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Raith Rvs vs Ayr Result & Analysis

Date: 05/03/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 0-4
RR
Raith Rvs
Vs
51%
27%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
A
Ayr
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Raith Rvs win✗ Miss
50.9%
Avg Implied 48.3% · @ 1.92
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.36
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ayr win✓ Hit
22.5%
Avg Implied 24.1% · @ 3.85
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

RR
Raith Rvs

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L02L00D11D12L22D33D00D03L00DA·PAR18/12A·AYR26/12H·DUN02/01A·INV08/01H·ARB15/01A·MOR28/01H·QUE01/02H·HAM05/02A·KIL19/02H·PAR26/02
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.231.331.401.131.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.291.331.271.451.301.20
vs Weaker (9)1.111.001.501.250.800.80
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

A
Ayr

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L20W10W02L11D01L11D21W21W01LA·QUE18/12H·RAI26/12H·ARB08/01H·MOR15/01A·HAM29/01A·PAR01/02H·DUN05/02A·KIL09/02A·INV19/02H·QUE26/02
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.530.931.200.871.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.771.500.751.170.801.90
vs Weaker (8)1.251.621.671.331.001.80
Clean sheet %17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.0%
@ 2.11+6.8%
Under 2.5
49.0%
@ 1.67-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.9%
Under 3.5
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.2%
0-0
7.8%
1-2
6.0%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
5.4%
Raith Rvs goals ↓
Ayr goals →
01234
07.8%5.8%3.6%1.3%0.3%
19.9%13%6.0%2.1%0.5%
29.2%9.7%5.0%1.8%0.5%
35.2%5.4%2.8%1.0%0.3%
42.2%2.2%1.2%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raith Rvs goals (down), columns = Ayr goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kilmarnock
1.86
Arbroath
1.81
Inverness CT
1.64
Partick
1.44
Raith Rvs
1.39
Hamilton
1.17
Morton
1.11
Ayr
1.08
Dunfermline
0.97
Queen of Sth
0.92
Raith Rvs is 0.31 points better than Ayr in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.08).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Arbroath
1.50
Inverness CT
1.47
Kilmarnock
1.39
Partick
1.28
Raith Rvs
1.22
Ayr
1.08
Hamilton
1.06
Dunfermline
1.00
Queen of Sth
1.00
Morton
1.00
Raith Rvs is 0.14 goals better than Ayr in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.08).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kilmarnock
0.75
Arbroath
0.78
Inverness CT
0.94
Partick
1.11
Raith Rvs
1.22
Morton
1.31
Ayr
1.44
Dunfermline
1.47
Hamilton
1.47
Queen of Sth
1.50
Raith Rvs is 0.22 goals better than Ayr in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.44).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

RR
Raith Rvs

For 5.0 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.3

ðŸšĐ Corners

1909262613824573325223911819109105759H·PARA·KILH·HAMH·QUEA·MORH·ARBA·INVH·DUNA·AYRA·PAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

503221232411222413041525345H·PARA·KILH·HAMH·QUEA·MORH·ARBA·INVH·DUNA·AYRA·PAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 11.9 · Total 22.3

⚠ïļ Fouls

3501091017111349138147915191651591019272413212124352019H·PARA·KILH·HAMH·QUEA·MORH·ARBA·INVH·DUNA·AYRA·PAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

A
Ayr

For 4.2 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

130941104482352864393231013118108101012513H·QUEA·INVA·KILH·DUNA·PARA·HAMH·MORH·ARBH·RAIA·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

60231223333324122425326654146H·QUEA·INVA·KILH·DUNA·PARA·HAMH·MORH·ARBH·RAIA·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 8.9 · Total 21.6

⚠ïļ Fouls

280111214814716121314128118111115510423222128272019222014H·QUEA·INVA·KILH·DUNA·PARA·HAMH·MORH·ARBH·RAIA·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

RR
Raith Rvs

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.811.210.44.34.24.422.221.622.8
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (34)11.211.810.64.13.94.322.522.222.9
vs Weaker (16)9.99.710.14.64.94.421.420.022.6
% over line60%72%48%70%64%76%60%52%68%
% under line40%28%52%30%36%24%40%48%32%
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

A
Ayr

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.29.810.63.33.33.221.222.419.9
vs Stronger (3)11.38.013.02.04.01.022.727.020.5
vs Similar (36)10.110.110.23.43.43.520.521.719.2
vs Weaker (11)10.09.010.83.12.83.322.924.221.8
% over line58%48%68%50%56%44%44%56%32%
% under line42%52%32%50%44%56%56%44%68%
This opponent (Raith Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Raith Rvs
10.8
Dunfermline
10.7
Hamilton
10.6
Queen of Sth
10.5
Partick
10.3
Ayr
10.2
Morton
10.0
Arbroath
9.9
Kilmarnock
9.7
Inverness CT
9.4

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Raith Rvs
4.3
Inverness CT
3.5
Hamilton
3.4
Arbroath
3.4
Partick
3.3
Kilmarnock
3.3
Ayr
3.3
Dunfermline
3.2
Queen of Sth
3.1
Morton
2.8

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Hamilton
24.4
Kilmarnock
24.3
Inverness CT
23.5
Arbroath
23.2
Raith Rvs
22.2
Dunfermline
21.7
Ayr
21.2
Partick
21.2
Queen of Sth
21.0
Morton
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
59.3%
Under 9.5
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.3%
Under 3.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
42.0%
Under 21.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

RR
Raith Rvs

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D10W10W21W21W00D02L00DA·PAR18/12A·AYR26/12H·DUN02/01A·INV08/01H·ARB15/01A·MOR28/01H·QUE01/02H·HAM05/02A·KIL19/02H·PAR26/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.370.800.270.670.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.670.430.730.270.600.60
vs Weaker (9)0.890.221.000.250.800.20
Clean sheet %70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

A
Ayr

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W10W01L01L00D11D11D10W01LA·QUE18/12H·RAI26/12H·ARB08/01H·MOR15/01A·HAM29/01A·PAR01/02H·DUN05/02A·KIL09/02A·INV19/02H·QUE26/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.930.400.870.201.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.230.910.330.750.101.10
vs Weaker (8)0.501.000.671.330.400.80
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Raith Rvs over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rvs over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rvs over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

RR
Raith Rvs

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L00D01L02L01L12L00D01L00DA·PAR18/12A·AYR26/12H·DUN02/01A·INV08/01H·ARB15/01A·MOR28/01H·QUE01/02H·HAM05/02A·KIL19/02H·PAR26/02
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.870.531.130.470.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.620.900.551.180.700.60
vs Weaker (9)0.220.780.501.000.000.60
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

A
Ayr

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L10W00D01L10W01L00D10W11D00DA·QUE18/12H·RAI26/12H·ARB08/01H·MOR15/01A·HAM29/01A·PAR01/02H·DUN05/02A·KIL09/02A·INV19/02H·QUE26/02
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.600.530.330.670.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.550.590.420.420.700.80
vs Weaker (8)0.750.621.000.000.601.00
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Raith Rvs over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rvs over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rvs over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards85.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls85.2%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.576.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls73.5%-------✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards72.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners71.2%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.571.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (9)
€3m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (5)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (13)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
RR wins
4
Draws
2
AYR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Raith Rvs vs Ayr · H/A from RR
DateH/AGameScore
26/12/21AAyr Vs RR2-0
30/10/21HRR Vs Ayr2-1
07/09/21AAyr Vs RR0-2
20/03/21AAyr Vs RR1-1
09/03/21HRR Vs Ayr0-0
11/12/20AAyr Vs RR0-0
10/03/18AAyr Vs RR3-0
13/01/18HRR Vs Ayr1-1

RR
Raith Rvs

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/02/22HRR Vs Partick0-0
19/02/22AKilmarnock Vs RR3-0
05/02/22HRR Vs Hamilton0-0
01/02/22HRR Vs Queen of Sth3-3
28/01/22AMorton Vs RR2-2
15/01/22HRR Vs Arbroath1-2
08/01/22AInverness CT Vs RR1-1
02/01/22HRR Vs Dunfermline0-0
26/12/21AAyr Vs RR2-0
18/12/21APartick Vs RR1-0

A
Ayr

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/02/22HAYR Vs Queen of Sth0-1
19/02/22AInverness CT Vs AYR1-2
09/02/22AKilmarnock Vs AYR1-2
05/02/22HAYR Vs Dunfermline1-1
01/02/22APartick Vs AYR1-0
29/01/22AHamilton Vs AYR1-1
15/01/22HAYR Vs Morton0-2
08/01/22HAYR Vs Arbroath1-0
26/12/21HAYR Vs Raith Rvs2-0
18/12/21AQueen of Sth Vs AYR3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

RR
Raith Rvs
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 0 Wins / 6 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDLD1.44
HomeDLDDD1.48
AwayLLDDL1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%36%36%
AVG goals2.562.842.28
Over 1.5 %66%68%64%
Over 2.5 %46%56%36%
Over 3.5 %30%40%20%
Scored1.301.441.16
Conceded1.261.401.12
BTTS50%56%44%
Clean Sheet28%24%32%
Corners10.8211.2410.40
Cards4.264.164.36
A
Ayr
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWL1.06
HomeWWLDL1.12
AwayLDLWW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%24%24%
AVG goals2.462.082.84
Over 1.5 %76%68%84%
Over 2.5 %42%28%56%
Over 3.5 %26%20%32%
Scored1.020.921.12
Conceded1.441.161.72
BTTS44%40%48%
Clean Sheet22%24%20%
Corners10.189.8010.56
Cards3.283.323.24

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KilmarnockKilmarnock3667
56%
1.9
5027+23
2.1
67%
36%
14%
9.9
47%
3.2
36%
22.6
64%
7
3231.40.8
-
2ArbroathArbroath3665
47%
1.8
5428+26
2.3
61%
44%
22%
10.3
58%
3.3
50%
21.8
47%
1
0001.50.8
-
3Inverness CTInverness CT3659
44%
1.6
5334+19
2.4
64%
47%
22%
8.8
42%
3.3
39%
21.9
50%
1
0001.50.9
-
4PartickPartick3652
39%
1.4
4640+6
2.4
56%
44%
33%
9.6
50%
3.1
36%
20.7
44%
3
1111.31.1
-
5
RR
Raith Rvs
3650
33%
1.4
4444+0
2.4
67%
39%
22%
10.2
53%
3.7
58%
21.2
47%
0
0001.21.2
-
6
H
Hamilton
3642
28%
1.2
3853-15
2.5
69%
42%
25%
10.4
47%
3.9
56%
23.2
61%
0
0001.11.5
-
7MortonMorton3640
25%
1.1
3647-11
2.3
64%
42%
22%
10.4
61%
2.8
31%
20.1
33%
1
0001.01.3
-
8
A
Ayr
3639
25%
1.1
3952-13
2.5
81%
47%
28%
10.2
61%
3.4
53%
20.3
39%
0
0001.11.4
-
9DunfermlineDunfermline3635
19%
1.0
3653-17
2.5
72%
47%
25%
10.1
56%
3.2
42%
21.1
50%
4
2021.01.5
-
10
QO
Queen of Sth
3633
22%
0.9
3654-18
2.5
67%
50%
19%
10.6
64%
2.8
28%
19.7
36%
0
0001.01.5
-
Scotland: Championship 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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