This match between Rapperswil and FC WIL 1900 is finely balanced, with Rapperswil struggling in their recent form, coming off a defeat to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, while FC WIL 1900 has also been on a rough patch, following two straight defeats. The model's selection for the match result is an away win for FC WIL 1900, with a 38% chance of success. Rapperswil, however, has a 35% chance of taking home the win, and a 27% chance of the match ending in a draw.
The expected total number of goals in this match is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.7% probability. Rapperswil has been scoring an average of 1.62 goals at home, while conceding 1.38 goals, with their opponents being of similar strength. FC WIL 1900, on the other hand, has been scoring 1.09 goals away, while conceding 1.18 goals, also against similar opponents.
The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5, with a 79.6% chance of success. This pick is likely driven by the expected high-scoring nature of the match.
Results analysis
The win extends Rapperswil's recent struggles, as they suffered their second consecutive loss before this match, following a 0-2 defeat to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. Meanwhile, FC WIL 1900 was looking to bounce back from two straight defeats, including a 0-5 loss to FC Winterthur. The model's selection, FC WIL 1900 to win away, proved correct, as they secured a 4-5 victory. The actual result was a 4-5 away win. The model's pick was the favourite, with a 38% chance of winning pre-match. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a 79.6% probability, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a 24% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rapperswil win✗ Miss
34.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 win✓ Hit
38.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rapperswil
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.80
1.50
1.79
1.62
1.81
vs Stronger (10)
1.30
2.90
1.25
3.25
1.33
2.67
vs Similar (20)
1.70
1.25
1.60
1.20
1.80
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC WIL 1900) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC WIL 1900
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.40
1.20
1.53
1.07
1.27
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.83
1.33
2.33
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.45
1.30
1.60
1.20
1.30
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapperswil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.9%
Under 3.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.6%
No
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
7.1%
0-0
6.7%
1-0
6.6%
0-2
6.1%
2-2
6.1%
Rapperswil goals ↓
FC WIL 1900 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
7.1%
6.1%
3.0%
1.1%
1
6.6%
13%
8.6%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.1%
6.1%
3.0%
1.1%
3
2.6%
3.8%
2.8%
1.4%
0.5%
4
0.9%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rapperswil goals (down), columns = FC WIL 1900 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Aarau
2.22
Yverdon Sport
1.86
FC Winterthur
1.51
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.39
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
SC Kriens
1.24
Rapperswil
1.22
FC WIL 1900
1.11
Étoile Carouge
1.11
Stade Nyonnais
0.78
Rapperswil is 0.11 points better than FC WIL 1900 in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Aarau
2.14
Yverdon Sport
2.08
FC Winterthur
1.66
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
Rapperswil
1.44
SC Kriens
1.36
Étoile Carouge
1.28
FC WIL 1900
1.08
Stade Nyonnais
0.92
Rapperswil is 0.36 goals better than FC WIL 1900 in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Aarau
1.31
Yverdon Sport
1.33
FC Winterthur
1.41
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.42
Étoile Carouge
1.50
FC WIL 1900
1.53
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.56
Stade Nyonnais
1.67
SC Kriens
1.72
Rapperswil
1.72
Rapperswil is 0.19 goals worse than FC WIL 1900 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rapperswil
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
1.07
0.79
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.25
0.67
0.83
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.65
1.10
0.60
0.80
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC WIL 1900) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC WIL 1900
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.67
0.60
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
1.33
0.67
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.70
0.50
0.70
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Rapperswil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rapperswil over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapperswil over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rapperswil over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Switzerland: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Neuchatel Xamax FC
FC Winterthur
Yverdon Sport
Étoile Carouge
FC Aarau
SC Kriens
Stade Nyonnais