The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an average of 3.8 goals expected. Rapperswil, playing at home against a stronger opponent, has been prolific, averaging 2.5 goals scored and conceding 4.5, while FC Aarau, on the road against a weaker side, has been more efficient, scoring 2.2 and conceding only 1.4. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 for the away side, with an 8.8% probability. Home win is 26%, draw 22%, and away win 52%, making an away victory the model’s pick. The single most likely total of goals is 3, with a 20% chance. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (96.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.6%), Under 6.5 (90.9%), Over 1.5 (90.1%), Away over 0.5 goals (89.4%), Away +2 handicap (87.7%), Under 5.5 (81.5%), and Away under 3.5 goals (81.1%). Rapperswil’s recent form shows three straight defeats, while FC Aarau comes off a win, adding context to the predicted outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rapperswil win
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau win
51.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rapperswil
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.87
1.60
2.00
1.60
1.73
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
3.60
2.50
4.50
1.33
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.56
1.52
1.46
1.62
1.67
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Aarau
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.40
2.07
1.07
1.88
1.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.68
1.53
1.62
1.12
1.73
1.82
vs Weaker (11)
2.45
1.18
2.67
1.00
2.20
1.40
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapperswil) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.6%
Under 1.5
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72.3%
Under 2.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
51.6%
Under 3.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
70.9%
No
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.8%
1-2
8.8%
2-2
6.8%
1-3
6.5%
2-1
6.2%
0-2
5.7%
2-3
5.0%
0-1
4.4%
Rapperswil goals ↓
FC Aarau goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
4.4%
5.7%
4.2%
2.3%
1
2.8%
8.8%
8.8%
6.5%
3.6%
2
2.8%
6.2%
6.8%
5.0%
2.8%
3
1.5%
3.2%
3.5%
2.6%
1.4%
4
0.6%
1.3%
1.4%
1.0%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rapperswil goals (down), columns = FC Aarau goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2.33
Yverdon Sport
2.00
SC Kriens
1.67
FC Winterthur
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Étoile Carouge
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
FC WIL 1900
0.83
Rapperswil
0.67
Stade Nyonnais
0.33
Rapperswil is 0.67 points worse than FC Aarau in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Winterthur
2.00
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.83
SC Kriens
1.67
Yverdon Sport
1.67
FC WIL 1900
1.50
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
Rapperswil
1.33
FC Aarau
1.33
Étoile Carouge
1.00
Stade Nyonnais
0.67
Rapperswil and FC Aarau are level in goals scored per game (both 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
0.50
SC Kriens
1.00
Yverdon Sport
1.00
Étoile Carouge
1.00
FC Winterthur
1.17
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.50
FC Aarau
1.67
Stade Nyonnais
1.83
Rapperswil
2.17
FC WIL 1900
2.67
Rapperswil is 0.50 goals worse than FC Aarau in terms of goals conceded per game (2.17 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rapperswil or Draw
48.4%
Avg Implied -
26%
22%
52%
covers Rapperswil + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rapperswil or FC Aarau
78.0%
Avg Implied -
26%
22%
52%
covers Rapperswil + FC Aarau
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Aarau
73.7%
Avg Implied -
26%
22%
52%
covers Draw + FC Aarau
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rapperswil over/under 0.5
Over
78.8%
Under
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapperswil over/under 1.5
Over
46.0%
Under
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapperswil over/under 2.5
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapperswil over/under 3.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5
Over
88.9%
Under
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5
Over
64.5%
Under
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5
Over
37.7%
Under
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 3.5
Over
18.0%
Under
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rapperswil, so a minus line means Rapperswil give that many goals of a start and FC Aarau receive them. At -1, Rapperswil must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rapperswil win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rapperswil)
Rapperswil -2
4.7%
Draw -2
7.8%
FC Aarau +2
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Rapperswil)
Rapperswil -1
12.5%
Draw -1
13.8%
FC Aarau +1
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Rapperswil)
Rapperswil +1
48.4%
Draw +1
19.9%
FC Aarau -1
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Rapperswil)
Rapperswil +2
68.3%
Draw +2
15.6%
FC Aarau -2
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rapperswil
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
1.07
0.93
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.20
2.00
2.50
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.72
0.92
0.69
0.67
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Aarau
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.70
1.00
0.43
1.00
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.89
0.74
0.75
0.38
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.64
1.33
0.50
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapperswil) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rapperswil over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapperswil over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapperswil over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rapperswil
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.07
0.53
1.07
0.93
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.40
0.50
2.00
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.80
0.54
0.92
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Aarau
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
1.07
0.64
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.79
0.88
0.75
0.73
0.82
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.55
1.33
0.50
1.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapperswil) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rapperswil over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapperswil over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapperswil over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (25)
€6m
SL (24)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
RAP (24)
€4m
ÉC (23)
€4m
SN (21)
€3m
SK (16)
€3m
Rapperswil's squad is €1m less valuable than FC Aarau's (€4m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FW (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
ÉC (6)
€1m
RAP (8)
€1m
SK (5)
€0m
Rapperswil and FC Aarau have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FW (7)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
RAP (6)
€2m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
ÉC (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SK (3)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
Rapperswil and FC Aarau have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
FW (9)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
ÉC (12)
€2m
SK (8)
€2m
RAP (10)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
Rapperswil's defence is €1m less valuable than FC Aarau's (€2m vs €3m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Yverdon Sport
SC Kriens
FC Winterthur
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Étoile Carouge
FC WIL 1900
Stade Nyonnais