Radomlje are favourites to win at home against Aluminij, especially after coming off a win against Mura. The home side's recent form suggests they're in good shape, with an average of 1 goal scored and 1.8 conceded at home against stronger opponents. Aluminij, on the other hand, have struggled on the road, scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding 2 against weaker opponents.
The model predicts a 45% chance of a home win, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 29% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, with the most likely score being 1-1 at 12.2%. Radomlje are also likely to score at least 2 goals, with a suggested pick of Over 1.5 at 81.1%.
The model's selection for the match result is a home win. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 at 81.1%, while Radomlje to win at home is 45%, a draw is 26%, and Aluminij to win away is 29%.
Results analysis
Radomlje's recent woes continued as they fell to a 1-3 defeat against Aluminij, extending their losing streak. The actual result was an away win, a surprise given Aluminij's recent form. The pre-match favourite, Radomlje, failed to come through, with the model's selection of a home win being incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as Aluminij won the match. The model's selection of a home win had a 45% chance of occurring. In contrast, the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals also came to fruition, hitting with an 81.1% probability.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Radomlje win✗ Miss
44.9%
Avg Implied 39.8% · @ 2.29
Edge
+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.48
Pinnacle
2.41
Dafabet
2.31
1xBet
2.31
888Sport
2.30
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.38
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.60
Dafabet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Aluminij win✓ Hit
29.0%
Avg Implied 33.3% · @ 2.73
Edge
-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.97
Dafabet
2.85
1xBet
2.82
Betano
2.82
SBO
2.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Radomlje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.70
1.29
1.86
1.62
1.56
vs Stronger (13)
1.15
2.08
0.86
2.00
1.50
2.17
vs Similar (17)
1.71
1.41
1.71
1.71
1.70
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.77
1.25
1.44
0.86
2.14
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
3.50
vs Similar (27)
1.07
1.67
1.20
1.47
0.92
1.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.1%
@ 1.20+4.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
@ 4.02-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
888Sport
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.41
BetVictor
4.20
Bet365
4.00
888Sport
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.6%
@ 1.66+1.7%
Under 2.5
42.4%
@ 2.11-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
SBO
1.68
Under
Pinnacle
2.20
Unibet
2.20
SBO
2.11
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.2%
@ 2.61-0.1%
Under 3.5
64.8%
@ 1.42+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
BetVictor
2.70
Betano
2.67
888Sport
2.63
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
Unibet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.6%
@ 1.55+1.3%
No
39.4%
@ 2.26-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
888Sport
1.60
William Hil
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
No
Unibet
2.35
1xBet
2.34
BetVictor
2.30
Marathonbet
2.30
Betfair
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%@ 6.29+5.1%
2-1
9.3%@ 8.29+3.9%
1-0
7.3%@ 8.81+2.3%
1-2
7.3%@ 9.32+2.5%
2-0
7.1%@ 11.41+3.2%
2-2
6.1%@ 11.06+2.1%
0-0
6.1%@ 11.47+2.3%
0-1
5.5%@ 9.87+1.0%
Radomlje goals ↓
Aluminij goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
5.5%
4.3%
1.9%
0.6%
1
7.3%
12%
7.3%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.1%
9.3%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
3
3.9%
5.2%
3.4%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.7%
2.2%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Radomlje goals (down), columns = Aluminij goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Radomlje is 0.31 points worse than Aluminij in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Radomlje is 0.02 goals better than Aluminij in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Radomlje is 0.52 goals worse than Aluminij in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Radomlje
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Aluminij
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Radomlje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (41)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.4
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.8
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Celje
24.9
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.90
10Bet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Radomlje or Draw✗ Miss
71.0%
Avg Implied -
45%
26%
29%
covers Radomlje + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Radomlje or Aluminij✓ Hit
73.9%
Avg Implied -
45%
26%
29%
covers Radomlje + Aluminij
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Aluminij✓ Hit
55.1%
Avg Implied -
45%
26%
29%
covers Draw + Aluminij
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Radomlje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.57
0.93
0.75
0.44
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.00
0.43
1.14
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.41
0.71
0.71
0.90
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.90
0.50
0.81
0.14
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.37
0.81
0.53
0.80
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Radomlje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Radomlje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.03
0.71
0.93
0.88
1.12
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
1.08
0.43
0.86
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.88
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.75
0.62
0.71
1.14
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.85
0.67
0.67
0.75
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Radomlje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.1%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
888Sport
1.20
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Radomlje's squad is €1m more valuable than Aluminij's (€5m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Radomlje and Aluminij have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Radomlje and Aluminij have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Radomlje and Aluminij have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Maribor
Koper
Celje
Bravo
Brinje-Grosuplje
Olimpija Ljubljana
Nafta
Mura