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Rathfriland vs Warrenpoint Town Prediction & Stats

Date: 25/09/2026
Time: 18:45
Rathfriland
Rathfriland
Vs
45%
26%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Rathfriland are tipped to win the match, with a 46% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw and a 27% chance of an away victory. The model expects a modest 2.8-goal encounter, most likely ending 1-1 with a 12.7% probability. Rathfriland’s home form shows they average 1.0 goal scored and 3.0 conceded against similarly ranked sides, while Warrenpoint Town, playing away, have been prolific, scoring 2.4 and conceding only 0.4 in recent matches versus similar opposition. The preview highlights a strong home win probability, the expected total goals, and the single most probable scoreline. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Under 5.5 (93.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.8%), Home +2 handicap (88.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.2%) and Under 4.5 (84.6%). Rathfriland’s recent form, after four straight defeats, contrasts with Warrenpoint’s fresh win, setting the stage for a cautious but likely home victory.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Rathfriland win
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town win
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

RathfrilandRathfriland

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L24L12L04L13LH·LOU08/08A·ANN11/08H·NEW15/08A·NEW22/08A·GLE28/08
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
3.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.003.201.002.501.003.67
vs Stronger (5)1.003.201.002.501.003.67
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D02L10W01L03L20W13L30W33DH·ARM28/03A·INS04/04A·DUN11/04A·BAL18/04H·ARD25/04A·H&W08/08H·ARM11/08H·ARD15/08A·NEW21/08A·LOU28/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.331.071.291.251.38
vs Stronger (23)0.871.701.091.640.671.75
vs Similar (7)2.140.141.000.003.000.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Rathfriland) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.7%
Under 2.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.3%
Under 3.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.7%
No
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
7.3%
1-2
7.3%
2-0
7.1%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
6.1%
0-1
5.4%
Rathfriland goals ↓
Warrenpoint Town goals →
01234
06.1%5.4%4.3%1.9%0.6%
17.3%12%7.3%3.2%1.0%
27.1%9.3%6.1%2.7%0.9%
34.0%5.2%3.4%1.5%0.5%
41.7%2.2%1.4%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rathfriland goals (down), columns = Warrenpoint Town goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Rathfriland is 1.40 points worse than Warrenpoint Town in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 1.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Rathfriland is 0.80 goals worse than Warrenpoint Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Rathfriland is 1.40 goals worse than Warrenpoint Town in terms of goals conceded per game (3.20 vs 1.80).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rathfriland or Draw
71.1%
Avg Implied -
45%
26%
29%
covers Rathfriland + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland or Warrenpoint Town
74.0%
Avg Implied -
45%
26%
29%
covers Rathfriland + Warrenpoint Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Warrenpoint Town
54.9%
Avg Implied -
45%
26%
29%
covers Draw + Warrenpoint Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rathfriland over/under 0.5
Over
81.5%
Under
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 1.5
Over
50.3%
Under
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 2.5
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 3.5
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5
Over
73.2%
Under
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5
Over
37.9%
Under
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Rathfriland, so a minus line means Rathfriland give that many goals of a start and Warrenpoint Town receive them. At -1, Rathfriland must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rathfriland win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rathfriland)
Rathfriland -2
10.4%
Draw -2
14.0%
Warrenpoint Town +2
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Rathfriland)
Rathfriland -1
24.4%
Draw -1
20.7%
Warrenpoint Town +1
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Rathfriland)
Rathfriland +1
71.1%
Draw +1
15.9%
Warrenpoint Town -1
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Rathfriland)
Rathfriland +2
87.1%
Draw +2
8.5%
Warrenpoint Town -2
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

RathfrilandRathfriland

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L03L02L03L02LH·LOU08/08A·ANN11/08H·NEW15/08A·NEW22/08A·GLE28/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.002.200.001.500.002.67
vs Stronger (5)0.002.200.001.500.002.67
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D02L10W01L01L10W01L10W11DH·ARM28/03A·INS04/04A·DUN11/04A·BAL18/04H·ARD25/04A·H&W08/08H·ARM11/08H·ARD15/08A·NEW21/08A·LOU28/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.570.570.500.500.62
vs Stronger (23)0.350.700.550.640.170.75
vs Similar (7)1.140.140.670.001.500.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Rathfriland) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rathfriland over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

RathfrilandRathfriland

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L21W10W01L11DH·LOU08/08A·ANN11/08H·NEW15/08A·NEW22/08A·GLE28/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Stronger (5)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Warrenpoint Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D00D00D02L10W12L20W22DH·ARM28/03A·INS04/04A·DUN11/04A·BAL18/04H·ARD25/04A·H&W08/08H·ARM11/08H·ARD15/08A·NEW21/08A·LOU28/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.770.500.790.750.75
vs Stronger (23)0.521.000.551.000.501.00
vs Similar (7)1.000.000.330.001.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Rathfriland) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rathfriland over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rathfriland over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warrenpoint Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.8%-------
Under 6.596.6%-------
Away under 3.5 goals95.5%-------
Under 5.591.6%-------
Home under 3.5 goals90.9%-------
Home +2 handicap87.1%-------
Away under 2.5 goals85.3%-------
Under 4.581.5%-------
Home over 0.5 goals81.5%-------
Over 1.581.2%-------
Home under 2.5 goals76.1%-------
Away +2 handicap75.6%-------
Home or Away74.0%-------
Away over 0.5 goals73.2%-------
Home or Draw71.1%-------
Home +1 handicap71.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
RAT wins
0
Draws
0
WT wins

Head-to-head

Rathfriland vs Warrenpoint Town · H/A from RAT
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

RathfrilandRathfriland

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26AGlenavon FC Vs RAT3-1
22/08/26ANewington Youth Vs RAT4-0
15/08/26HRAT Vs Newry City AFC1-2
11/08/26AAnnagh United Vs RAT4-2
08/08/26HRAT Vs Loughgall1-3

Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26ALoughgall Vs WT3-3
21/08/26ANewry City AFC Vs WT0-3
15/08/26HWT Vs Ards1-3
11/08/26HWT Vs Armagh City2-0
08/08/26AH&W Welders Vs WT3-0
25/04/26HWT Vs Ards0-1
18/04/26ABallinamallard United Vs WT0-1
11/04/26ADundela Vs WT2-0
04/04/26AInstitute Vs WT0-0
28/03/26HWT Vs Armagh City0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Rathfriland
Rathfriland
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 0 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.00
HomeLL0.00
AwayLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %0%0%0%
AVG goals4.203.504.67
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %100%100%100%
Over 3.5 %80%50%100%
Scored1.001.001.00
Conceded3.202.503.67
BTTS80%100%67%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Warrenpoint Town
Warrenpoint Town
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWD1.18
HomeLDLWL1.46
AwayLWLWD0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%42%23%
AVG goals2.702.792.62
Over 1.5 %66%67%65%
Over 2.5 %46%46%46%
Over 3.5 %28%29%27%
Scored1.301.501.12
Conceded1.401.291.50
BTTS40%50%31%
Clean Sheet26%29%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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