Raith Rovers are set to defend a tight, low-scoring game, with the model projecting a 48% chance of a home win, 30% for a draw and 22% for Inverness CT to take the victory. The expected total goals sit at 2.2, and the most likely scoreline is a 1-0 win for Raith Rovers, a 13.9% probability. Raith’s home form shows they average one goal scored and one conceded against weaker opposition, while Inverness CT, playing away against a stronger side, also averages 1.09 goals for and against. The model’s picks underline the defensive nature of the fixture: Under 7.5 goals 99.8%, Under 6.599.3%, Away under 3.5 goals99.0%, Under 5.597.5%, Home under 3.5 goals95.0%, Away under 2.5 goals94.8%, Under 4.592.8%, and Home +2 handicap92.7%. Raith Rovers have just come off a 0-1 defeat to Dunfermline, while Inverness CT fell 1-3 to Stenhousemuir, both teams looking to rebound.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Raith Rovers win
45.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT win
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Raith Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.00
2.20
1.00
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.39
1.00
2.29
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.87
1.79
0.64
0.94
1.06
vs Stronger (24)
1.50
0.83
1.85
0.62
1.09
1.09
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
65.6%
Under 1.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
37.5%
Under 2.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
17.9%
Under 3.5
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.0%
No
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
13.4%
0-0
12.5%
2-0
9.7%
0-1
8.5%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
5.6%
0-2
4.3%
Raith Rovers goals ↓
Inverness CT goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.5%
4.3%
1.2%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.6%
1.6%
0.4%
2
9.7%
8.5%
3.7%
1.1%
0.2%
3
4.2%
3.7%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.4%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raith Rovers goals (down), columns = Inverness CT goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Raith Rovers is 0.26 points better than Inverness CT in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 0.99).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Raith Rovers is 0.32 goals better than Inverness CT in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 0.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Raith Rovers is 0.42 goals better than Inverness CT in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Raith Rovers
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Inverness CT
For 5.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Raith Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.8
8.2
2.3
2.0
2.7
21.6
20.8
22.4
vs Stronger (41)
9.1
10.0
8.1
2.3
2.0
2.7
21.3
20.4
22.1
vs Similar (4)
4.0
-
4.0
0.2
0.0
0.5
18.0
-
18.0
vs Weaker (5)
9.3
7.0
10.5
4.0
4.0
4.0
26.3
26.0
26.5
% over line
37%
41%
33%
30%
21%
38%
46%
41%
50%
% under line
63%
59%
67%
70%
79%
62%
54%
59%
50%
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.0%
Under 9.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.8%
Under 3.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
53.7%
Under 21.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Raith Rovers or Draw
76.5%
Avg Implied -
46%
31%
24%
covers Raith Rovers + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers or Inverness CT
69.2%
Avg Implied -
46%
31%
24%
covers Raith Rovers + Inverness CT
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Inverness CT
54.4%
Avg Implied -
46%
31%
24%
covers Draw + Inverness CT
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5
Over
73.2%
Under
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5
Over
37.9%
Under
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5
Over
58.3%
Under
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Raith Rovers, so a minus line means Raith Rovers give that many goals of a start and Inverness CT receive them. At -1, Raith Rovers must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Raith Rovers win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Raith Rovers)
Raith Rovers -2
7.9%
Draw -2
14.0%
Inverness CT +2
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Raith Rovers)
Raith Rovers -1
21.9%
Draw -1
23.7%
Inverness CT +1
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Raith Rovers)
Raith Rovers +1
76.5%
Draw +1
15.3%
Inverness CT -1
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Raith Rovers)
Raith Rovers +2
91.8%
Draw +2
6.2%
Inverness CT -2
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Raith Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.87
0.53
0.20
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.54
0.54
0.86
0.50
0.21
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.30
0.79
0.36
0.38
0.25
vs Stronger (24)
0.58
0.29
0.77
0.31
0.36
0.27
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Raith Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
1.33
0.47
0.27
0.40
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.46
1.43
0.50
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inverness CT
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
1.00
0.29
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (24)
0.92
0.54
1.08
0.31
0.73
0.82
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Raith Rovers's squad is €1m more valuable than Inverness CT's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Raith Rovers and Inverness CT have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Raith Rovers and Inverness CT have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Raith Rovers and Inverness CT have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stenhousemuir
Partick
Arbroath
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Dunfermline
Morton
Queen's Park