The match between Ranger's and Inter Club d'Escaldes is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The probability of a home victory sits at 41 %, a draw at 27 %, and an away win at 31 %. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderate scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9 % chance. Ranger's, playing at home against a stronger opponent, average one goal scored and two conceded. Inter Club d'Escaldes, on the road against a weaker side, average 2.86 goals scored and 0.43 conceded. The model’s selection is an over 1.5-goal outcome, with a 78.8 % probability. Ranger's recent form shows a two-game winning streak after a 2-0 victory over FC Santa Coloma, while Inter Club d'Escaldes comes off a 2-2 draw with Drita. The model’s pick remains the home win, with the other probabilities and the over 1.5 selection presented as outlined.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Inter Club d'Escaldes turned a 3-5 defeat into a dramatic away win, snapping the Rangers’ two-game winning run. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was given a 41 % probability but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.8 % chance, hit as the match produced eight goals. The final score of 3-5 confirmed the away triumph, and the Rangers’ home form had been strong, yet they failed to convert it into victory. The prediction model’s other picks all settled, but only the Over 1.5 goal selection succeeded.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ranger's win✗ Miss
41.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes win✓ Hit
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ranger's
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.80
2.43
0.93
1.69
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.36
1.00
1.17
1.00
1.60
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
2.69
0.50
4.17
0.50
1.80
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Club d'Escaldes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.03
2.06
0.75
2.21
1.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.50
1.67
1.40
0.80
1.57
2.29
vs Weaker (18)
2.56
0.61
2.36
0.73
2.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ranger's) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.1%
Under 2.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.8%
Under 3.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.5%
No
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
7.7%
1-2
7.7%
0-0
7.0%
2-0
6.8%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
Ranger's goals ↓
Inter Club d'Escaldes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
6.5%
5.0%
2.2%
0.7%
1
7.7%
13%
7.7%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.8%
9.0%
5.9%
2.6%
0.8%
3
3.5%
4.6%
3.0%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.3%
1.8%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ranger's goals (down), columns = Inter Club d'Escaldes goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2.25
UE Santa Coloma
2.16
Ranger's
2.00
FC Santa Coloma
1.83
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.42
Penya Encarnada
1.00
Ordino
0.92
Carroi
0.72
Esperança d'Andorra
0.65
Pas de la Casa
0.50
Sporting Escaldes
0.00
Ranger's is 0.25 points worse than Inter Club d'Escaldes in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.96
UE Santa Coloma
1.92
Ranger's
1.92
FC Santa Coloma
1.88
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.29
Ordino
1.12
Penya Encarnada
0.79
Esperança d'Andorra
0.77
Carroi
0.60
Sporting Escaldes
0.50
Pas de la Casa
0.00
Ranger's is 0.04 goals worse than Inter Club d'Escaldes in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UE Santa Coloma
0.52
FC Santa Coloma
0.83
Ranger's
0.92
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.00
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.08
Pas de la Casa
1.50
Penya Encarnada
1.71
Ordino
1.75
Esperança d'Andorra
1.85
Carroi
2.20
Sporting Escaldes
2.50
Ranger's is 0.08 goals better than Inter Club d'Escaldes in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ranger's
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.43
1.00
0.43
0.81
0.44
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.45
0.50
0.33
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
0.25
1.83
0.17
0.80
0.30
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Club d'Escaldes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.33
0.81
0.25
1.00
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.20
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (18)
1.17
0.22
1.00
0.27
1.43
0.14
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Ranger's) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ranger's over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ranger's
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.37
1.43
0.50
0.88
0.25
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.55
0.67
0.67
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (16)
1.50
0.25
2.33
0.33
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter Club d'Escaldes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.70
1.25
0.50
1.21
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.00
1.17
1.00
0.60
1.00
1.57
vs Weaker (18)
1.39
0.39
1.36
0.45
1.43
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ranger's) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ranger's over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ranger's over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter Club d'Escaldes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Andorra: 1a Divisió 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 1a Divisió stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
UE Santa Coloma
FC Santa Coloma
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Penya Encarnada
Ordino
Carroi
Esperança d'Andorra
Pas de la Casa
Sporting Escaldes