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Radnik Surdulica vs Mladost Lucani Result & Analysis

Date: 19/07/2026
Time: 17:00
Final 1-1
Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
Vs
52%
27%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani
Serbia: Super Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Radnik Surdulica a 52% win probability against Mladost Lucani in the Serbia: Super Liga on 2026-07-19, with 27% for the draw and 21% for Mladost Lucani. The model estimates around 2.5 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.1%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 21.5 fouls (86%), Under 3.5 (75%), Over 1.5 (73%), Over 3.5 cards (72%).

Results analysis

Radnik Surdulica finished 1-1 against Mladost Lucani (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 52% home win, 27% draw and 21% away win. Picks that landed: Over 21.5 fouls (86%), Under 3.5 (75%), Over 1.5 (73%). Missed: Over 3.5 cards (72%).

šŸŽÆ 1. Model Analysis

Radnik Surdulica wināœ— Miss
51.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawāœ“ Hit
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mladost Lucani wināœ— Miss
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

āš½ 2. Goal Analysis

Radnik SurdulicaRadnik Surdulica

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W12L00D22D20W11D14L11D00D05LA·FK 20/03H·FK 05/04A·OFK09/04A·CUK18/04H·NOV22/04A·OFK26/04H·VOJ04/05A·Å½EL09/05H·FK 17/05A·FK 23/05
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.271.471.131.201.40
vs Stronger (17)1.061.291.431.430.801.20
vs Similar (13)1.691.231.500.882.001.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost Lucani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Mladost LucaniMladost Lucani

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D11D20W11D00D21W21W01L42W10WH·FK 21/03A·RAD04/04H·NAP08/04A·IMT19/04H·RAD23/04A·TSC27/04H·FK 03/05A·RAD10/05A·JAV16/05H·NAP24/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.401.000.930.811.81
vs Stronger (16)0.752.060.831.330.702.50
vs Similar (14)1.070.641.120.621.000.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Surdulica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%222%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.1%
Under 1.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.4%
Under 2.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.9%
Under 3.5
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 āœ“
13.1%
1-0
11.5%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.1%
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.4%
Radnik Surdulica goals ↓
Mladost Lucani goals →
01234
09.1%6.2%3.5%1.1%0.3%
112%13%5.5%1.7%0.4%
210%9.5%4.4%1.4%0.3%
35.4%5.0%2.4%0.7%0.2%
42.2%2.0%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Radnik Surdulica goals (down), columns = Mladost Lucani goals (across).

šŸ’Ŗ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

šŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
2.32
Vojvodina
2.05
FK Partizan
1.97
Železničar Pančevo
1.59
Novi Pazar
1.41
IMT Novi Beograd
1.35
OFK Beograd
1.32
Radnicki NIS
1.32
Radnik Surdulica
1.24
Mladost Lucani
1.24
Radnicki 1923
1.22
Cukaricki
1.22
Zemun
1.15
Macva
1.14
Radnik Surdulica and Mladost Lucani are level in average points per game (both 1.24).

āš”ļø Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
2.70
FK Partizan
1.95
Vojvodina
1.78
Železničar Pančevo
1.35
OFK Beograd
1.32
Cukaricki
1.27
Novi Pazar
1.24
Radnicki NIS
1.24
Radnik Surdulica
1.19
Zemun
1.13
Macva
1.12
Radnicki 1923
1.11
IMT Novi Beograd
1.11
Mladost Lucani
0.89
Radnik Surdulica is 0.30 goals better than Mladost Lucani in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 0.89).

šŸ›”ļø Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.84
Vojvodina
0.95
Železničar Pančevo
1.00
Radnicki 1923
1.14
FK Partizan
1.22
OFK Beograd
1.27
Radnik Surdulica
1.30
Radnicki NIS
1.32
Cukaricki
1.35
IMT Novi Beograd
1.38
Mladost Lucani
1.41
Novi Pazar
1.46
Zemun
1.57
Macva
1.58
Radnik Surdulica is 0.11 goals better than Mladost Lucani in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 1.41).

ā±ļø Possession

Avg possession %
FK Crvena Zvezda
67%
FK Partizan
59%
Železničar Pančevo
54%
Radnicki 1923
52%
OFK Beograd
51%
Vojvodina
50%
Radnicki NIS
50%
IMT Novi Beograd
48%
Cukaricki
46%
Radnik Surdulica
46%
Novi Pazar
45%
Mladost Lucani
41%
Radnik Surdulica is 5.4 percentage points better than Mladost Lucani in terms of average possession (46% vs 41%).

šŸŽ² 4. Props Analysis

Radnik SurdulicaRadnik Surdulica

For 4.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.5

šŸš© Corners

120151467354716537575365610981110128A·FK H·FK A·Å½ELH·VOJA·OFKH·NOVA·CUKA·OFKH·FK A·FK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.9

šŸŸØ Cards

8024171325223322113322585755345A·FK H·FK A·Å½ELH·VOJA·OFKH·NOVA·CUKA·OFKH·FK A·FK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 13.5 · Total 28.6

āš ļø Fouls

3601091814207111719131015171917121416151319322728322536293028A·FK H·FK A·Å½ELH·VOJA·OFKH·NOVA·CUKA·OFKH·FK A·FK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Mladost LucaniMladost Lucani

For 3.8 · Against 5.8 · Total 9.6

šŸš© Corners

120444717331115443574775811861297121112H·NAPA·JAVA·RADH·FK A·TSCH·RADA·IMTH·NAPA·RADH·FK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.4

šŸŸØ Cards

80221331152235113111514446482426A·JAVA·RADH·FK A·TSCH·RADA·IMTH·NAPA·RADH·FK A·Å½EL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.8 · Total 22.7

āš ļø Fouls

2909731312171011131617111215151013751116162921292827252016H·NAPA·JAVA·RADH·FK A·TSCH·RADA·IMTH·NAPA·RADH·FK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Radnik SurdulicaRadnik Surdulica

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.88.68.94.14.04.230.430.530.2
vs Stronger (22)9.19.78.64.94.75.029.630.129.2
vs Similar (28)8.37.19.63.53.53.431.531.032.0
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line41%39%42%64%72%56%95%94%95%
% under line59%61%58%36%28%44%5%6%5%
This opponent (Mladost Lucani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Mladost LucaniMladost Lucani

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.69.89.33.83.54.125.626.424.9
vs Stronger (30)10.010.89.23.43.23.624.525.323.9
vs Similar (20)8.98.49.54.33.84.827.227.926.5
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line47%48%46%60%54%65%76%74%77%
% under line53%52%54%40%46%35%24%26%23%
This opponent (Radnik Surdulica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

šŸš© Total Corners

Match total corners / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
10.3
Mladost Lucani
9.6
Vojvodina
9.2
OFK Beograd
9.1
Macva
9.0
Novi Pazar
8.9
FK Partizan
8.9
Radnik Surdulica
8.8
Radnicki 1923
8.8
IMT Novi Beograd
8.7
Cukaricki
8.7
Železničar Pančevo
8.6
Radnicki NIS
8.5
Zemun
5.0

šŸŸØ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Zemun
6.0
Radnicki 1923
5.5
Radnik Surdulica
5.2
Vojvodina
5.0
Radnicki NIS
4.9
Cukaricki
4.9
OFK Beograd
4.7
FK Partizan
4.6
IMT Novi Beograd
4.5
Novi Pazar
4.4
Železničar Pančevo
4.4
Mladost Lucani
4.2
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.6
Macva
2.0

āš ļø Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Radnicki 1923
31.1
Radnik Surdulica
30.2
Cukaricki
29.6
Radnicki NIS
29.4
OFK Beograd
29.1
IMT Novi Beograd
29.1
Železničar Pančevo
27.8
Vojvodina
27.6
Novi Pazar
27.6
FK Partizan
26.5
Mladost Lucani
25.7
Zemun
25.0
FK Crvena Zvezda
24.0
Macva
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
37.6%
Under 9.5
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
72.5%
Under 3.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
85.6%
Under 21.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

šŸ”¢ 6. Odd / Even

šŸ„… 7. Home & Away Over/Under

āš–ļø 8. Handicap

šŸ”„ 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 21.5 fouls85.6%-------āœ“ Hit
Under 3.575.1%-------āœ“ Hit
Over 1.573.1%-------āœ“ Hit
Over 3.5 cards72.5%-------āœ— Miss

šŸ’° 10. Squad value

šŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (31)
€60m
OB (36)
€29m
ŽP (36)
€24m
VOJ (27)
€23m
CUK (37)
€20m
INB (44)
€19m
NP (34)
€18m
RS (38)
€15m
RN (34)
€14m
R1 (32)
€13m
ML (33)
€8m
ZEM (22)
€5m
MAC (19)
€4m
Radnik Surdulica's squad is €8m more valuable than Mladost Lucani's (€15m vs €8m).

āš”ļø Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (12)
€26m
CUK (13)
€12m
OB (13)
€11m
ŽP (14)
€11m
VOJ (13)
€9m
RS (17)
€9m
INB (22)
€8m
NP (18)
€8m
R1 (12)
€7m
RN (17)
€7m
ML (13)
€5m
ZEM (9)
€2m
MAC (7)
€2m
Radnik Surdulica's attack is €4m more valuable than Mladost Lucani's (€9m vs €5m).

šŸ§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (4)
€19m
OB (8)
€8m
ŽP (9)
€6m
INB (4)
€5m
VOJ (4)
€5m
NP (4)
€3m
CUK (7)
€3m
R1 (6)
€2m
RS (7)
€2m
RN (5)
€1m
ZEM (5)
€1m
ML (6)
€1m
MAC (3)
€1m
Radnik Surdulica and Mladost Lucani have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

šŸ›”ļø Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (15)
€15m
OB (15)
€10m
VOJ (10)
€9m
NP (12)
€7m
ŽP (13)
€7m
RN (12)
€6m
INB (18)
€6m
CUK (17)
€5m
RS (14)
€4m
R1 (14)
€4m
ML (14)
€2m
MAC (9)
€2m
ZEM (8)
€1m
Radnik Surdulica's defence is €3m more valuable than Mladost Lucani's (€4m vs €2m).

šŸ¤ 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Radnik Surdulica vs Mladost Lucani · H/A from RS
DateH/AGameScore
08/12/25HRS Vs Mladost Lucani0-0
02/08/25AMladost Lucani Vs RS1-0
25/11/23HRS Vs Mladost Lucani1-1
31/07/23AMladost Lucani Vs RS0-0
09/05/23AMladost Lucani Vs RS2-0
10/02/23HRS Vs Mladost Lucani1-0
14/08/22AMladost Lucani Vs RS3-2

Radnik SurdulicaRadnik Surdulica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/26AFK Partizan Vs RS5-0
17/05/26HRS Vs FK Crvena Zvezda0-0
09/05/26AŽelezničar Pančevo Vs RS1-1
04/05/26HRS Vs Vojvodina1-4
26/04/26AOFK Beograd Vs RS1-1
22/04/26HRS Vs Novi Pazar2-0
18/04/26ACukaricki Vs RS2-2
09/04/26AOFK Beograd Vs RS0-0
05/04/26HRS Vs FK Crvena Zvezda1-2
20/03/26AFK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV Vs RS1-3

Mladost LucaniMladost Lucani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/05/26HML Vs Napredak1-0
16/05/26AJavor Vs ML2-4
10/05/26ARadnicki NIS Vs ML1-0
03/05/26HML Vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV2-1
27/04/26ATSC Backa Topola Vs ML1-2
23/04/26HML Vs Radnicki 19230-0
19/04/26AIMT Novi Beograd Vs ML1-1
08/04/26HML Vs Napredak2-0
04/04/26ARadnicki 1923 Vs ML1-1
21/03/26HML Vs FK Partizan1-1

šŸ“Š 12. Overall Statistics

Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
Serbia: Super Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDDL1.54
HomeDLWLD2.00
AwayDDDDL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%60%24%
AVG goals2.622.602.64
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %48%52%44%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.461.721.20
Conceded1.160.881.44
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet38%52%24%
Corners8.768.568.95
Cards5.515.565.47
Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani
Serbia: Super Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW1.08
HomeDWDWW1.42
AwayDDWLW0.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%33%15%
AVG goals2.342.122.54
Over 1.5 %72%75%69%
Over 2.5 %40%33%46%
Over 3.5 %26%17%35%
Scored0.840.960.73
Conceded1.501.171.81
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet24%33%15%
Corners9.559.789.35
Cards4.203.774.61

šŸ† 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ā‚¬mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CukarickiCukaricki510
60%
2.0
93+6
2.4
80%
40%
20%
9.6
60%
5.6
100%
28.0
80%
20
12351.80.6
46%
2IMT Novi BeogradIMT Novi Beograd510
60%
2.0
72+5
1.8
40%
40%
20%
9.0
40%
4.0
40%
31.0
80%
19
8561.40.4
48%
3FK Crvena ZvezdaFK Crvena Zvezda39
100%
3.0
101+9
3.7
100%
67%
67%
8.3
0%
3.7
67%
20.3
33%
0
0003.30.3
67%
4VojvodinaVojvodina59
60%
1.8
96+3
3.0
100%
60%
40%
9.2
40%
4.8
60%
26.6
80%
23
9591.81.2
50%
5Mladost LucaniMladost Lucani57
20%
1.4
43+1
1.4
40%
20%
20%
10.2
40%
4.8
60%
28.2
100%
8
5120.80.6
41%
6Novi PazarNovi Pazar57
40%
1.4
46-2
2.0
60%
20%
20%
10.2
40%
4.6
80%
24.8
100%
18
8370.81.2
45%
7Radnicki 1923Radnicki 192346
50%
1.5
44+0
2.0
50%
50%
0%
12.5
100%
5.5
100%
25.2
100%
13
7241.01.0
52%
8Železničar PančevoŽelezničar Pančevo35
33%
1.7
43+1
2.3
67%
67%
33%
7.7
33%
5.7
100%
28.7
100%
24
11671.31.0
54%
9Radnik SurdulicaRadnik Surdulica45
25%
1.2
44+0
2.0
75%
50%
0%
9.0
50%
3.8
25%
32.8
100%
15
9241.01.0
46%
10OFK BeogradOFK Beograd55
20%
1.0
69-3
3.0
80%
60%
60%
7.6
20%
5.8
80%
30.2
100%
29
118101.21.8
51%
11FK PartizanFK Partizan44
25%
1.0
66+0
3.0
75%
75%
50%
9.5
50%
6.8
100%
28.5
100%
60
2619151.51.5
59%
12Radnicki NISRadnicki NIS44
25%
1.0
24-2
1.5
50%
25%
0%
9.0
50%
4.2
75%
27.0
75%
14
7160.51.0
50%
13MacvaMacva53
20%
0.6
312-9
3.0
80%
60%
40%
7.4
0%
5.6
40%
30.4
80%
4
2120.62.4
-
14ZemunZemun51
0%
0.2
211-9
2.6
60%
60%
40%
9.6
60%
6.2
80%
25.8
80%
5
2110.42.2
-
Serbia: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Super Liga stats & trends →

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