Defensive solidity will shape the early stages of the match, as Radnik Bijeljina’s home form shows a low average of 0.5 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against stronger opposition. In contrast, Borac Banja Luka, playing away, has averaged 1.83 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded against weaker sides, suggesting a sharper attack. The model favours an away win, with a 51% probability, followed by a 33% chance of a draw and 17% for a home victory. The expected total goals hover at 1.8, pointing to a tight, low-scoring affair. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 18.6% chance. The suggested selections are Under 3.5 goals at 88.6% and Under 2.5 goals at 72.2%. Radnik’s recent form, after two straight defeats, and Borac’s two-game winning streak add narrative weight to the prediction. The match is set to be a defensive standoff, with the model’s favourite outcome being an away win.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Radnik Bijeljina’s home form, a run of two straight defeats, failed to lift the team, while Borac Banja Luka, riding a two-game winning streak, could not secure the victory. The final score was 0-0, a draw that left the pre-match favourite - the model’s pick of an away win at 51 % probability - wrong. The model’s other selections proved accurate: Under 3.5 goals hit with an 88.6 % probability, and Under 2.5 goals also hit at 72.2 %. The match ended in a stalemate, with the predicted 2-goal total missed and the model’s expectation of an away win proved incorrect.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Radnik Bijeljina win✗ Miss
16.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka win✗ Miss
50.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Radnik Bijeljina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.10
1.20
0.93
0.47
1.27
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.50
0.50
1.33
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (20)
1.05
0.90
1.67
0.67
0.55
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Banja Luka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borac Banja Luka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.63
2.36
0.64
1.56
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.14
0.71
1.67
0.33
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
2.17
0.61
2.55
0.73
1.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
55.8%
Under 1.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
27.8%
Under 2.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
11.4%
Under 3.5
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
33.1%
No
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
18.6%
0-0 ✓
17.2%
1-1
13.0%
0-2
12.2%
1-0
8.4%
1-2
7.3%
0-3
5.0%
2-1
3.5%
Radnik Bijeljina goals ↓
Borac Banja Luka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
19%
12%
5.0%
1.5%
1
8.4%
13%
7.3%
3.0%
0.9%
2
2.9%
3.5%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
3
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Radnik Bijeljina goals (down), columns = Borac Banja Luka goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Posušje
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.83
Radnik Bijeljina is 1.42 points worse than Borac Banja Luka in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 2.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.86
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Posušje
0.69
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Radnik Bijeljina is 1.36 goals worse than Borac Banja Luka in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 2.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Posušje
1.14
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Rudar Prijedor
1.53
Radnik Bijeljina is 0.69 goals worse than Borac Banja Luka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 0.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Radnik Bijeljina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.60
0.40
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.40
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.50
0.78
0.44
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Banja Luka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borac Banja Luka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.27
1.14
0.43
0.88
0.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (23)
1.22
0.26
1.45
0.55
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Radnik Bijeljina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.60
0.53
0.13
0.73
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
1.10
0.17
1.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.40
0.89
0.22
0.09
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Banja Luka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borac Banja Luka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.37
1.21
0.21
0.69
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.43
1.67
0.33
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (23)
0.96
0.35
1.09
0.18
0.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (56)
€11m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (25)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
ZS (7)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
BBL (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (23)
€5m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
ZS (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 14. Games History
H2H record
6 previous meetings
1
RB wins
0
Draws
5
BBL wins
Head-to-head
Radnik Bijeljina vs Borac Banja Luka · H/A from RB
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →