Radomlje vs Mura Result & Analysis

The contest between Radomlje and Mura is a fine-tuned affair, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win chances sit at 30% and 40% respectively, with a 30% draw probability. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly high-scoring match, and the most likely total of two goals carries a 27% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.2% probability. Radomlje, at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, while Mura, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and only 0.25 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 83.7%, Under 5.5 cards at 80.3%, Under 3.5 at 77.6% (hit), Over 8.5 corners at 77.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 74.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 71.0%, and Over 1.5 at 70.7% (hit).

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an Away win with a 40% chance, failed to materialise. The match ended 1-1, a draw that the model had not predicted. Radomlje, coming off a draw, and Mura, after two straight defeats, were evenly matched. The model’s selections for Under 3.5 goals (77.6%) and Over 1.5 goals (70.7%) both hit, confirming the expected total of 2 goals. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, but the predicted away victory proved incorrect.