Zrinjski's recent unbeaten streak is a notable storyline heading into this match against Radnik Bijeljina. However, the away side's defensive record away from home is impressive, conceding just 0.67 goals per match against weaker opponents.
The model predicts a low-scoring match, with an expected total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a probability of 14.8%. The model's selection is the Under 3.5 goals, with a high probability of 85.7%.
Radnik Bijeljina's home form is concerning, with an average of 0.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per match against stronger opponents. Zrinjski's away form is strong, with 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per match against weaker opponents.
The model favours an away win, with a probability of 43.0%. The home win percentage is 24.0%, while the draw percentage is 33.0%. The away win percentage is 43.0%. The model's selection is the Away win, with a probability of 43.0%.
Results analysis
The win extends Radnik Bijeljina's recent woes, following a 2-game losing streak, while Zrinjski's form has been on the upswing, with a 2-game winning run. The final score of 1-5 was a far cry from the expected total of 2 goals, with the actual total a whopping 6 goals. The model's selection, Zrinjski's away win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 45%. The model's selection was the favourite, with the model correctly backing Zrinjski to win. The model's other selection, Under 3.5, with a probability of 85.7%, missed, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 28%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Radnik Bijeljina win✗ Miss
22.7%
Avg Implied 20.5% · @ 4.38
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.60
Pinnacle
4.59
1xBet
4.54
William Hil
4.50
888Sport
4.50
Draw✗ Miss
32.4%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.04
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.16
1xBet
3.12
Marathonbet
3.12
10Bet
3.10
Dafabet
3.10
Zrinjski win✓ Hit
44.9%
Avg Implied 50.0% · @ 1.80
Edge
-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.87
Dafabet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
888Sport
1.80
Bet365
1.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Radnik Bijeljina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.00
1.00
0.79
0.44
1.19
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.15
0.71
0.86
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.94
1.29
0.71
0.56
1.11
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zrinjski
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.83
1.69
0.62
1.14
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.40
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (23)
1.65
0.65
1.85
0.54
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
60.7%
@ 1.47-1.3%
Under 1.5
39.3%
@ 2.40+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Under
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.50
10Bet
2.45
888Sport
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
32.4%
@ 2.45-4.7%
Under 2.5
67.6%
@ 1.44+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.60
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.50
888Sport
2.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.48
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
14.3%
@ 4.56-5.6%
Under 3.5
85.7%
@ 1.14+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
5.00
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betfair
1.17
Betano
1.16
888Sport
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.12
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
39.6%
@ 2.17-2.2%
No
60.4%
@ 1.56+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.30
Unibet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
10Bet
2.20
No
888Sport
1.62
William Hil
1.62
1xBet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
15.1%@ 4.69+6.1%
0-0
14.8%@ 5.86+7.6%
1-1
14.2%@ 6.00+7.2%
0-2
10.0%@ 6.62+3.6%
1-0
9.3%@ 8.57+4.4%
1-2
7.8%@ 8.17+2.7%
2-1
5.1%@ 14.43+2.2%
2-0
4.2%@ 20.43+2.1%
Radnik Bijeljina goals ↓
Zrinjski goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
15%
10.0%
4.0%
1.2%
1
9.3%
14%
7.8%
3.2%
1.0%
2
4.2%
5.1%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
3
1.1%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Radnik Bijeljina goals (down), columns = Zrinjski goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina is 1.00 points worse than Zrinjski in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Radnik Bijeljina is 0.58 goals worse than Zrinjski in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Radnik Bijeljina is 0.56 goals worse than Zrinjski in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 0.69).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Radnik Bijeljina or Draw✗ Miss
55.1%
Avg Implied 49.3% · @ 1.86
Edge
+5.8%
23%
32%
45%
covers Radnik Bijeljina + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.91
William Hil
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Betano
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Radnik Bijeljina or Zrinjski✓ Hit
67.6%
Avg Implied 72.0% · @ 1.27
Edge
-4.5%
23%
32%
45%
covers Radnik Bijeljina + Zrinjski
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.35
888Sport
1.33
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Zrinjski✓ Hit
77.3%
Avg Implied 78.7% · @ 1.16
Edge
-1.3%
23%
32%
45%
covers Draw + Zrinjski
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
888Sport
1.18
William Hil
1.18
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Radnik Bijeljina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.43
0.50
0.36
0.31
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
0.38
0.57
0.29
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.50
0.43
0.43
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zrinjski
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.37
0.75
0.31
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.60
0.00
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (23)
0.87
0.26
0.92
0.23
0.80
0.30
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Radnik Bijeljina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.57
0.50
0.43
0.12
0.69
vs Stronger (13)
0.15
0.77
0.14
0.57
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.44
0.86
0.29
0.11
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Zrinjski) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zrinjski
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.94
0.31
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
0.78
0.39
0.92
0.31
0.60
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zrinjski over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
85.7%
1.14
Betfair
1.17
Betano
1.16
888Sport
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.12
+5.6%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
77.3%
1.16
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
888Sport
1.18
William Hil
1.18
-1.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Zrinjski · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nemanja Bilbija40%
Slobodan Jakovljević33%
Vitalie Damașcan25%
Karlo Abramović20%
Mario Ćuže17%
Leo Mikić12%
Duje Dujmović12%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Kerim Memija0%
Petar Mamić0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Neven Đurasek0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Marko Vranjković0%
Tyler Burey0%
Goran Karačić0%
Ilija Mašić0%
Igor Savić0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Matej Šakota0%
Borna Filipović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Neven Đurasek57%
Vitalie Damașcan50%
Karlo Abramović40%
Kerim Memija33%
Ilija Mašić25%
Duje Dujmović25%
Nemanja Bilbija20%
Marko Vranjković20%
Igor Savić14%
Matej Šakota14%
Leo Mikić12%
Mario Ćuže0%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Petar Mamić0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Tyler Burey0%
Goran Karačić0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Borna Filipović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marko Vranjković20%
Neven Đurasek14%
Matej Šakota14%
Leo Mikić12%
Mario Ćuže0%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Nemanja Bilbija0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Kerim Memija0%
Petar Mamić0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Tyler Burey0%
Vitalie Damașcan0%
Goran Karačić0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Karlo Abramović0%
Ilija Mašić0%
Igor Savić0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Borna Filipović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nemanja Bilbija40%
Mario Ćuže33%
Petar Mamić14%
Stefano Surdanović0%
Hrvoje Barišić0%
Kerim Memija0%
Marijan Ćavar0%
Neven Đurasek0%
Antonio Ivančić0%
Marko Vranjković0%
Tyler Burey0%
Vitalie Damașcan0%
Goran Karačić0%
Slobodan Jakovljević0%
Leo Mikić0%
Karlo Abramović0%
Ilija Mašić0%
Igor Savić0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Matej Šakota0%
Borna Filipović0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
Radnik Bijeljina's squad is €4m less valuable than Zrinjski's (€4m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
Radnik Bijeljina's attack is €2m less valuable than Zrinjski's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Radnik Bijeljina's midfield is €1m less valuable than Zrinjski's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
Radnik Bijeljina's defence is €1m less valuable than Zrinjski's (€1m vs €3m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →