Radomlje vs Aluminij Result & Analysis

The encounter between Radomlje and Aluminij feels razor-thin, with the model favouring a home win but the odds still close. Radomlje’s home form shows they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded against similarly ranked opposition, while Aluminij, on the road, averages only 0.64 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. The expected total is 2.7 goals, with the most probable total being two goals at a 26% probability. The single score most likely to materialise is 1-1, carrying a 13.6% chance. The model’s pick is a home victory, with a 38% probability, compared to a 28% chance of a draw and 34% for an away win. Recent form hints at uncertainty: Radomlje come off a draw, and Aluminij after a defeat. Suggested selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 86.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.7%, Over 1.5 at 75.7% (hit), Under 5.5 cards at 75.6%, Over 21.5 fouls at 74.7%, and Under 3.5 at 72.2% (hit).

The upset came as Radomlje, the pre-match favourite with a 38% chance, failed to hold their ground and Aluminij seized the win, finishing 1-2. The model had tipped a home win, but the outcome proved wrong, confirming the pick was incorrect. The match still delivered on the model’s other selections: Over 1.5 goals hit with a 75.7% probability, and Under 3.5 goals also hit at 72.2%. Radomlje entered the game coming off a draw in their last five, while Aluminij were on a losing streak after a defeat. The final score of 1-2 matched the model’s most likely total of two goals, though the exact scoreline was not predicted.