Rangers are the clear favourites, the model rating them at 82% for a home win, with a 15% chance of a draw and only 4% for a Motherwell victory. The prediction favours a 2-0 scoreline, the most likely outcome at 17.5% probability, and the expected total of 2.8 goals, with a 24% chance that the match will finish with exactly two goals. Rangers have been prolific at home, averaging 2.36 goals scored and conceding just 0.5 against weaker opposition, while Motherwell, playing away against stronger sides, averages only 0.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls (83.7%), Home win (81.5% with a 4% edge), Over 8.5 corners (79.0%), Over 1.5 goals (77.6%), Over 2.5 cards (77.5%), Under 5.5 cards (77.1%) and Over 21.5 fouls (71.1%). The home side’s recent form shows a win, drawing from a 1-0 win over Aberdeen, while Motherwell’s last result was a 3-3 draw against St Mirren.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite Rangers failed to deliver, as the match finished 2-2, a draw that shocked the model’s expectation of a home win. Rangers, riding a win in their last five, had an 82% chance of triumph, yet the result was a stalemate. The model’s selection for a home win was therefore wrong. The suggested picks all came through: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 83.7%, Over 8.5 corners at 79.0%, Over 1.5 goals at 77.6%, Over 2.5 cards at 77.5%, Under 5.5 cards at 77.1% and Over 21.5 fouls at 71.1%. Each probability was expressed in percentage terms, and every pick was noted as hit or missed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rangers win✗ Miss
81.5%
Avg Implied 77.5% · @ 1.22
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
14.5%
Avg Implied 15.5% · @ 6.08
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Motherwell win✗ Miss
3.9%
Avg Implied 7.0% · @ 13.58
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.77
2.38
0.50
2.07
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.67
1.33
2.50
0.50
0.00
3.00
vs Weaker (27)
2.30
0.70
2.36
0.50
2.23
0.92
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.47
1.31
1.38
0.86
1.57
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.80
0.33
4.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.24
1.20
1.54
0.77
0.92
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.6%
Under 1.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.2%
@ 1.67-3.3%
Under 2.5
46.8%
@ 2.17+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.9%
Under 3.5
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
30.4%
No
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
17.5%
3-0
14.1%
1-0
14.0%
4-0
8.5%
2-1
7.0%
0-0
6.6%
1-1
6.4%
3-1
5.6%
Rangers goals ↓
Motherwell goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
1
14%
6.4%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
2
18%
7.0%
1.4%
0.2%
0.0%
3
14%
5.6%
1.1%
0.1%
0.0%
4
8.5%
3.4%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rangers goals (down), columns = Motherwell goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
Rangers is 1.13 points better than Motherwell in terms of average points per game (2.34 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
Rangers is 1.00 goals better than Motherwell in terms of goals scored per game (2.11 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
Rangers is 0.79 goals better than Motherwell in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rangers
For 6.6 · Against 4.7 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 10.5 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
For 4.5 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 13.0 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rangers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.1
10.9
4.0
3.7
4.3
23.2
22.7
23.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
11.4
10.0
13.5
4.2
4.0
4.5
26.4
26.3
26.5
vs Weaker (45)
11.0
11.2
10.7
4.0
3.6
4.3
22.8
22.2
23.4
% over line
64%
60%
68%
54%
48%
60%
66%
60%
72%
% under line
36%
40%
32%
46%
52%
40%
34%
40%
28%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.5
11.0
3.8
4.1
3.5
26.5
27.5
25.7
vs Stronger (8)
12.9
12.8
13.0
2.9
3.0
2.8
23.5
24.2
22.8
vs Similar (39)
9.8
8.7
10.9
4.0
4.2
3.8
27.1
27.9
26.3
vs Weaker (3)
9.0
12.0
7.5
4.0
7.0
2.5
27.3
31.0
25.5
% over line
56%
50%
62%
56%
62%
50%
84%
88%
81%
% under line
44%
50%
38%
44%
38%
50%
16%
12%
19%
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.5
Dundee
11.0
Rangers
11.0
Dundee Utd
10.9
ST Mirren
10.7
Ross County
10.7
Heart Of Midlothian
10.5
Motherwell
10.3
ST Johnstone
10.0
Hibernian
9.9
Aberdeen
9.6
Livingston
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rangers
4.0
Ross County
4.0
Aberdeen
3.9
Livingston
3.9
Motherwell
3.8
ST Johnstone
3.7
Hibernian
3.7
Heart Of Midlothian
3.7
Dundee
3.7
Dundee Utd
3.6
ST Mirren
3.4
Celtic
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
27.0
Motherwell
26.5
Dundee
25.3
Livingston
25.1
Heart Of Midlothian
24.8
Ross County
24.7
ST Johnstone
24.7
Hibernian
24.6
ST Mirren
24.0
Dundee Utd
23.7
Rangers
23.2
Celtic
22.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
68.6%
Under 9.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.4%
Under 3.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
71.1%
Under 21.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.31
1.00
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
0.50
0.00
3.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.04
0.41
1.00
0.29
1.08
0.54
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.69
0.56
0.00
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.60
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.64
0.77
0.23
0.00
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.27
1.38
0.19
1.07
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.26
0.30
1.36
0.21
1.15
0.38
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motherwell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.62
0.81
0.86
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.20
0.00
2.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.56
0.77
0.54
0.92
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
81.5%
1.22
-
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rangers · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thelo Aasgaard33%
Lawrence Shankland20%
Ryan Don Naderi20%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
James Penrice0%
Daisuke Yokota0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Vanja Dragojević0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dan Neil50%
Dujon Sterling50%
Vanja Dragojević33%
Cameron Devlin25%
Lawrence Shankland20%
Emmanuel Fernandez20%
Findlay Curtis20%
Ivor Pandur0%
James Penrice0%
Daisuke Yokota0%
Thelo Aasgaard0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daisuke Yokota25%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
Lawrence Shankland0%
James Penrice0%
Thelo Aasgaard0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Vanja Dragojević0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thelo Aasgaard33%
Vanja Dragojević33%
Djeidi Gassama20%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
Lawrence Shankland0%
James Penrice0%
Daisuke Yokota0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Motherwell · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Regan Charles-Cook40%
Lukas Fadinger20%
Emmanuel Longelo20%
Ibrahim Said20%
Tawanda Maswanhise20%
Alex Paulsen0%
Alex Lowry0%
Martin Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lukas Fadinger60%
Martin Moormann50%
Joe Hodge33%
Tom Sparrow25%
Alex Lowry20%
Jamie Knight-Lebel20%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Emmanuel Longelo0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Williams33%
Alex Lowry20%
Emmanuel Longelo20%
Ibrahim Said20%
Lukas Fadinger0%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Martin Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tawanda Maswanhise40%
Lukas Fadinger20%
Alex Lowry20%
Emmanuel Longelo20%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Martin Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Rangers's squad is €120m more valuable than Motherwell's (€136m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Rangers's attack is €29m more valuable than Motherwell's (€38m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Rangers's midfield is €43m more valuable than Motherwell's (€44m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Rangers's defence is €49m more valuable than Motherwell's (€54m vs €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
Heart Of Midlothian
Livingston
Dundee Utd
Hibernian
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
Ross County
ST Johnstone
Dundee