PythiaFootballBETA
Radnik Surdulica is the clear favourite to win against Macva, with a 73% chance of victory at home. The model's prediction is a home win, likely due to Macva's struggles on the road, where they average just 0.67 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per match against similar opponents. In contrast, Radnik Surdulica has a strong home record, scoring 1.38 goals and conceding 0.62 per match against similar opponents.
The expected total goals for this match is 2.1, with a most likely score of 1-0 for Radnik Surdulica, occurring 20.7% of the time. Macva's away form has been poor, with four straight defeats, and they may struggle to contain Radnik Surdulica's attack.
The model suggests several selections, including Over 21.5 fouls (86.2%), Under 3.5 cards (83.5%), Over 3.5 cards (78.6%), BTTS No (75.8%), Home win (72.9%), and Radnik Surdulica clean sheet (71.8%). The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 73%, 22%, and 5%, respectively.
Radnik Surdulica's 2-1 win extends their run of consecutive victories. The actual result confirmed the model's call, which had correctly identified the home team as the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 73%. The model's selection, Home win, was correct. The suggested picks also performed well, with Under 3.5 goals hitting at 83.5% and the same probability for Home win. Radnik Surdulica clean sheet, however, missed at 71.7%. The most likely total goals was 2, but the actual score was 2-1, not among the top three most likely scores.
Radnik Surdulica| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.23 | 1.36 | 1.07 | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 1.00 | 1.46 | 1.33 | 1.67 | 0.71 | 1.29 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.29 | 1.06 | 1.38 | 0.62 | 1.22 | 1.44 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
Macva| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 0.97 | 1.67 | 0.73 | 0.53 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 3.33 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 3.50 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.12 | 0.72 | 1.69 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.00 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
| Macva goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 13% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 21% | 7.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 19% | 6.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 11% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Radnik SurdulicaMacvaRadnik Surdulica| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.8 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 30.4 | 30.3 | 30.6 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 9.5 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 29.5 | 30.7 | 28.6 |
| vs Similar (34) | 8.4 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 31.1 | 30.0 | 32.2 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 42% | 37% | 48% | 66% | 72% | 60% | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| % under line | 58% | 63% | 52% | 34% | 28% | 40% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
Macva| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.8 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 29.0 | 33.5 | 24.5 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 8.0 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 26.7 | 31.0 | 24.5 |
| vs Similar (45) | 7.0 | 7.0 | - | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 36.0 | 36.0 | - |
| vs Weaker (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 75% | 100% | 50% |
| % under line | 100% | 100% | 100% | 96% | 96% | 96% | 25% | 0% | 50% |
Radnik Surdulica| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.64 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.54 | 0.69 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.25 | 0.38 | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+34pp vs league) | |||||
Macva| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.43 | 0.87 | 0.27 | 0.33 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.00 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.68 | 0.32 | 0.92 | 0.23 | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+34pp vs league) | |||||
Radnik Surdulica| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.86 | 0.43 | 0.50 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.46 | 0.77 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.82 | 0.59 | 1.12 | 0.25 | 0.56 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Macva| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.53 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.44 | 0.40 | 0.77 | 0.38 | 0.08 | 0.42 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+34pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 94.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ā Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 88.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ā Miss |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 88.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ā Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 84.4% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +0.9% | ā Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 83.5% | 1.30 | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.31 | +13.4% | ā Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 78.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ā Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 75.7% | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.21 | - | - | - | +1.0% | ā Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 75.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ā Miss |
| Home win | 72.8% | 1.51 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.53 | 1.53 | +13.0% | ā Hit |
| Radnik Surdulica clean sheet | 71.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ā Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/25 | H | 4-0 | |
| 08/12/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 25/08/24 | A | 1-0 |
Radnik Surdulica| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 25/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 19/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-2 |
Macva| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 26/07/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 17/07/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 2-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value ā¬m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 16 | 1 | +15 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 60% | 7.8 | 0% | 4.0 | 60% | 20.4 | 40% | 115 | 62 | 21 | 33 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 61% |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 3.0 | 86% | 57% | 43% | 10.0 | 43% | 5.1 | 71% | 27.4 | 86% | 30 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 3 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 7 | 13 | 57% | 1.9 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.0 | 57% | 43% | 14% | 8.9 | 43% | 4.0 | 43% | 31.7 | 86% | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 53% |
| 4 |  Mladost Lucani | 7 | 10 | 29% | 1.4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 1.9 | 57% | 29% | 29% | 8.3 | 29% | 4.0 | 43% | 28.3 | 100% | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 38% |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.2 | 67% | 50% | 0% | 11.5 | 83% | 6.2 | 100% | 29.2 | 100% | 9 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 58% |
| 6 |  Cukaricki | 7 | 10 | 43% | 1.4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 3.0 | 86% | 57% | 43% | 9.9 | 57% | 5.0 | 86% | 26.1 | 71% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 41% |
| 7 |  ŽelezniÄar PanÄevo | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 7.6 | 20% | 6.2 | 100% | 30.4 | 100% | 13 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 61% |
| 8 | Radnik Surdulica | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 17% | 9.2 | 50% | 4.7 | 50% | 31.7 | 100% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 9 |  Novi Pazar | 7 | 8 | 29% | 1.1 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1.9 | 57% | 14% | 14% | 10.4 | 57% | 4.9 | 86% | 24.3 | 86% | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 49% |
| 10 |  OFK Beograd | 7 | 8 | 29% | 1.1 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 2.9 | 71% | 57% | 57% | 6.9 | 14% | 5.1 | 71% | 29.3 | 100% | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 54% |
| 11 |  FK Partizan | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 3.3 | 83% | 83% | 67% | 8.0 | 33% | 5.5 | 67% | 27.5 | 100% | 48 | 24 | 11 | 14 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 63% |
| 12 | Macva | 7 | 7 | 29% | 1.0 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 8.1 | 29% | 5.9 | 57% | 28.9 | 71% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 38% |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 6 | 5 | 17% | 0.8 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1.5 | 50% | 17% | 0% | 8.7 | 50% | 5.7 | 83% | 29.2 | 83% | 11 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 55% |
| 14 |  Zemun | 7 | 1 | 0% | 0.1 | 2 | 14 | -12 | 2.3 | 57% | 43% | 29% | 8.6 | 43% | 5.9 | 86% | 26.1 | 86% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 37% |