Defensive solidity will shape the forecast, as both sides have shown modest scoring and conceding figures. Radnik Bijeljina, at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.17 goals for and 1.5 against, while Borac Banja Luka, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.36 for and 0.91 against. The model favours an away win with a 38% chance, followed closely by a draw at 32% and a home win at 30%. The expected total of 2.2 goals points to a low-scoring affair, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.7% probability. The suggested pick is Under 3.5, with an 81.8% chance of hitting. Both teams have recently drawn their last matches, hinting at a cautious approach.
Results analysis
The match saw the away side continue their recent form streak, with Borac Banja Luka coming off a draw to secure a 0-1 victory over Radnik Bijeljina. The model had correctly predicted the away win, assigning it a 38% probability, and the result matched the actual outcome. The single goal scored by the visitors confirmed the model’s pick. In addition, the model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals, with an 81.8% probability, hit as the final tally was just one goal. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 at 14.7% did not materialise, but the overall forecast was largely accurate, with the favoured result and the key selection both delivered.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Radnik Bijeljina win✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka win✓ Hit
37.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Radnik Bijeljina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.57
1.57
0.86
1.00
2.19
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
2.25
1.17
1.50
1.17
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.35
1.18
1.88
0.38
0.89
1.89
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Banja Luka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borac Banja Luka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.83
2.57
0.86
1.25
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.44
1.11
2.00
1.75
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (21)
2.05
0.71
2.80
0.50
1.36
0.91
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.1%
Under 1.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.9%
Under 2.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.2%
Under 3.5
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.8%
No
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.3%
0-1 ✓
11.6%
1-0
10.0%
1-2
7.9%
0-2
7.6%
2-1
6.9%
2-0
5.8%
Radnik Bijeljina goals ↓
Borac Banja Luka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
12%
7.6%
3.0%
0.9%
1
10.0%
15%
7.9%
3.1%
0.9%
2
5.8%
6.9%
4.0%
1.6%
0.5%
3
2.0%
2.4%
1.4%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Radnik Bijeljina goals (down), columns = Borac Banja Luka goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Posušje
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.83
Radnik Bijeljina is 1.42 points worse than Borac Banja Luka in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 2.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.86
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Posušje
0.69
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Radnik Bijeljina is 1.36 goals worse than Borac Banja Luka in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 2.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Posušje
1.14
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Rudar Prijedor
1.53
Radnik Bijeljina is 0.69 goals worse than Borac Banja Luka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 0.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Radnik Bijeljina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.79
0.29
0.50
1.25
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.08
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.65
0.88
0.12
0.44
1.11
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Banja Luka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borac Banja Luka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.40
1.21
0.64
0.69
0.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.78
1.00
1.25
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (21)
1.00
0.24
1.30
0.40
0.73
0.09
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Radnik Bijeljina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.79
0.57
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.17
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.53
1.00
0.25
0.44
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Banja Luka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borac Banja Luka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.43
1.36
0.21
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
0.48
1.50
0.10
0.64
0.82
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Borac Banja Luka · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
David Vuković25%
Dino Skorup20%
Đorđe Despotović20%
Sandi Ogrinec20%
Stefan Savić10%
Srđan Grahovac0%
Boban Nikolov0%
Zoran Kvržić0%
Filip Manojlović0%
Marko Vukčević0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Bart Meijers0%
Nikola Srećković0%
Stojan Vranješ0%
Sebastian Herrera0%
David Čavić0%
Viktor Rogan0%
Damir Hrelja0%
Enver Kulašin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Enver Kulašin56%
Marko Vukčević40%
Sebastian Herrera33%
Bart Meijers30%
Zoran Kvržić25%
David Vuković25%
Boban Nikolov22%
Dino Skorup20%
Đorđe Despotović20%
Nikola Srećković17%
David Čavić12%
Filip Manojlović11%
Jurich Carolina10%
Sandi Ogrinec10%
Srđan Grahovac0%
Stojan Vranješ0%
Stefan Savić0%
Viktor Rogan0%
Damir Hrelja0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Vuković25%
Zoran Kvržić12%
Sebastian Herrera11%
Stefan Savić10%
Srđan Grahovac0%
Boban Nikolov0%
Dino Skorup0%
Filip Manojlović0%
Marko Vukčević0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Bart Meijers0%
Nikola Srećković0%
Đorđe Despotović0%
Stojan Vranješ0%
Sandi Ogrinec0%
David Čavić0%
Viktor Rogan0%
Damir Hrelja0%
Enver Kulašin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Đorđe Despotović30%
Sebastian Herrera11%
Srđan Grahovac0%
Boban Nikolov0%
Zoran Kvržić0%
Dino Skorup0%
Filip Manojlović0%
Marko Vukčević0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Bart Meijers0%
Nikola Srećković0%
Stojan Vranješ0%
Stefan Savić0%
Sandi Ogrinec0%
David Čavić0%
Viktor Rogan0%
Damir Hrelja0%
David Vuković0%
Enver Kulašin0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
Radnik Bijeljina's squad is €5m less valuable than Borac Banja Luka's (€4m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
SB (5)
€1m
Radnik Bijeljina's attack is €2m less valuable than Borac Banja Luka's (€2m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Radnik Bijeljina and Borac Banja Luka have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
Radnik Bijeljina's defence is €2m less valuable than Borac Banja Luka's (€1m vs €4m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →