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Raith Rvs vs Dunfermline Result & Analysis

Date: 30/03/2021
Time: 19:05
Final 5-1
RR
Raith Rvs
Vs
46%
28%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Raith Rvs win✓ Hit
45.7%
Avg Implied 34.0% · @ 2.73
Edge
+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied 29.9% · @ 3.11
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline win✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied 36.1% · @ 2.57
Edge
-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

RR
Raith Rvs

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W14L10W01L31W00D00D01L11D10WH·DUN30/01A·DUN03/02A·MOR06/02A·ARB20/02H·ALL27/02H·AYR09/03A·INV12/03H·INV16/03A·AYR20/03H·MOR27/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.171.801.131.331.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.881.591.671.672.121.50
vs Weaker (13)1.150.622.000.330.430.86
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D01L41W02L21W01L10W01L23LA·MOR15/01H·AYR23/01A·HEA30/01H·RAI03/02A·ARB06/02H·ALL20/02A·QUE27/02H·MOR13/03H·INV20/03A·DUN27/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.201.501.001.291.43
vs Stronger (2)1.001.002.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (24)1.461.211.500.921.421.50
vs Weaker (4)1.251.251.331.331.001.00
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.7%
@ 2.24+5.8%
Under 2.5
52.3%
@ 1.62-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.8%
2-0
8.5%
0-1
6.9%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
5.0%
Raith Rvs goals ↓
Dunfermline goals →
01234
08.8%6.9%4.4%1.6%0.4%
110%13%6.6%2.4%0.6%
28.5%9.2%5.0%1.8%0.5%
34.3%4.6%2.5%0.9%0.2%
41.6%1.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raith Rvs goals (down), columns = Dunfermline goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Dundee
1.67
Raith Rvs
1.59
Dunfermline
1.44
Inverness CT
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.19
Arbroath
1.11
Morton
1.07
Ayr
1.07
Alloa
0.81
Raith Rvs is 0.15 points better than Dunfermline in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 1.44).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.33
Dundee
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.67
Dunfermline
1.41
Queen of Sth
1.41
Inverness CT
1.33
Ayr
1.15
Alloa
1.11
Arbroath
1.04
Morton
0.81
Raith Rvs is 0.26 goals better than Dunfermline in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.41).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Inverness CT
1.15
Morton
1.22
Dunfermline
1.26
Arbroath
1.26
Raith Rvs
1.33
Ayr
1.37
Dundee
1.48
Queen of Sth
1.89
Alloa
2.22
Raith Rvs is 0.07 goals worse than Dunfermline in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.26).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

RR
Raith Rvs

For 6.6 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.6

ðŸšĐ Corners

16044718310464133254448848811141016781212H·MORA·AYRH·INVA·INVH·AYRH·ALLA·ARBA·MORA·DUNH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

8042244253315234121226668365534H·MORA·AYRH·INVA·INVH·AYRH·ALLA·ARBA·MORA·DUNH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 12.2 · Total 23.3

⚠ïļ Fouls

2901088191581415791316101311141210111018272329162923252221H·MORA·AYRH·INVA·INVH·AYRH·ALLA·ARBA·MORA·DUNH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DunfermlineDunfermline

For 5.8 · Against 6.1 · Total 11.9

ðŸšĐ Corners

140685467472855846876941491311101012141313A·DUNH·INVH·MORA·QUEH·ALLA·ARBH·RAIA·HEAH·AYRA·MOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

60231113311112112426123101A·DUNH·INVH·MORA·QUEH·ALLA·ARBH·RAIA·HEAH·AYRA·MOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 9.3 · Total 20.9

⚠ïļ Fouls

280131213589121014610510121513101311825181722201522282319A·DUNH·INVH·MORA·QUEH·ALLA·ARBH·RAIA·HEAH·AYRA·MOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

RR
Raith Rvs

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.410.610.34.04.23.822.622.622.6
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (29)11.411.611.24.74.94.423.022.123.7
vs Weaker (21)9.19.19.13.03.12.922.123.321.0
% over line58%62%54%64%75%54%50%50%50%
% under line42%38%46%36%25%46%50%50%50%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.79.811.63.23.52.820.519.721.4
vs Stronger (2)13.012.014.04.58.01.027.527.028.0
vs Similar (41)10.69.611.73.13.23.020.619.721.6
vs Weaker (7)10.110.010.33.14.02.017.918.017.7
% over line68%58%79%46%58%33%38%27%50%
% under line32%42%21%54%42%67%62%73%50%
This opponent (Raith Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Alloa
11.5
Heart Of Midlothian
10.9
Inverness CT
10.7
Dunfermline
10.7
Morton
10.5
Raith Rvs
10.4
Queen of Sth
10.4
Ayr
10.2
Dundee
10.2
Arbroath
9.8

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Raith Rvs
4.0
Heart Of Midlothian
3.8
Dundee
3.3
Ayr
3.2
Inverness CT
3.2
Arbroath
3.2
Dunfermline
3.2
Queen of Sth
3.1
Morton
3.0
Alloa
2.9

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
25.9
Dundee
25.0
Raith Rvs
22.6
Alloa
22.4
Arbroath
22.4
Inverness CT
21.7
Ayr
21.6
Queen of Sth
20.9
Dunfermline
20.5
Morton
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
69.4%
Under 9.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.0%
Under 3.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
63.1%
Under 21.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

RR
Raith Rvs

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D01L10W00D01L00D00D00D00D00DH·DUN30/01A·DUN03/02A·MOR06/02A·ARB20/02H·ALL27/02H·AYR09/03A·INV12/03H·INV16/03A·AYR20/03H·MOR27/03
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.370.870.400.600.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.820.530.780.670.880.38
vs Weaker (13)0.620.151.000.000.290.29
Clean sheet %67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D10W02L11D00D10W00D21WA·MOR15/01H·AYR23/01A·HEA30/01H·RAI03/02A·ARB06/02H·ALL20/02A·QUE27/02H·MOR13/03H·INV20/03A·DUN27/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.530.620.500.500.57
vs Stronger (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (24)0.620.580.750.500.500.67
vs Weaker (4)0.500.500.330.671.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Raith Rvs over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rvs over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rvs over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

RR
Raith Rvs

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W13L00D01L30W00D00D01L11D10WH·DUN30/01A·DUN03/02A·MOR06/02A·ARB20/02H·ALL27/02H·AYR09/03A·INV12/03H·INV16/03A·AYR20/03H·MOR27/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.800.930.730.730.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.061.060.891.001.251.12
vs Weaker (13)0.540.461.000.330.140.57
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DunfermlineDunfermline

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D01L31W00D10W01L00D01L02LA·MOR15/01H·AYR23/01A·HEA30/01H·RAI03/02A·ARB06/02H·ALL20/02A·QUE27/02H·MOR13/03H·INV20/03A·DUN27/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.670.880.500.790.86
vs Stronger (2)1.001.002.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.830.620.750.420.920.83
vs Weaker (4)0.750.751.000.670.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rvs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Raith Rvs over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rvs over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rvs over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards83.4%-------✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners79.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls77.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.574.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.574.0%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards71.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (30)
€22m
DUN (21)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€12m
DUN (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (6)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€6m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
1
RR wins
2
Draws
3
DUN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Raith Rvs vs Dunfermline · H/A from RR
DateH/AGameScore
03/02/21ADunfermline Vs RR4-1
05/12/20HRR Vs Dunfermline2-2
08/04/17ADunfermline Vs RR1-0
02/01/17HRR Vs Dunfermline0-2
05/11/16ADunfermline Vs RR0-0
20/08/16HRR Vs Dunfermline2-0

RR
Raith Rvs

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/03/21HRR Vs Morton1-0
20/03/21AAyr Vs RR1-1
16/03/21HRR Vs Inverness CT0-1
12/03/21AInverness CT Vs RR0-0
09/03/21HRR Vs Ayr0-0
27/02/21HRR Vs Alloa3-1
20/02/21AArbroath Vs RR1-0
06/02/21AMorton Vs RR0-1
03/02/21ADunfermline Vs RR4-1
30/01/21HRR Vs Dundee3-1

DunfermlineDunfermline

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/03/21ADundee Vs DUN3-2
20/03/21HDUN Vs Inverness CT0-1
13/03/21HDUN Vs Morton1-0
27/02/21AQueen of Sth Vs DUN1-0
20/02/21HDUN Vs Alloa2-1
06/02/21AArbroath Vs DUN2-0
03/02/21HDUN Vs Raith Rvs4-1
30/01/21AHeart Of Midlothian Vs DUN1-0
23/01/21HDUN Vs Ayr0-0
15/01/21AMorton Vs DUN0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

RR
Raith Rvs
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLDW1.74
HomeWWDLW2.00
AwayLWLDD1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%58%38%
AVG goals2.882.962.81
Over 1.5 %70%75%65%
Over 2.5 %46%58%35%
Over 3.5 %36%42%31%
Scored1.681.921.46
Conceded1.201.041.35
BTTS52%46%58%
Clean Sheet32%38%27%
Corners10.4410.5810.31
Cards3.964.173.77
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLL1.34
HomeDWWWL1.77
AwayDLLLL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%54%17%
AVG goals2.622.652.58
Over 1.5 %70%73%67%
Over 2.5 %42%46%38%
Over 3.5 %30%31%29%
Scored1.401.621.17
Conceded1.221.041.42
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet24%27%21%
Corners10.669.7711.62
Cards3.163.542.75

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian2757
63%
2.1
6324+39
3.2
78%
59%
41%
10.1
56%
3.0
41%
25.5
74%
22
12462.30.9
-
2DundeeDundee2745
44%
1.7
4940+9
3.3
89%
63%
44%
10.5
67%
3.0
33%
24.7
67%
5
1221.81.5
-
3
RR
Raith Rvs
2743
44%
1.6
4536+9
3.0
70%
56%
44%
11.2
67%
4.5
74%
23.7
74%
0
0001.71.3
-
4DunfermlineDunfermline2739
37%
1.4
3834+4
2.7
59%
48%
37%
11.1
81%
2.9
33%
22.0
52%
4
2021.41.3
-
5Inverness CTInverness CT2736
30%
1.3
3631+5
2.5
78%
44%
26%
10.4
48%
3.5
48%
24.0
63%
1
0001.31.1
-
6
QO
Queen of Sth
2732
33%
1.2
3851-13
3.3
85%
59%
41%
10.3
56%
3.5
48%
21.8
56%
0
0001.41.9
-
7ArbroathArbroath2730
26%
1.1
2834-6
2.3
59%
37%
26%
9.2
56%
3.4
52%
24.5
67%
1
0001.01.3
-
8
A
Ayr
2729
22%
1.1
3137-6
2.5
74%
41%
30%
10.5
63%
3.1
48%
22.2
52%
0
0001.11.4
-
9MortonMorton2729
22%
1.1
2233-11
2.0
59%
30%
19%
10.4
70%
3.0
41%
22.1
48%
1
0000.81.2
-
10
A
Alloa
2722
19%
0.8
3060-30
3.3
89%
67%
41%
10.6
59%
3.4
56%
26.0
78%
0
0001.12.2
-
Scotland: Championship 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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