22
0.75
1.12
vs Weaker (10)
2.00
1.90
2.25
2.25
1.83
1.67
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alaves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.50
1.47
1.24
1.31
1.85
vs Stronger (12)
1.33
1.67
1.38
1.38
1.25
2.25
vs Similar (18)
1.44
1.39
1.56
1.11
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Santander) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.0%
@ 1.26+9.8%
Under 1.5
16.0%
@ 3.63-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Under
Pinnacle
3.81
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.56
1xBet
3.56
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.2%
@ 1.90+12.0%
Under 2.5
37.8%
@ 1.92-12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.96
Betano
1.93
SBO
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Under
1xBet
1.98
Pinnacle
1.96
SBO
1.94
Betano
1.93
10Bet
1.93
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.0%
@ 3.16+10.3%
Under 3.5
60.0%
@ 1.33-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.30
Bet365
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Betano
3.20
Pinnacle
3.12
Under
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.32
Both teams to score
Yes
63.5%
@ 1.68+8.0%
No
36.5%
@ 2.08-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.70
10Bet
1.67
Unibet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
No
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.11
Betfair
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%@ 6.08+3.8%
2-1
9.5%@ 8.79+4.4%
2-0
7.1%@ 11.37+3.1%
1-2
6.8%@ 9.59+2.1%
1-0
6.5%@ 8.13+1.0%
2-2
6.3%@ 12.17+2.7%
3-1
5.9%@ 17.19+3.3%
0-0
5.0%@ 10.34+0.7%
Racing Santander goals ↓
Alaves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
4.4%
3.6%
1.6%
0.5%
1
6.5%
11%
6.8%
3.0%
1.0%
2
7.1%
9.5%
6.3%
2.8%
0.9%
3
4.4%
5.9%
4.0%
1.8%
0.6%
4
2.1%
2.8%
1.8%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Racing Santander goals (down), columns = Alaves goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Racing Santander is 0.03 points worse than Alaves in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Racing Santander is 0.08 goals worse than Alaves in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.16).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Racing Santander is 0.21 goals worse than Alaves in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Racing Santander
For 5.9 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 15.5 · Total 30.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alaves
For 5.7 · Against 6.2 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 12.6 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Racing Santander
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.8
9.7
5.9
5.3
6.6
26.9
25.9
28.0
vs Stronger (3)
13.7
13.7
-
6.0
6.0
-
24.0
24.0
-
vs Similar (27)
10.5
10.8
10.1
6.2
4.9
7.4
28.0
25.8
30.2
vs Weaker (20)
10.8
12.6
9.1
5.5
5.7
5.5
25.8
26.7
25.1
% over line
66%
76%
55%
82%
72%
92%
83%
84%
83%
% under line
34%
24%
45%
18%
28%
8%
17%
16%
17%
This opponent (Alaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.1
10.1
4.7
4.9
4.4
28.6
28.6
28.7
vs Stronger (16)
10.6
10.3
10.9
4.4
4.7
4.1
27.2
27.4
27.0
vs Similar (32)
10.7
11.5
9.9
4.9
5.0
4.9
29.1
29.2
29.1
vs Weaker (2)
8.0
-
8.0
2.5
-
2.5
36.0
-
36.0
% over line
56%
62%
50%
70%
74%
65%
94%
92%
95%
% under line
44%
38%
50%
30%
26%
35%
6%
8%
5%
This opponent (Racing Santander) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.3
Levante
10.1
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Osasuna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Getafe
8.7
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Getafe
5.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.6
Sevilla
5.2
Malaga
5.2
Real Sociedad
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Osasuna
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.4
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.7
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
26.1
Rayo Vallecano
25.6
Athletic Club
25.1
Osasuna
25.0
Celta Vigo
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.7
Levante
24.4
Valencia
24.3
Real Madrid
23.6
Deportivo La Coruna
23.4
Real Betis
23.3
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
62.7%
@ 1.76+10.5%
Under 9.5
37.3%
@ 1.92-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.76
Under
Unibet
1.92
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
74.0%
Under 3.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
84.5%
Under 21.5
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Racing Santander or Draw
66.9%
Avg Implied 66.7% · @ 1.41
Edge
+0.2%
49%
25%
27%
covers Racing Santander + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
10Bet
1.44
William Hil
1.40
Racing Santander or Alaves
77.8%
Avg Implied 72.5% · @ 1.30
Edge
+5.3%
49%
25%
27%
covers Racing Santander + Alaves
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Draw or Alaves
55.2%
Avg Implied 60.8% · @ 1.54
Edge
-5.6%
49%
25%
27%
covers Draw + Alaves
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
William Hil
1.55
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.53
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Racing Santander over/under 0.5
Over
88.0%
@ 1.25+13.3%
Under
12.0%
@ 3.68-13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Under
Pinnacle
3.94
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
1xBet
3.70
Racing Santander over/under 1.5
Over
62.5%
@ 2.24+20.8%
Under
37.5%
@ 1.60-20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.29
Betano
2.27
10Bet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Racing Santander over/under 2.5
Over
35.5%
@ 5.05+17.1%
Under
64.5%
@ 1.14-17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.25
Betfair
5.20
1xBet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Racing Santander over/under 3.5
Over
16.5%
@ 12.00+8.5%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.03-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
11.75
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Alaves over/under 0.5
Over
83.7%
@ 1.30+12.2%
Under
16.3%
@ 3.27-12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.37
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
Alaves over/under 1.5
Over
54.2%
@ 2.50+16.9%
Under
45.8%
@ 1.49-16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.60
Marathonbet
2.57
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Alaves over/under 2.5
Over
27.4%
@ 5.96+11.7%
Under
72.6%
@ 1.10-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
1xBet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Alaves over/under 3.5
Over
11.1%
@ 13.62+4.1%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.02-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Racing Santander, so a minus line means Racing Santander give that many goals of a start and Alaves receive them. At -1, Racing Santander must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Racing Santander win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Racing Santander)
Racing Santander -2
12.8%
@ 9.85+3.8%
Draw -2
13.5%
@ 6.26-0.6%
Alaves +2
73.7%
@ 1.15-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
6.25
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
4.55
Away
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Handicap -1 (Racing Santander)
Racing Santander -1
26.3%
@ 4.65+6.9%
Draw -1
18.5%
@ 4.07-3.7%
Alaves +1
55.2%
@ 1.55-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.30
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.80
Away
Marathonbet
1.59
Unibet
1.55
10Bet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Handicap +1 (Racing Santander)
Racing Santander +1
66.9%
@ 1.41+3.0%
Draw +1
15.7%
@ 4.44-4.6%
Alaves -1
17.3%
@ 5.71+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Draw
Marathonbet
4.65
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.35
10Bet
4.20
Away
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Handicap +2 (Racing Santander)
Racing Santander +2
82.7%
@ 1.10+2.7%
Draw +2
10.0%
@ 7.06-2.6%
Alaves -2
7.4%
@ 11.73-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
12.00
Unibet
12.00
Marathonbet
6.65
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Racing Santander
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
1.12
0.69
0.79
0.29
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.41
1.44
0.56
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.60
0.25
1.00
1.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.65
0.29
0.46
0.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
0.42
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.44
0.33
0.33
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Santander) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.7%
@ 1.37+4.4%
Under 0.5
27.3%
@ 2.96-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.12
William Hil
3.10
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.93
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.4%
@ 2.75+3.4%
Under 1.5
62.6%
@ 1.42-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.81
Marathonbet
2.81
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Under
William Hil
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
1xBet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.8%
@ 6.91+6.3%
Under 2.5
80.2%
@ 1.08-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
1xBet
7.30
Betfair
7.00
William Hil
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Racing Santander over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.4%
@ 1.97+2.4%
Under
50.6%
@ 1.75-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
1.99
Pinnacle
1.96
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
Racing Santander over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.6%
@ 6.28+3.8%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.09-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.70
1xBet
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Racing Santander over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.5%
@ 11.75-1.5%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.02+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Alaves over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.8%
@ 2.14-0.7%
Under
57.2%
@ 1.65+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Unibet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
Alaves over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.3%
@ 6.80+4.6%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.07-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.80
10Bet
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.05
Alaves over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.3%
@ 12.50-3.1%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Racing Santander
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.97
1.38
0.88
0.43
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.06
0.76
1.56
0.67
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
1.30
2.00
1.25
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.07
0.82
0.94
0.85
1.23
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.25
0.38
1.12
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.94
1.22
0.78
0.89
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Santander) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.4%
@ 1.23+6.9%
Under 0.5
16.6%
@ 3.98-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Betano
3.95
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
54.4%
@ 2.06+8.7%
Under 1.5
45.6%
@ 1.73-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Unibet
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Betano
2.05
Under
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.2%
@ 4.38+4.8%
Under 2.5
73.8%
@ 1.19-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.55
William Hil
4.50
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Racing Santander over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.1%
@ 1.69+6.2%
Under
38.9%
@ 2.06-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Under
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.06
Betano
2.05
Racing Santander over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.1%
@ 4.41+6.1%
Under
72.9%
@ 1.18-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Racing Santander over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.5%
@ 9.50+0.6%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.04-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Alaves over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.9%
@ 1.78-1.2%
Under
49.1%
@ 1.94+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.90
Alaves over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.7%
@ 4.91-4.2%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.15+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.55
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Alaves over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.4%
@ 10.25-2.7%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.03+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
Under 7.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.6%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+2.7%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.5%
Over 19.5 fouls
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-6.1%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.5%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
88.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-4.1%
Home over 0.5 goals
88.0%
1.25
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
+13.3%
Over 2.5 cards
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.3%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+4.2%
Over 21.5 fouls
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.0%
1.26
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
+9.8%
Away over 0.5 goals
83.7%
1.30
1xBet
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+12.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
83.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-8.5%
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.23
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+6.9%
Home +2 handicap
82.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
+2.7%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
81.7%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.05
-
-4.6%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.4%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
-
-3.8%
Under 2.5 HT goals
80.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
-6.3%
Under 5.5
79.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.01
-
-12.2%
Home or Away
77.8%
1.30
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
+5.3%
Over 8.5 corners
74.1%
1.47
Unibet
1.47
-
-
-
-
+11.6%
Over 3.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.8%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-4.8%
Away +2 handicap
73.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
-3.2%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.9%
1.18
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-6.1%
Over 23.5 fouls
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.7%
1.37
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
+4.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
72.6%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
-11.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Racing Santander
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andrés Martín33%
Yassir Zabiri33%
Sergio Canales0%
Iñigo Vicente0%
Asier Villalibre0%
Manu Hernando0%
Alvaro Mantilla0%
Julen Agirrezabala0%
Facundo González0%
Gustavo Puerta0%
Maguette Gueye0%
Jorge Salinas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alvaro Mantilla67%
Manu Hernando33%
Facundo González33%
Gustavo Puerta33%
Jorge Salinas33%
Sergio Canales0%
Andrés Martín0%
Iñigo Vicente0%
Asier Villalibre0%
Julen Agirrezabala0%
Maguette Gueye0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Iñigo Vicente33%
Sergio Canales0%
Andrés Martín0%
Asier Villalibre0%
Manu Hernando0%
Alvaro Mantilla0%
Julen Agirrezabala0%
Facundo González0%
Gustavo Puerta0%
Maguette Gueye0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Jorge Salinas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andrés Martín67%
Sergio Canales33%
Yassir Zabiri33%
Iñigo Vicente0%
Asier Villalibre0%
Manu Hernando0%
Alvaro Mantilla0%
Julen Agirrezabala0%
Facundo González0%
Gustavo Puerta0%
Maguette Gueye0%
Jorge Salinas0%
Alaves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mariano Díaz67%
Nahuel Tenaglia33%
Denis Suárez0%
Jonny Otto0%
Toni Martínez0%
Antonio Sivera0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Antonio Blanco0%
Abderrahman Rebbach0%
Ángel Pérez0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mariano Díaz67%
Abderrahman Rebbach67%
Denis Suárez33%
Nahuel Tenaglia33%
Antonio Sivera33%
Antonio Blanco33%
Jonny Otto0%
Toni Martínez0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Ángel Pérez0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mariano Díaz33%
Ángel Pérez33%
Denis Suárez0%
Nahuel Tenaglia0%
Jonny Otto0%
Toni Martínez0%
Antonio Sivera0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Antonio Blanco0%
Abderrahman Rebbach0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Toni Martínez67%
Antonio Blanco33%
Mariano Díaz0%
Denis Suárez0%
Nahuel Tenaglia0%
Jonny Otto0%
Antonio Sivera0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Abderrahman Rebbach0%
Ángel Pérez0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Racing Santander's squad is €21m more valuable than Alaves's (€89m vs €68m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Racing Santander's attack is €9m more valuable than Alaves's (€34m vs €24m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Racing Santander's midfield is €6m more valuable than Alaves's (€28m vs €22m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Racing Santander's defence is €6m more valuable than Alaves's (€28m vs €22m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga