Raith Rovers vs Stenhousemuir Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026

Time: 14:00

Final 1-1

Raith Rovers

44%

26%

29%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Stenhousemuir

Scotland: Championship

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Top picks for this game 11 Squad value 12 Games History 13 Overall Statistics 14 League Table

Match preview & prediction

Raith Rovers host Stenhousemuir in a Scotland: Championship match. The visitors are coming off a 2-0 win over Morton, while Raith Rovers secured a 2-1 victory over Queen's Park in their last outing. This match is expected to be an open affair with 3.0 goals on average, though the most likely total is 2 goals. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a 12.3% probability.

Raith Rovers have been dominant at home, scoring 4.5 goals on average while conceding just 1.0. In contrast, Stenhousemuir have struggled away from home, scoring 1.19 goals on average and conceding 0.88. The model's selection is the home win, with a 44% probability, though the draw is a close second at 26%. The away win has a 29% chance of success.

The model's favoured match result is a home win. The model's selection is the home win, with a 44% probability, though the draw is a close second at 26%. The away win has a 29% chance of success. The model's selection for Over 1.5 goals has a 80.7% probability, with a 9% edge. The model's selection for Over 1.5 goals has a 80.7% probability, with a 9% edge.

Results analysis

Raith Rovers' recent form storyline came to an abrupt end with a 1-1 draw against Stenhousemuir, extending the away side's run of consecutive draws. The match defied expectations, as the pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialise. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 44%. The model's call was wrong. The model's selection, a home win, was the only selection. The model's selection, a home win, was not the model's selection. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 80.7%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Raith Rovers win✗ Miss

44.3%

Avg Implied 66.1% · @ 1.38

Edge

-21.8%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

1.43

William Hil

1.40

Unibet

1.40

1xBet

1.39

Betano

1.39

Draw✓ Hit

26.3%

Avg Implied 22.0% · @ 4.16

Edge

+4.3%

Best 5 market prices

Dafabet

4.50

Superbet

4.40

Pinnacle

4.25

Betfair

4.20

Betano

4.20

Stenhousemuir win✗ Miss

29.4%

Avg Implied 11.9% · @ 7.66

Edge

+17.5%

Best 5 market prices

10Bet

8.30

Pinnacle

8.24

Dafabet

8.20

BetVictor

8.00

1xBet

7.70

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Raith Rovers

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.1

Avg scored

1.5

Avg conceded

1.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.20	1.20	2.07	1.27	0.33	1.13
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (26)	1.04	1.15	1.69	1.31	0.38	1.00
vs Weaker (4)	2.25	1.50	4.50	1.00	0.00	2.00
Clean sheet %	40% (+11pp vs league)

This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stenhousemuir

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.3

Avg scored

1.4

Avg conceded

0.9

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.40	0.77	1.64	0.64	1.19	0.88
vs Stronger (28)	1.43	0.75	1.69	0.62	1.20	0.87
vs Similar (2)	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	47% (+17pp vs league)

This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

80.7%

@ 1.29+9.1%

Under 1.5

19.3%

@ 3.27-9.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.33

Bet365

1.33

Pinnacle

1.31

10Bet

1.30

Superbet

1.30

Under

Betfair

3.60

Pinnacle

3.45

BetVictor

3.30

10Bet

3.30

Bet365

3.25

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

57.0%

@ 1.94+8.9%

Under 2.5

43.0%

@ 1.79-8.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.05

Betano

2.00

Pinnacle

1.99

10Bet

1.93

BetVictor

1.92

Under

Pinnacle

1.85

Betfair

1.85

Betano

1.80

10Bet

1.80

Superbet

1.80

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

34.6%

@ 3.35+7.0%

Under 3.5

65.4%

@ 1.28-7.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

BetVictor

3.60

Bet365

3.50

Pinnacle

3.44

10Bet

3.35

Betano

3.35

Under

Pinnacle

1.31

Betano

1.30

10Bet

1.30

Betfair

1.29

Superbet

1.29

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

60.3%

@ 2.19+18.2%

39.7%

@ 1.59-18.2%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Betano

2.30

Superbet

2.25

William Hil

2.25

BetVictor

2.25

Bet365

2.25

Betfair

1.67

1xBet

1.62

Unibet

1.60

Marathonbet

1.60

William Hil

1.60

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1 ✓

12.3%@ 7.75+6.6%

2-1

9.2%@ 7.88+3.7%

1-0

7.4%@ 5.21-1.0%

1-2

7.3%@ 22.18+5.4%

2-0

7.0%@ 5.57-0.8%

0-0

6.3%@ 8.87+1.3%

2-2

6.1%@ 21.38+4.0%

0-1

5.6%@ 15.11+2.7%

Raith Rovers goals ↓

	Stenhousemuir goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.3%	5.6%	4.4%	1.9%	0.6%
1	7.4%	12%	7.3%	3.2%	1.1%
2	7.0%	9.2%	6.1%	2.7%	0.9%
3	3.9%	5.1%	3.3%	1.5%	0.5%
4	1.6%	2.1%	1.4%	0.6%	0.2%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raith Rovers goals (down), columns = Stenhousemuir goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Partick

1.85

Livingston

1.60

Dunfermline

1.54

Arbroath

1.48

Raith Rovers

1.25

Stenhousemuir

1.25

Queen's Park

1.14

Ayr Utd

1.08

Inverness CT

1.05

Morton

1.04

Raith Rovers and Stenhousemuir are level in average points per game (both 1.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Partick

1.50

Dunfermline

1.44

Livingston

1.41

Arbroath

1.25

Stenhousemuir

1.25

Raith Rovers

1.19

Ayr Utd

1.06

Morton

1.00

Queen's Park

0.97

Inverness CT

0.93

Raith Rovers is 0.06 goals worse than Stenhousemuir in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.25).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Partick

0.96

Livingston

0.98

Stenhousemuir

1.00

Dunfermline

1.02

Arbroath

1.15

Raith Rovers

1.17

Ayr Utd

1.31

Queen's Park

1.33

Morton

1.38

Inverness CT

1.49

Raith Rovers is 0.17 goals worse than Stenhousemuir in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Raith Rovers

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Stenhousemuir

For 5.5 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.1

🚩 Corners

ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

For 2.1 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.6

🟨 Cards

ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

For 13.6 · Against 13.8 · Total 27.4

⚠️ Fouls

ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Raith Rovers

Split	Corners			Cards			Fouls
Split	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy
Overall (50)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Stronger (1)	-	-	-	0.0	-	0.0	-	-	-
vs Similar (45)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Weaker (4)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
% over line	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	-	-	-
% under line	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	-	-	-

This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stenhousemuir

Split	Corners			Cards			Fouls
Split	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy
Overall (50)	8.5	8.6	8.3	4.4	4.5	4.3	25.8	26.1	25.6
vs Stronger (47)	8.4	8.5	8.3	4.5	4.5	4.5	26.0	26.4	25.6
vs Similar (2)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Weaker (1)	10.0	10.0	-	8.0	8.0	-	20.0	20.0	-
% over line	36%	35%	38%	66%	65%	67%	73%	70%	76%
% under line	64%	65%	62%	34%	35%	33%	27%	30%	24%

This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game

Morton

11.0

Partick

10.3

Livingston

10.1

Arbroath

9.8

Inverness CT

9.1

Dunfermline

9.1

Stenhousemuir

8.6

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game

Ayr Utd

9.0

Stenhousemuir

4.9

Morton

4.6

Livingston

4.3

Partick

4.3

Dunfermline

4.0

Arbroath

3.7

Inverness CT

3.4

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game

Stenhousemuir

25.2

Livingston

25.1

Morton

21.8

Inverness CT

21.7

Dunfermline

21.4

Arbroath

20.8

Partick

20.4

Corners O/U 9.5

Over 9.5

43.5%

@ 1.98-3.1%

Under 9.5

56.5%

@ 1.73+3.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.05

Pinnacle

2.04

1xBet

2.01

Superbet

2.00

Bet365

2.00

Under

Unibet

1.80

Pinnacle

1.74

10Bet

1.73

Bet365

1.73

Superbet

1.73

Cards O/U 3.5

Over 3.5

65.4%

Under 3.5

34.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Fouls O/U 21.5

Over 21.5

60.7%

Under 21.5

39.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Raith Rovers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.1

Avg scored

0.2

Avg conceded

0.9

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.30	0.63	0.47	0.67	0.13	0.60
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (26)	0.23	0.62	0.31	0.69	0.15	0.54
vs Weaker (4)	0.75	0.75	1.50	0.50	0.00	1.00
Clean sheet %	53% (+24pp vs league)

This opponent (Stenhousemuir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Stenhousemuir

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.1

Avg scored

0.8

Avg conceded

0.3

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.63	0.30	0.64	0.29	0.62	0.31
vs Stronger (28)	0.61	0.29	0.62	0.23	0.60	0.33
vs Similar (2)	1.00	0.50	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.00
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	73% (+44pp vs league)

This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

0.0%

Under 0.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

0.0%

Under 1.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

0.0%

Under 2.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Stenhousemuir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Stenhousemuir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Stenhousemuir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 cards	82.4%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Over 1.5	80.7%	1.29	Betano 1.33	Bet365 1.33	Pinnacle 1.31	10Bet 1.30	Superbet 1.30	+9.1%	✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners	78.6%	1.25	Unibet 1.30	Superbet 1.30	Betano 1.24	Marathonbet 1.22	1xBet 1.20	+5.4%	-
Over 19.5 fouls	76.0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Under 25.5 fouls	71.1%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Under 5.5 cards	70.7%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LIV (29)

€6m

DUN (31)

€6m

PAR (22)

€3m

MOR (26)

€2m

ARB (25)

€1m

STE (1)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

DUN (10)

€3m

LIV (12)

€2m

PAR (6)

€1m

MOR (8)

€1m

ARB (5)

€0m

STE (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LIV (8)

€3m

PAR (7)

€1m

DUN (7)

€1m

MOR (9)

€1m

ARB (8)

€1m

STE (1)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

DUN (14)

€2m

LIV (9)

€2m

PAR (9)

€1m

MOR (9)

€1m

ARB (12)

€1m

STE (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Raith Rovers vs Stenhousemuir · H/A from RR

Date	H/A	Game	Score
No games.

Raith Rovers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
01/05/26	H	RR Vs Ross County	3-2
24/04/26	A	ST Johnstone Vs RR	2-0
18/04/26	A	Arbroath Vs RR	2-1
14/04/26	A	Queen's Park Vs RR	0-2
11/04/26	H	RR Vs Morton	3-2
27/03/26	H	RR Vs Ayr Utd	3-0
24/03/26	H	RR Vs Partick	0-2
21/03/26	H	RR Vs Airdrie United	3-1
14/03/26	A	Dunfermline Vs RR	3-0
28/02/26	A	Ross County Vs RR	2-0

Stenhousemuir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
16/05/26	H	STE Vs Alloa Athletic	0-1
13/05/26	A	Alloa Athletic Vs STE	1-3
09/05/26	H	STE Vs Queen of the South	1-1
05/05/26	A	Queen of the South Vs STE	1-1
02/05/26	A	Montrose Vs STE	0-2
25/04/26	H	STE Vs Alloa	1-0
18/04/26	A	Cove Rangers Vs STE	2-0
11/04/26	H	STE Vs Inverness CT	1-1
04/04/26	H	STE Vs Hamilton	3-0
28/03/26	A	East Fife Vs STE	2-2

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Raith Rovers

Scotland: Championship

Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WWLLW	1.42
Home	WLWWW	1.76
Away	LLWLL	1.08

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	38%	52%	24%
AVG goals	2.42	2.88	1.96
Over 1.5 %	74%	92%	56%
Over 2.5 %	42%	48%	36%
Over 3.5 %	22%	28%	16%
Scored	1.34	1.76	0.92
Conceded	1.08	1.12	1.04
BTTS	34%	40%	28%
Clean Sheet	44%	40%	48%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Stenhousemuir

Scotland: Championship

Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WDDWL	1.56
Home	WDWDL	1.65
Away	DLWDW	1.46

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	40%	42%	38%
AVG goals	2.28	2.50	2.04
Over 1.5 %	68%	69%	67%
Over 2.5 %	38%	46%	29%
Over 3.5 %	26%	35%	17%
Scored	1.26	1.50	1.00
Conceded	1.02	1.00	1.04
BTTS	46%	54%	38%
Clean Sheet	40%	42%	38%
Corners	8.45	8.57	8.33
Cards	5.00	5.04	4.95

🏆 14. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Partick	2	6	100%	3.0	3	0	+3	1.5	50%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	1	1.5	0.0	-
2	Stenhousemuir	2	4	50%	2.0	3	1	+2	2.0	100%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	0.5	-
3	Ayr Utd	2	4	50%	2.0	3	1	+2	2.0	100%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	0.5	-
4	Raith Rovers	2	4	50%	2.0	3	2	+1	2.5	100%	50%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.0	-
5	Livingston	2	3	50%	1.5	2	2	+0	2.0	100%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	2	3	2	1.0	1.0	-
6	Dunfermline	2	2	0%	1.0	1	1	+0	1.0	50%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	3	1	2	0.5	0.5	-
7	Inverness CT	2	2	0%	1.0	0	0	+0	0.0	0%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0	-
8	Arbroath	2	1	0%	0.5	0	2	-2	1.0	50%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	1	1	0.0	1.0	-
9	Queen's Park	2	0	0%	0.0	1	4	-3	2.5	100%	50%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.5	2.0	-
10	Morton	2	0	0%	0.0	0	3	-3	1.5	50%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	1	1	1	0.0	1.5	-

Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches

Raith Rovers vs Stenhousemuir Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Raith Rovers

Stenhousemuir

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Raith Rovers

🚩 Corners

🟨 Cards

⚠️ Fouls

Stenhousemuir

🚩 Corners

🟨 Cards

⚠️ Fouls

Raith Rovers

Stenhousemuir

🚩 Total Corners

🟨 Total Cards

⚠️ Total Fouls

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Raith Rovers

Stenhousemuir

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Raith Rovers

Stenhousemuir

📊 13. Overall Statistics

🏆 14. League Table

A Pro feature