Radnik Bijeljina’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding only 0.33 goals per game against similar opposition, while Velež struggles to keep the ball, conceding a full goal on average away. The model favours a home win, with a 39% chance, followed by a 32% draw and a 29% away win. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14.7%. The match is projected to be tight and low-scoring, with Radnik’s 1.5 goals per game at home versus Velež’s 1.0 away. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 5.5 (97.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 4.5 (93.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.1%) and Home +2 handicap (88.6%). Radnik’s recent form shows a 2-game losing streak, while Velež has just suffered a 0-3 defeat, underscoring the defensive focus of this encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Radnik Bijeljina win
43.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Velež win
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Radnik Bijeljina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.17
1.13
1.07
0.47
1.27
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.43
1.00
1.38
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.94
1.29
0.71
0.67
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.03
1.67
0.73
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
1.45
1.40
1.20
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (18)
1.44
0.72
1.80
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.1%
Under 1.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.3%
Under 2.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.0%
Under 3.5
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.9%
No
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
12.1%
0-0
11.4%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.4%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
4.7%
Radnik Bijeljina goals ↓
Velež goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.4%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.2%
2.0%
0.5%
2
8.9%
8.6%
4.2%
1.3%
0.3%
3
3.9%
3.8%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Radnik Bijeljina goals (down), columns = Velež goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina is 0.44 points worse than Velež in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Radnik Bijeljina is 0.25 goals worse than Velež in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Radnik Bijeljina is 0.28 goals worse than Velež in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Radnik Bijeljina or Draw
74.1%
Avg Implied -
44%
30%
26%
covers Radnik Bijeljina + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina or Velež
69.6%
Avg Implied -
44%
30%
26%
covers Radnik Bijeljina + Velež
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Velež
56.2%
Avg Implied -
44%
30%
26%
covers Draw + Velež
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5
Over
73.6%
Under
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5
Over
38.4%
Under
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5
Over
61.9%
Under
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5
Over
25.2%
Under
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Radnik Bijeljina, so a minus line means Radnik Bijeljina give that many goals of a start and Velež receive them. At -1, Radnik Bijeljina must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Radnik Bijeljina win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Radnik Bijeljina)
Radnik Bijeljina -2
7.6%
Draw -2
13.4%
Velež +2
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Radnik Bijeljina)
Radnik Bijeljina -1
21.0%
Draw -1
22.7%
Velež +1
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Radnik Bijeljina)
Radnik Bijeljina +1
74.1%
Draw +1
16.2%
Velež -1
9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Radnik Bijeljina)
Radnik Bijeljina +2
90.3%
Draw +2
7.1%
Velež -2
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Radnik Bijeljina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.50
0.60
0.47
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.50
0.43
0.43
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.87
0.40
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.91
0.60
0.60
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.39
1.00
0.30
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Radnik Bijeljina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.53
0.60
0.20
0.73
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
0.93
0.25
0.88
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.44
0.86
0.29
0.22
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.80
0.33
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.55
0.80
0.60
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.33
0.80
0.20
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
Radnik Bijeljina and Velež have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
Radnik Bijeljina and Velež have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Radnik Bijeljina and Velež have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
Radnik Bijeljina and Velež have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
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Zrinjski
Borac Banja Luka
Siroki Brijeg
FK Sarajevo
Sloga Doboj
Čelik
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
BSK Banja Luka