Ranger's are the clear favourite, a 68 % chance of victory that the model flags as the most likely outcome. Their home form is dominant against weaker opposition, scoring an average of 3.5 goals while conceding only 0.25, and they come off a 2-game winning streak that ended with a 2-0 win over FC Santa Coloma. Esperan ça d'Andorra, meanwhile, struggles on the road against stronger teams, averaging just 0.56 goals scored and conceding 2.89, and their recent 2-game win ended 2-0 against Sporting Escaldes. The expected total is 3.6 goals, with the most probable total being 3 goals at 21 %. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Ranger's, a 9.4 % probability. Home win probability is 68 %, draw 18 %, away win 13 %. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (97.6 %), Under 7.5 (97.0 %), Home +2 handicap (95.1 %), Under 6.5 (92.7 %), Home over 0.5 goals (92.0 %), Away under 2.5 goals (90.6 %), Over 1.5 (88.1 %), and Home or Draw (86.6 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ranger's win
71.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra win
11.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ranger's
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.90
2.00
1.14
1.75
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
2.50
1.67
3.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.89
0.78
1.78
0.67
2.00
0.89
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
0.38
3.50
0.50
1.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esperança d'Andorra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.90
0.67
1.60
0.93
2.20
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
2.65
0.25
2.38
0.56
2.89
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.10
1.00
0.83
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.33
2.00
0.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ranger's) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.5%
Under 1.5
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.4%
Under 2.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
49.3%
Under 3.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.7%
No
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.2%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
8.0%
3-0
8.0%
1-1
7.7%
1-0
6.2%
4-1
5.3%
4-0
5.2%
Ranger's goals ↓
Esperança d'Andorra goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
2.0%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
1
6.2%
7.7%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
2
9.1%
9.2%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
3
8.0%
8.0%
4.1%
1.4%
0.3%
4
5.2%
5.3%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ranger's goals (down), columns = Esperança d'Andorra goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2.25
Ranger's
2.00
FC Santa Coloma
1.83
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.42
Casa de Portugal
1.22
Penya Encarnada
1.00
Ordino
0.92
Carroi
0.72
Esperança d'Andorra
0.65
Sporting Escaldes
0.00
Ranger's is 1.35 points better than Esperança d'Andorra in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.96
Ranger's
1.92
FC Santa Coloma
1.88
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.29
Casa de Portugal
1.16
Ordino
1.12
Penya Encarnada
0.79
Esperança d'Andorra
0.77
Carroi
0.60
Sporting Escaldes
0.50
Ranger's is 1.15 goals better than Esperança d'Andorra in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 0.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Santa Coloma
0.83
Ranger's
0.92
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.00
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.08
Casa de Portugal
1.44
Penya Encarnada
1.71
Ordino
1.75
Esperança d'Andorra
1.85
Carroi
2.20
Sporting Escaldes
2.50
Ranger's is 0.93 goals better than Esperança d'Andorra in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.85).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ranger's or Draw
88.5%
Avg Implied -
71%
17%
12%
covers Ranger's + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ranger's or Esperança d'Andorra
82.7%
Avg Implied -
71%
17%
12%
covers Ranger's + Esperança d'Andorra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Esperança d'Andorra
28.8%
Avg Implied -
71%
17%
12%
covers Draw + Esperança d'Andorra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ranger's over/under 0.5
Over
92.8%
Under
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 1.5
Over
73.8%
Under
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 2.5
Over
48.9%
Under
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 3.5
Over
27.0%
Under
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5
Over
63.6%
Under
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5
Over
26.8%
Under
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ranger's, so a minus line means Ranger's give that many goals of a start and Esperança d'Andorra receive them. At -1, Ranger's must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ranger's win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ranger's)
Ranger's -2
30.4%
Draw -2
20.3%
Esperança d'Andorra +2
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ranger's)
Ranger's -1
50.7%
Draw -1
20.5%
Esperança d'Andorra +1
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ranger's)
Ranger's +1
88.5%
Draw +1
7.5%
Esperança d'Andorra -1
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ranger's)
Ranger's +2
95.9%
Draw +2
3.0%
Esperança d'Andorra -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ranger's
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.86
0.57
0.88
0.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.75
0.67
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.39
0.78
0.22
0.89
0.56
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.83
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esperança d'Andorra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.90
0.33
0.87
0.13
0.93
vs Stronger (17)
0.06
1.18
0.12
1.25
0.00
1.11
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.64
0.50
0.50
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ranger's) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.2%
Under 0.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.4%
Under 1.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.4%
Under 2.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ranger's over/under 0.5 HT
Over
76.0%
Under
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 1.5 HT
Over
43.0%
Under
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 2.5 HT
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5 HT
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5 HT
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ranger's
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.14
0.57
0.88
0.31
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.39
1.00
0.44
1.11
0.33
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.38
2.00
0.50
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Esperança d'Andorra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Esperança d'Andorra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.33
0.73
0.67
1.47
vs Stronger (17)
0.35
1.47
0.12
1.12
0.56
1.78
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.73
0.50
0.33
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ranger's) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
87.5%
Under 0.5
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
58.6%
Under 1.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
32.9%
Under 2.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ranger's over/under 0.5 2H
Over
82.3%
Under
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 1.5 2H
Over
47.1%
Under
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 2.5 2H
Over
26.9%
Under
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 0.5 2H
Over
34.8%
Under
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 1.5 2H
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Esperança d'Andorra over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 HT goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (25)
€4m
RAN (24)
€4m
ACD (25)
€3m
FSC (28)
€3m
PE (26)
€3m
CAR (21)
€2m
ED (16)
€2m
ORD (22)
€2m
SE (1)
€0m
Ranger's's squad is €2m more valuable than Esperança d'Andorra's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (9)
€2m
FSC (10)
€2m
RAN (8)
€1m
ORD (6)
€1m
ED (6)
€1m
ACD (5)
€1m
PE (6)
€1m
CAR (4)
€0m
SE (1)
€0m
Ranger's and Esperança d'Andorra have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACD (8)
€1m
RAN (4)
€1m
CAR (7)
€1m
ICD (4)
€1m
PE (5)
€1m
FSC (5)
€1m
ED (2)
€0m
ORD (4)
€0m
SE (0)
€0m
Ranger's and Esperança d'Andorra have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (15)
€2m
RAN (12)
€2m
ACD (12)
€2m
ICD (12)
€2m
FSC (13)
€1m
CAR (10)
€1m
ED (8)
€1m
ORD (12)
€1m
SE (0)
€0m
Ranger's's defence is €1m more valuable than Esperança d'Andorra's (€2m vs €1m).
Andorra: 1a Divisió 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 1a Divisió stats & trends →