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Rathfriland vs Institute Prediction & Stats

Date: 05/09/2026
Time: 14:00
Rathfriland
Rathfriland
Vs
29%
25%
46%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Institute
Institute
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Rathfriland’s recent five matches have seen four straight defeats, a 0-4 loss to Newington Youth, while Institute, after a defeat to Queen’s University, has returned to form with two wins in its last five. The model favours an away win, with a 46 % chance, a 29 % chance for Rathfriland to win and a 25 % chance of a draw. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a high-scoring game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.2 % probability. Rathfriland averages one goal scored and two conceded at home against stronger opponents, whereas Institute averages 2.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded on the road against weaker teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.2 %), Under 6.5 (95.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.4 %), Under 5.5 (89.2 %), Away under 3.5 goals (89.0 %), Away +2 handicap (86.4 %), Over 1.5 (84.2 %) and Away over 0.5 goals (83.6 %).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Rathfriland win
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Institute win
45.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

RathfrilandRathfriland

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L24L12L04L13LH·LOU08/08A·ANN11/08H·NEW15/08A·NEW22/08A·GLE28/08
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
3.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.003.201.002.501.003.67
vs Stronger (5)1.003.201.002.501.003.67
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W00D30W31W41W10W12L00D14L13LA·DUN28/03H·WAR04/04H·BAL11/04H·ARD18/04A·ARM25/04A·STR07/08H·BAL11/08H·LOU15/08A·QUE22/08H·NEW29/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.331.671.201.531.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.431.501.570.861.292.14
vs Weaker (16)1.751.191.751.501.750.88
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Rathfriland) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.2%
Under 1.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.5%
Under 2.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.3%
Under 3.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.4%
No
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
7.2%
2-2
6.5%
0-2
6.5%
0-1
6.2%
1-3
5.5%
0-0
5.0%
Rathfriland goals ↓
Institute goals →
01234
05.0%6.2%6.5%3.9%1.8%
14.6%11%9.2%5.5%2.5%
24.0%7.2%6.5%3.9%1.8%
31.9%3.4%3.1%1.9%0.8%
40.7%1.2%1.1%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rathfriland goals (down), columns = Institute goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Rathfriland is 0.80 points worse than Institute in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 0.80).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Rathfriland is 0.20 goals better than Institute in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Rathfriland is 1.40 goals worse than Institute in terms of goals conceded per game (3.20 vs 1.80).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rathfriland or Draw
54.2%
Avg Implied -
29%
25%
46%
covers Rathfriland + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland or Institute
75.1%
Avg Implied -
29%
25%
46%
covers Rathfriland + Institute
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Institute
70.7%
Avg Implied -
29%
25%
46%
covers Draw + Institute
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rathfriland over/under 0.5
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 1.5
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 2.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 0.5
Over
83.6%
Under
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5
Over
53.9%
Under
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5
Over
27.1%
Under
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 3.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Rathfriland, so a minus line means Rathfriland give that many goals of a start and Institute receive them. At -1, Rathfriland must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rathfriland win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rathfriland)
Rathfriland -2
4.9%
Draw -2
8.7%
Institute +2
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Rathfriland)
Rathfriland -1
13.6%
Draw -1
15.7%
Institute +1
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Rathfriland)
Rathfriland +1
54.2%
Draw +1
20.3%
Institute -1
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Rathfriland)
Rathfriland +2
74.5%
Draw +2
14.1%
Institute -2
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

RathfrilandRathfriland

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L03L02L03L02LH·LOU08/08A·ANN11/08H·NEW15/08A·NEW22/08A·GLE28/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.002.200.001.500.002.67
vs Stronger (5)0.002.200.001.500.002.67
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

InstituteInstitute

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D30W10W10W10W00D00D11D01LA·DUN28/03H·WAR04/04H·BAL11/04H·ARD18/04A·ARM25/04A·STR07/08H·BAL11/08H·LOU15/08A·QUE22/08H·NEW29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.470.800.400.530.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.570.570.430.140.711.00
vs Weaker (16)0.750.381.120.620.380.12
Clean sheet %67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Rathfriland) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.4%
Under 0.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.5%
Under 1.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.5%
Under 2.5
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rathfriland over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.7%
Under
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.1%
Under
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.7%
Under
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

RathfrilandRathfriland

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L21W10W01L11DH·LOU08/08A·ANN11/08H·NEW15/08A·NEW22/08A·GLE28/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Stronger (5)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Institute) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

InstituteInstitute

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D00D21W31W00D12L00D03L12LA·DUN28/03H·WAR04/04H·BAL11/04H·ARD18/04A·ARM25/04A·STR07/08H·BAL11/08H·LOU15/08A·QUE22/08H·NEW29/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.870.870.801.000.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.860.931.140.710.571.14
vs Weaker (16)1.000.810.620.881.380.75
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Rathfriland) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.5%
Under 0.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.6%
Under 1.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.7%
Under 2.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rathfriland over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.0%
Under
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 0.5 2H
Over
69.6%
Under
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 1.5 2H
Over
31.2%
Under
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Institute over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals98.9%-------
Under 7.598.2%-------
Home under 2.5 2H goals98.1%-------
Under 6.595.4%-------
Away under 2.5 HT goals94.5%-------
Home under 3.5 goals94.4%-------
Home under 1.5 HT goals93.1%-------
Away under 2.5 2H goals91.6%-------
Home under 1.5 2H goals89.6%-------
Under 5.589.2%-------
Away under 3.5 goals89.0%-------
Away +2 handicap86.4%-------
Under 2.5 HT goals85.5%-------
Over 1.584.2%-------
Away over 0.5 goals83.6%-------
Home under 2.5 goals82.9%-------
Over 0.5 2H goals80.5%-------
Away under 1.5 HT goals78.3%-------
Under 4.577.6%-------
Home over 0.5 goals75.8%-------
Over 0.5 HT goals75.4%-------
Under 2.5 2H goals75.3%-------
Home or Away75.1%-------
Home +2 handicap74.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals72.9%-------
Draw or Away70.7%-------
Away +1 handicap70.7%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
RAT wins
0
Draws
0
INS wins

Head-to-head

Rathfriland vs Institute · H/A from RAT
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

RathfrilandRathfriland

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26AGlenavon FC Vs RAT3-1
22/08/26ANewington Youth Vs RAT4-0
15/08/26HRAT Vs Newry City AFC1-2
11/08/26AAnnagh United Vs RAT4-2
08/08/26HRAT Vs Loughgall1-3

InstituteInstitute

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HINS Vs Newry City AFC1-3
22/08/26AQueen's University Vs INS4-1
15/08/26HINS Vs Loughgall0-0
11/08/26HINS Vs Ballinamallard United1-2
07/08/26AStrabane Athletic Vs INS0-1
25/04/26AArmagh City Vs INS1-4
18/04/26HINS Vs Ards3-1
11/04/26HINS Vs Ballinamallard United3-0
04/04/26HINS Vs Warrenpoint Town0-0
28/03/26ADundela Vs INS1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Rathfriland
Rathfriland
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 0 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.00
HomeLL0.00
AwayLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %0%0%0%
AVG goals4.203.504.67
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %100%100%100%
Over 3.5 %80%50%100%
Scored1.001.001.00
Conceded3.202.503.67
BTTS80%100%67%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Institute
Institute
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLL1.46
HomeWWLDL1.48
AwayWWWWL1.43
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%41%43%
AVG goals3.043.112.96
Over 1.5 %74%70%78%
Over 2.5 %64%63%65%
Over 3.5 %38%37%39%
Scored1.581.631.52
Conceded1.461.481.43
BTTS56%56%57%
Clean Sheet28%33%22%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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