Raith Rovers are favoured to win this Championship clash, with the model picking a home victory. The expected total is 2.7 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries an 11.8 % probability. Raith’s home form shows they average 2.21 goals scored and 1.21 conceded against similarly strong opponents, while Arbroath’s away record is 0.73 scored and 1.18 conceded. The home win probability stands at 59 %, the draw at 25 %, and the away win at 17 %. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8 %), Under 6.5 (97.9 %), Home +2 handicap (94.4 %), Under 5.5 (94.3 %), Away under 2.5 goals (94.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (88.8 %), and Under 4.5 (86.3 %). Raith’s recent five-match run of WWDWD, highlighted by a 2-0 win over Ayr Utd, and Arbroath’s five-match sequence of WDLWL, fresh from a 2-1 victory at Morton, set the tone for a tightly contested encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Raith Rovers win
55.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arbroath win
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Raith Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.00
2.20
1.00
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.39
1.00
2.29
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.03
1.06
0.81
0.64
1.29
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
1.67
1.25
2.00
0.80
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.45
0.56
1.22
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.1%
Under 1.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.1%
Under 2.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.2%
Under 3.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.2%
No
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-0
11.3%
2-0
10.7%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.3%
3-0
6.2%
3-1
5.6%
0-1
5.4%
Raith Rovers goals ↓
Arbroath goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
5.4%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
5.1%
1.5%
0.4%
2
11%
9.7%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
6.2%
5.6%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.7%
2.4%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raith Rovers goals (down), columns = Arbroath goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Raith Rovers is 0.23 points worse than Arbroath in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.48).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Arbroath
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Raith Rovers is 0.06 goals worse than Arbroath in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Raith Rovers is 0.02 goals worse than Arbroath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Raith Rovers
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Arbroath
For 4.6 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Raith Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.1
0.0
0.2
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
-
-
-
0.1
0.0
0.2
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.3
0.5
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
2%
0%
4%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
98%
100%
96%
-
-
-
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.7
7.9
7.4
1.0
1.2
0.9
24.2
22.7
26.2
vs Stronger (16)
7.0
6.7
7.3
1.5
1.6
1.4
24.8
21.3
28.3
vs Similar (33)
9.0
10.0
7.5
0.8
0.9
0.6
23.2
23.3
23.0
vs Weaker (1)
5.0
5.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
25.0
25.0
-
% over line
25%
29%
20%
18%
20%
16%
75%
57%
100%
% under line
75%
71%
80%
82%
80%
84%
25%
43%
0%
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.2%
Under 9.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
57.1%
Under 3.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
53.5%
Under 21.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Raith Rovers or Draw
81.5%
Avg Implied -
56%
26%
18%
covers Raith Rovers + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers or Arbroath
74.1%
Avg Implied -
56%
26%
18%
covers Raith Rovers + Arbroath
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Arbroath
44.4%
Avg Implied -
56%
26%
18%
covers Draw + Arbroath
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5
Over
82.2%
Under
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5
Over
51.5%
Under
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5
Over
25.0%
Under
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 3.5
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5
Over
59.7%
Under
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5
Over
23.1%
Under
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Raith Rovers, so a minus line means Raith Rovers give that many goals of a start and Arbroath receive them. At -1, Raith Rovers must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Raith Rovers win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Raith Rovers)
Raith Rovers -2
14.2%
Draw -2
17.5%
Arbroath +2
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Raith Rovers)
Raith Rovers -1
31.7%
Draw -1
23.9%
Arbroath +1
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Raith Rovers)
Raith Rovers +1
81.5%
Draw +1
12.0%
Arbroath -1
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Raith Rovers)
Raith Rovers +2
93.5%
Draw +2
4.8%
Arbroath -2
1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Raith Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.87
0.53
0.20
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.54
0.54
0.86
0.50
0.21
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.38
0.25
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.56
0.50
0.75
0.20
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.45
0.36
0.09
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.1%
Under 0.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.4%
Under 1.5
67.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.5%
Under 2.5
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.6%
Under
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.4%
Under
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.9%
Under
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Raith Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
1.33
0.47
0.27
0.40
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.46
1.43
0.50
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.69
0.56
0.29
0.57
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.11
0.75
1.25
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.35
0.64
0.36
0.11
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.0%
Under 0.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.2%
Under 1.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.0%
Under 2.5
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.2%
Under
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.8%
Under
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.6%
Under
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Raith Rovers's squad is €1m more valuable than Arbroath's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Raith Rovers and Arbroath have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Raith Rovers and Arbroath have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Raith Rovers and Arbroath have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →