Raith Rovers are tipped to lift the trophy at home, the model’s pick for a home win, with a 44% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 28% chance of a Dunfermline win. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6% probability. Raith’s home form shows an average of 2.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded against similarly-matched opposition, while Dunfermline’s away record yields 1.33 goals scored and 1.08 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 5.5 (95.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.5%), Home +2 handicap (88.6%) and Under 4.5 (87.7%). The recent form shows Raith coming off a defeat, while Dunfermline return from a win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Raith Rovers win
39.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline win
31.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Raith Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.00
2.20
1.00
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.39
1.00
2.29
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.80
1.88
0.50
1.21
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
3.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.50
0.77
1.64
0.50
1.33
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
4.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.5%
Under 1.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.1%
Under 2.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.4%
Under 3.5
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.9%
No
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
9.1%
0-0
8.7%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.2%
0-2
5.4%
Raith Rovers goals ↓
Dunfermline goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
7.7%
5.4%
2.2%
0.7%
1
9.1%
14%
7.5%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.2%
8.7%
5.2%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.3%
4.0%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raith Rovers goals (down), columns = Dunfermline goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Raith Rovers is 0.29 points worse than Dunfermline in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.54).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Raith Rovers is 0.24 goals worse than Dunfermline in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Raith Rovers is 0.15 goals worse than Dunfermline in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.02).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Raith Rovers
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dunfermline
For 4.8 · Against 3.5 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.6 · Against 10.6 · Total 18.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Raith Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.1
8.2
8.0
0.9
0.7
1.2
19.5
23.0
16.5
vs Stronger (3)
9.0
13.0
5.0
1.3
1.0
2.0
19.5
24.0
15.0
vs Similar (43)
7.9
7.0
8.6
1.0
0.7
1.3
19.4
22.8
16.8
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
27%
20%
33%
14%
8%
21%
45%
60%
33%
% under line
73%
80%
67%
86%
92%
79%
55%
40%
67%
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.9%
Under 9.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
65.3%
Under 3.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
43.0%
Under 21.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Raith Rovers or Draw
68.6%
Avg Implied -
40%
29%
31%
covers Raith Rovers + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers or Dunfermline
71.2%
Avg Implied -
40%
29%
31%
covers Raith Rovers + Dunfermline
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dunfermline
60.1%
Avg Implied -
40%
29%
31%
covers Draw + Dunfermline
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5
Over
75.1%
Under
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5
Over
40.5%
Under
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5
Over
16.4%
Under
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5
Over
70.1%
Under
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5
Over
34.0%
Under
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Raith Rovers, so a minus line means Raith Rovers give that many goals of a start and Dunfermline receive them. At -1, Raith Rovers must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Raith Rovers win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Raith Rovers)
Raith Rovers -2
7.1%
Draw -2
12.2%
Dunfermline +2
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Raith Rovers)
Raith Rovers -1
19.3%
Draw -1
20.6%
Dunfermline +1
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Raith Rovers)
Raith Rovers +1
68.6%
Draw +1
17.7%
Dunfermline -1
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Raith Rovers)
Raith Rovers +2
86.4%
Draw +2
9.2%
Dunfermline -2
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Raith Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.87
0.53
0.20
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.54
0.54
0.86
0.50
0.21
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.94
0.19
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.38
0.79
0.21
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Raith Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
1.33
0.47
0.27
0.40
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.46
1.43
0.50
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.40
0.94
0.31
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.85
0.38
0.86
0.29
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Raith Rovers's squad is €2m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Raith Rovers and Dunfermline have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Raith Rovers and Dunfermline have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Raith Rovers's defence is €2m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€0m vs €2m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
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Stenhousemuir
Partick
Arbroath
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Inverness CT
Morton
Queen's Park