Pythia gives Radnicki NIS a 42% win probability against Cukaricki in the Serbia: Super Liga on 2026-07-25, with 30% for the draw and 28% for Cukaricki. The model estimates around 2.4 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.2%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (94%), Over 21.5 fouls (88%), Over 2.5 cards (87%), Under 11.5 corners (84%).
Results analysis
Radnicki NIS finished 0-2 against Cukaricki (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 42% home win, 30% draw and 28% away win. Picks that landed: Over 2.5 cards (87%), Under 11.5 corners (84%), Under 3.5 (78%), Under 10.5 corners (76%), Over 3.5 cards (73%). Missed: Over 19.5 fouls (94%), Over 21.5 fouls (88%), Over 23.5 fouls (78%).
šÆ 1. Model Analysis
Radnicki NIS winā Miss
41.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawā Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cukaricki winā Hit
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
Radnicki NIS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.27
1.36
1.07
1.00
1.44
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
1.20
0.86
1.00
0.75
1.38
vs Similar (15)
1.53
1.33
1.86
1.14
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Cukaricki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cukaricki
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.23
1.43
1.29
0.81
1.19
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.87
1.27
1.17
1.33
0.67
1.22
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
1.00
1.75
1.00
1.40
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnicki NIS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.9%
Under 1.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.3%
Under 2.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.6%
Under 3.5
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.0%
No
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
11.0%
0-0
10.6%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.5%
2-0
8.2%
1-2
6.8%
0-2 ā
5.1%
Radnicki NIS goals ↓
Cukaricki goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.5%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.8%
2.4%
0.6%
2
8.2%
8.6%
4.5%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.6%
3.8%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.3%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Radnicki NIS goals (down), columns = Cukaricki goals (across).
šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
2.32
Vojvodina
2.05
FK Partizan
1.97
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
1.59
Novi Pazar
1.41
IMT Novi Beograd
1.35
OFK Beograd
1.32
Radnicki NIS
1.32
Radnik Surdulica
1.24
Mladost Lucani
1.24
Radnicki 1923
1.22
Cukaricki
1.22
Zemun
1.15
Macva
1.14
Radnicki NIS is 0.11 points better than Cukaricki in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.22).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
2.70
FK Partizan
1.95
Vojvodina
1.78
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
1.35
OFK Beograd
1.32
Cukaricki
1.27
Radnicki NIS
1.24
Novi Pazar
1.24
Radnik Surdulica
1.19
Zemun
1.13
Macva
1.12
Radnicki 1923
1.11
IMT Novi Beograd
1.11
Mladost Lucani
0.89
Radnicki NIS is 0.03 goals worse than Cukaricki in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.27).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.84
Vojvodina
0.95
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
1.00
Radnicki 1923
1.14
FK Partizan
1.22
OFK Beograd
1.27
Radnik Surdulica
1.30
Radnicki NIS
1.32
Cukaricki
1.35
IMT Novi Beograd
1.38
Mladost Lucani
1.41
Novi Pazar
1.46
Zemun
1.57
Macva
1.58
Radnicki NIS is 0.03 goals better than Cukaricki in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.35).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
FK Crvena Zvezda
67%
FK Partizan
59%
ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo
54%
Radnicki 1923
52%
OFK Beograd
51%
Vojvodina
50%
Radnicki NIS
50%
IMT Novi Beograd
48%
Cukaricki
46%
Radnik Surdulica
46%
Novi Pazar
45%
Mladost Lucani
41%
Radnicki NIS is 3.4 percentage points better than Cukaricki in terms of average possession (50% vs 46%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Radnicki NIS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.57
0.36
0.31
0.69
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
0.47
0.29
0.29
0.25
0.62
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.60
0.86
0.43
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Cukaricki) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cukaricki
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.71
0.50
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.17
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.67
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnicki NIS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
Over 2.5 cards
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 11.5 corners
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 3.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
Under 10.5 corners
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 3.5 cards
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
š° 10. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (31)
€60m
OB (36)
€29m
ŽP (36)
€24m
VOJ (27)
€23m
CUK (37)
€20m
INB (44)
€19m
NP (34)
€18m
RS (38)
€15m
RN (34)
€14m
R1 (32)
€13m
ML (33)
€8m
ZEM (22)
€5m
MAC (19)
€4m
Radnicki NIS's squad is €6m less valuable than Cukaricki's (€14m vs €20m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (12)
€26m
CUK (13)
€12m
OB (13)
€11m
ŽP (14)
€11m
VOJ (13)
€9m
RS (17)
€9m
INB (22)
€8m
NP (18)
€8m
R1 (12)
€7m
RN (17)
€7m
ML (13)
€5m
ZEM (9)
€2m
MAC (7)
€2m
Radnicki NIS's attack is €5m less valuable than Cukaricki's (€7m vs €12m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (4)
€19m
OB (8)
€8m
ŽP (9)
€6m
INB (4)
€5m
VOJ (4)
€5m
NP (4)
€3m
CUK (7)
€3m
R1 (6)
€2m
RS (7)
€2m
RN (5)
€1m
ZEM (5)
€1m
ML (6)
€1m
MAC (3)
€1m
Radnicki NIS's midfield is €1m less valuable than Cukaricki's (€1m vs €3m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (15)
€15m
OB (15)
€10m
VOJ (10)
€9m
NP (12)
€7m
ŽP (13)
€7m
RN (12)
€6m
INB (18)
€6m
CUK (17)
€5m
RS (14)
€4m
R1 (14)
€4m
ML (14)
€2m
MAC (9)
€2m
ZEM (8)
€1m
Radnicki NIS and Cukaricki have a similar defence value (both €6m).
Serbia: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Super Liga stats & trends →