Rapid Vienna is the favourite to win at home against Ried, with a 53% chance of taking all three points. The match is likely to be a low-scoring affair, with an expected total of 2.4 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring 13.1% of the time. Rapid Vienna has a strong home record, scoring 0.75 goals on average against weaker opponents and conceding 1.75. Ried, on the other hand, has struggled away against stronger opponents, scoring 1.5 goals and conceding 1.75. The model's selection is the Home win, with a 53% chance of success. The model also suggests Under 3.5 goals (77.8%), Over 21.5 fouls (72.0%), and Over 1.5 goals (70.4%). Rapid Vienna has a 53% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 19% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The win extends Rapid Vienna's run to three consecutive victories. The final score was 3-0 in favor of the home side. The model's call of a home win was correct, as Rapid Vienna were the pre-match favorites with a 53% probability. The model's selection of a home win paid off. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 77.8% probability, while Over 21.5 fouls missed, with a 72% probability. In contrast, the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a 70.4% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rapid Vienna win✓ Hit
53.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ried win✗ Miss
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rapid Vienna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.50
0.93
1.36
0.88
1.62
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.80
1.87
1.00
1.50
0.57
2.29
vs Weaker (12)
1.00
1.42
0.75
1.75
1.12
1.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.13
1.53
0.88
0.85
1.46
vs Stronger (8)
1.25
1.50
1.40
1.20
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.24
1.05
1.58
0.75
0.78
1.44
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapid Vienna) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.4%
Under 1.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.1%
Under 2.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.2%
Under 3.5
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.2%
No
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-0
12.9%
2-0
11.0%
0-0
10.2%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.4%
3-0 ✓
5.7%
1-2
5.0%
Rapid Vienna goals ↓
Ried goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
6.4%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
5.0%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.3%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
5.7%
4.8%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.2%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rapid Vienna goals (down), columns = Ried goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lask Linz
1.81
Sturm Graz
1.75
Red Bull Salzburg
1.50
Austria Vienna
1.47
Rapid Vienna
1.38
Ried
1.37
TSV Hartberg
1.31
SCR Altach
1.31
WSG Wattens
1.25
Wolfsberger AC
1.24
Grazer AK
1.16
FC BW Linz
0.91
Rapid Vienna is 0.01 points better than Ried in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lask Linz
1.75
Red Bull Salzburg
1.75
Sturm Graz
1.59
Austria Vienna
1.41
Grazer AK
1.31
Wolfsberger AC
1.27
TSV Hartberg
1.25
WSG Wattens
1.25
Ried
1.20
Rapid Vienna
1.18
FC BW Linz
1.16
SCR Altach
1.12
Rapid Vienna is 0.02 goals worse than Ried in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sturm Graz
1.09
SCR Altach
1.22
TSV Hartberg
1.25
Rapid Vienna
1.26
Red Bull Salzburg
1.28
Lask Linz
1.31
Wolfsberger AC
1.33
Ried
1.34
Grazer AK
1.41
FC BW Linz
1.53
Austria Vienna
1.56
WSG Wattens
1.62
Rapid Vienna is 0.08 goals better than Ried in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.34).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Red Bull Salzburg
60%
Rapid Vienna
56%
Sturm Graz
54%
SCR Altach
52%
Wolfsberger AC
51%
FC BW Linz
50%
Ried
49%
Lask Linz
49%
Austria Vienna
49%
Grazer AK
48%
WSG Wattens
44%
TSV Hartberg
39%
Rapid Vienna is 6.5 percentage points better than Ried in terms of average possession (56% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rapid Vienna
For 4.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.8 · Against 13.4 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ried
For 4.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 12.4 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rapid Vienna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.5
10.0
3.8
3.9
3.8
24.6
24.1
25.1
vs Stronger (4)
8.2
8.0
8.5
5.2
3.5
7.0
25.5
21.0
30.0
vs Similar (24)
8.9
8.5
9.4
3.7
4.4
3.0
25.5
25.9
25.0
vs Weaker (22)
10.9
11.0
10.9
3.7
3.2
4.0
23.5
22.7
24.2
% over line
55%
55%
55%
54%
43%
63%
73%
68%
77%
% under line
45%
45%
45%
46%
57%
37%
27%
32%
23%
This opponent (Ried) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.1
8.8
4.1
4.2
4.0
22.6
23.0
22.2
vs Stronger (11)
9.2
11.0
7.0
3.7
3.6
4.0
21.4
21.6
21.2
vs Similar (32)
9.0
8.9
9.1
4.6
4.4
4.7
22.8
22.7
22.9
vs Weaker (7)
8.0
7.0
11.0
2.3
4.0
1.0
24.2
26.7
17.0
% over line
37%
39%
35%
64%
65%
62%
60%
57%
65%
% under line
63%
61%
65%
36%
35%
38%
40%
43%
35%
This opponent (Rapid Vienna) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Austria Vienna
10.3
Lask Linz
10.3
Rapid Vienna
9.9
WSG Wattens
9.8
Sturm Graz
9.5
Wolfsberger AC
9.5
TSV Hartberg
9.4
Red Bull Salzburg
9.1
Grazer AK
9.0
FC BW Linz
8.8
SCR Altach
8.5
Ried
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SCR Altach
5.4
Grazer AK
5.0
Sturm Graz
5.0
Ried
4.9
TSV Hartberg
4.8
Wolfsberger AC
4.7
FC BW Linz
4.6
WSG Wattens
4.6
Austria Vienna
4.5
Rapid Vienna
4.4
Lask Linz
4.0
Red Bull Salzburg
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rapid Vienna
24.2
SCR Altach
23.9
Sturm Graz
23.7
Grazer AK
23.3
Wolfsberger AC
22.8
Ried
22.7
Austria Vienna
22.7
FC BW Linz
22.5
WSG Wattens
22.4
TSV Hartberg
22.1
Lask Linz
20.6
Red Bull Salzburg
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
44.0%
Under 9.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.3%
Under 3.5
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
65.3%
Under 21.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rapid Vienna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.70
0.29
0.71
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.27
0.87
0.25
0.88
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (12)
0.42
0.67
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.40
0.53
0.24
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.62
0.60
0.40
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.33
0.50
0.17
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapid Vienna) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rapid Vienna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapid Vienna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapid Vienna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rapid Vienna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.64
0.64
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.53
1.00
0.75
0.62
0.29
1.43
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.62
0.62
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Ried) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ried
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
1.00
0.65
0.46
0.85
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.88
0.80
0.80
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.71
1.08
0.58
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapid Vienna) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rapid Vienna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapid Vienna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapid Vienna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ried over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (36)
€192m
SG (32)
€59m
LL (26)
€48m
RV (37)
€46m
WA (33)
€35m
AV (35)
€30m
TH (30)
€14m
RIE (27)
€12m
SA (30)
€12m
GA (27)
€10m
Rapid Vienna's squad is €34m more valuable than Ried's (€46m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (11)
€93m
SG (10)
€20m
LL (8)
€17m
RV (13)
€17m
WA (11)
€14m
AV (13)
€13m
RIE (7)
€6m
GA (8)
€4m
TH (8)
€4m
SA (12)
€4m
Rapid Vienna's attack is €11m more valuable than Ried's (€17m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (9)
€40m
SG (5)
€17m
RV (7)
€10m
LL (8)
€8m
AV (6)
€7m
RIE (10)
€4m
WA (7)
€3m
TH (7)
€3m
GA (7)
€2m
SA (4)
€1m
Rapid Vienna's midfield is €6m more valuable than Ried's (€10m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RBS (16)
€59m
LL (10)
€22m
SG (17)
€22m
RV (17)
€19m
WA (15)
€18m
AV (16)
€10m
TH (15)
€7m
SA (14)
€6m
GA (12)
€4m
RIE (10)
€2m
Rapid Vienna's defence is €17m more valuable than Ried's (€19m vs €2m).
Austria: Bundesliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
Austria Vienna
TSV Hartberg
SCR Altach
Wolfsberger AC
WSG Wattens
Grazer AK
FC BW Linz