Rangers enter the match as the clear favourite, a 81% chance of victory that reflects their dominant home form. Their average of 3.07 goals scored and only 0.14 conceded against weaker opposition at home underscores the model’s confidence. ST Mirren, playing away against a stronger side, averages just 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, making a Rangers win the most likely outcome. The model’s pick is a Rangers win, supported by the 80.7% probability in the suggested picks and an 8% edge over other possibilities.
The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate scoring game, with the most probable total being two goals at a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Rangers, carrying a 18.9% chance. Home win probability stands at 81%, draw at 16%, and away win at 4%.
Additional selections include Under 5.5 cards (94.4%), Under 4.5 cards (86.4%), Over 19.5 fouls (80.2%), Over 1.5 goals (73.9%), Under 3.5 goals (73.5%), BTTS No (73.2%), and Under 3.5 cards (71.6%). Rangers’ recent win against Aberdeen and ST Mirren’s draw against Motherwell add context, but the venue advantage and form data keep the Rangers win as the most probable outcome.
Results analysis
Rangers’ win extends their recent run, with a 3-0 triumph over ST Mirren confirming the model’s 81% favourite prediction of a home win. The model’s call was correct, and the final score matched the anticipated 3-0 outcome. The selection of Under 5.5 cards hit at 94.4%, as did Under 4.5 cards at 86.4%. Home win itself, with an 80.7% probability, was a hit, and Over 19.5 fouls at 80.2% also succeeded. Over 1.5 goals at 73.9% and Under 3.5 goals at 73.5% were correct, as were BTTS No at 73.2% and Under 3.5 cards at 71.6%. All model picks settled in favour of the Rangers.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rangers win✓ Hit
80.7%
Avg Implied 72.9% · @ 1.29
Edge
+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
15.6%
Avg Implied 17.4% · @ 5.40
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren win✗ Miss
3.8%
Avg Implied 9.7% · @ 9.72
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.43
0.30
2.93
0.13
1.93
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (28)
2.50
0.32
3.07
0.14
1.93
0.50
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.13
0.81
1.31
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
1.91
0.50
2.33
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (19)
1.16
0.68
1.00
0.70
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.9%
Under 1.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.3%
@ 1.68-8.0%
Under 2.5
51.7%
@ 2.16+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.5%
Under 3.5
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
26.8%
No
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
18.9%
1-0
16.1%
3-0 ✓
14.2%
4-0
8.0%
0-0
8.0%
2-1
6.5%
1-1
6.4%
3-1
4.9%
Rangers goals ↓
ST Mirren goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
2.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
1
16%
6.4%
1.0%
0.1%
0.0%
2
19%
6.5%
1.1%
0.1%
0.0%
3
14%
4.9%
0.9%
0.1%
0.0%
4
8.0%
2.8%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rangers goals (down), columns = ST Mirren goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rangers
2.68
Celtic
2.03
Hibernian
1.66
Aberdeen
1.47
Livingston
1.18
ST Mirren
1.18
Motherwell
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.18
Dundee Utd
1.16
Ross County
1.03
Kilmarnock
0.95
Hamilton
0.79
Rangers is 1.50 points better than ST Mirren in terms of average points per game (2.68 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.42
Celtic
2.05
Hibernian
1.26
Kilmarnock
1.13
Livingston
1.11
Motherwell
1.03
ST Mirren
0.97
Aberdeen
0.95
ST Johnstone
0.95
Ross County
0.92
Hamilton
0.89
Dundee Utd
0.84
Rangers is 1.45 goals better than ST Mirren in terms of goals scored per game (2.42 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rangers
0.34
Celtic
0.76
Hibernian
0.92
Aberdeen
1.00
ST Mirren
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.21
Dundee Utd
1.32
Livingston
1.42
Kilmarnock
1.42
Motherwell
1.45
Ross County
1.74
Hamilton
1.76
Rangers is 0.84 goals better than ST Mirren in terms of goals conceded per game (0.34 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rangers
For 5.9 · Against 2.8 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 14.7 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
For 4.7 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 12.8 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rangers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.9
10.0
3.4
3.0
3.7
23.5
22.4
24.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
10.7
8.0
12.0
6.0
7.0
5.5
31.7
34.0
30.5
vs Weaker (47)
10.9
12.0
9.8
3.2
2.8
3.6
23.0
21.9
23.9
% over line
56%
65%
48%
40%
26%
52%
60%
48%
70%
% under line
44%
35%
52%
60%
74%
48%
40%
52%
30%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.2
11.3
3.2
3.3
3.0
23.9
24.7
22.9
vs Stronger (20)
9.7
9.1
10.3
2.7
3.2
2.2
23.5
25.5
21.5
vs Similar (30)
11.3
10.8
12.0
3.5
3.4
3.6
24.2
24.3
24.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
56%
74%
40%
48%
30%
68%
78%
57%
% under line
36%
44%
26%
60%
52%
70%
32%
22%
43%
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton
10.9
Rangers
10.8
ST Mirren
10.7
Kilmarnock
10.6
Celtic
10.5
Hibernian
10.5
Motherwell
10.5
Dundee Utd
10.5
ST Johnstone
9.6
Livingston
9.5
Aberdeen
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Kilmarnock
3.5
Dundee Utd
3.4
Motherwell
3.4
Ross County
3.4
Rangers
3.4
ST Johnstone
3.3
Hamilton
3.2
ST Mirren
3.2
Hibernian
3.1
Livingston
3.0
Celtic
2.8
Aberdeen
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.7
Kilmarnock
25.1
ST Johnstone
24.9
Hamilton
24.7
Hibernian
24.6
Motherwell
24.6
Ross County
24.5
Livingston
24.2
ST Mirren
23.9
Rangers
23.5
Dundee Utd
22.9
Celtic
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
57.1%
Under 9.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.4%
Under 3.5
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
66.3%
Under 21.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.13
1.40
0.07
1.07
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (28)
1.29
0.14
1.50
0.07
1.07
0.21
Clean sheet %
87% (+58pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.38
0.81
0.50
0.36
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.00
0.33
1.33
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.37
0.40
0.50
0.56
0.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.17
1.53
0.07
0.87
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (28)
1.21
0.18
1.57
0.07
0.86
0.29
Clean sheet %
83% (+55pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.44
0.50
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
0.91
0.17
1.00
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.32
0.60
0.20
0.78
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Rangers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
80.7%
1.29
-
-
-
-
-
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS No
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Rangers clean sheet
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rangers · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thelo Aasgaard33%
Lawrence Shankland20%
Ryan Don Naderi20%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
James Penrice0%
Daisuke Yokota0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Vanja Dragojević0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dan Neil50%
Dujon Sterling50%
Vanja Dragojević33%
Cameron Devlin25%
Lawrence Shankland20%
Emmanuel Fernandez20%
Findlay Curtis20%
Ivor Pandur0%
James Penrice0%
Daisuke Yokota0%
Thelo Aasgaard0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daisuke Yokota25%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
Lawrence Shankland0%
James Penrice0%
Thelo Aasgaard0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Djeidi Gassama0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
Vanja Dragojević0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thelo Aasgaard33%
Vanja Dragojević33%
Djeidi Gassama20%
Cameron Devlin0%
Ivor Pandur0%
Dan Neil0%
Dujon Sterling0%
Lawrence Shankland0%
James Penrice0%
Daisuke Yokota0%
Ryan Don Naderi0%
Emmanuel Fernandez0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Olwethu Makhanya0%
Findlay Curtis0%
ST Mirren · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Nsio33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Eseosa Sule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Carr100%
Luke Thomas33%
Jake Young33%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Gogić33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Luke Thomas0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eseosa Sule67%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
Chris Mochrie0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Jacob Chapman0%
Jake Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
Paul Nsio0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Rangers's squad is €129m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€136m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Rangers's attack is €37m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€38m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Rangers's midfield is €41m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€44m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Rangers's defence is €50m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€54m vs €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Hibernian
Aberdeen
ST Johnstone
Livingston
Motherwell
Dundee Utd
Ross County
Kilmarnock