The encounter between Raufoss and Bryne is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win at 36%. A draw is not far behind at 31%, and Bryne’s chance of victory sits at 33%. The average goal count is 2.3, so a 2-goal total is most likely, and the single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.5% chance. Raufoss, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Bryne, on the road to a weaker side, nets 3.67 and concedes only 0.67 on average. The model’s selection includes Under 3.5 goals with a 79% probability, a hit result. The match’s balance is highlighted by the recent form: Raufoss has suffered five straight defeats, last losing 0-3 to Sandnes ULF, whereas Bryne, after a loss, has won four of five, most recently 0-2 at Haugesund. The expected total of 2.3 goals and the 1-1 scoreline underline the fine equilibrium between the sides.
Results analysis
The upset was immediate: Raufoss, the pre-match favourite with a 36% chance of triumph, fell to a 1-0 defeat, leaving the model’s call wrong. The match, played at home for Raufoss, ended in an away win for Bryne, who had been on a five-game winning streak after a recent loss. The model had predicted a Home win with 36% probability, but the result was the opposite. Its single suggested pick, Under 3.5 goals at 79%, hit as the match produced just one goal. The final score of 0-1 confirmed Bryne’s victory and the model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Raufoss win✗ Miss
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bryne win✓ Hit
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Raufoss
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.30
1.07
1.00
1.47
1.60
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
1.64
1.33
1.50
1.20
1.80
vs Similar (18)
0.89
1.17
0.89
0.67
0.89
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
8.00
0.00
-
-
8.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Bryne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bryne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.00
1.64
0.79
1.62
1.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.32
1.08
1.50
0.83
1.15
1.31
vs Weaker (5)
3.20
0.60
2.50
0.50
3.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.3%
Under 1.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.6%
Under 2.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.0%
Under 3.5
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.0%
No
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
10.9%
1-0
10.2%
0-1 ✓
9.6%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
6.2%
Raufoss goals ↓
Bryne goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.6%
6.2%
2.4%
0.7%
1
10%
14%
7.5%
2.9%
0.8%
2
7.0%
7.9%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.8%
3.2%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raufoss goals (down), columns = Bryne goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Valerenga
2.30
Bryne
1.93
Moss
1.81
Lyn
1.52
Egersund
1.52
Kongsvinger
1.45
Stabaek
1.40
Raufoss
1.37
Aalesund
1.33
Ranheim
1.30
Asane
1.23
Start
1.17
Sogndal
1.13
Mjondalen
1.07
Levanger
0.97
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss is 0.57 points worse than Bryne in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.93).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Valerenga
2.73
Stabaek
1.90
Egersund
1.87
Lyn
1.84
Moss
1.84
Bryne
1.67
Ranheim
1.60
Kongsvinger
1.58
Levanger
1.57
Asane
1.53
Start
1.50
Aalesund
1.50
Mjondalen
1.27
Sogndal
1.13
Raufoss
1.13
Sandnes ULF
0.87
Raufoss is 0.53 goals worse than Bryne in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
0.97
Valerenga
1.03
Raufoss
1.17
Lyn
1.32
Sogndal
1.33
Moss
1.39
Ranheim
1.53
Aalesund
1.63
Kongsvinger
1.67
Mjondalen
1.67
Levanger
1.70
Asane
1.73
Egersund
1.87
Start
1.90
Stabaek
1.97
Sandnes ULF
2.67
Raufoss is 0.20 goals worse than Bryne in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Raufoss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.60
0.20
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.45
0.83
0.33
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (18)
0.33
0.56
0.44
0.11
0.22
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Bryne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bryne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.93
0.36
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.44
0.83
0.33
0.38
0.54
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.60
1.50
0.50
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
63% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bryne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bryne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bryne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Raufoss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.47
0.80
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.18
0.50
1.17
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.61
0.44
0.56
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Bryne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bryne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
0.71
0.43
0.88
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.76
0.67
0.50
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bryne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bryne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bryne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bryne · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Magnus Grødem38%
Duarte Moreira25%
Sanel Bojadžić23%
Heine Asen Larsen14%
Axel Kryger12%
Alfred Scriven10%
Lasse Qvigstad9%
Nicklas Strunck7%
Mats Selmer Thornes7%
Kristian Skurve Haland6%
Jacob Haahr3%
Eirik Franke Saunes3%
Jon-Helge Tveita0%
Rasmus Thellufsen0%
Jan de Boer0%
Andreas Skovgaard0%
Dadi Dodou Gaye0%
Christian Landu-Landu0%
Robert Undheim0%
Sondre Norheim0%
Jens Berland Husebø0%
Luis Görlich0%
Lars Erik Sødal0%
Jesper Gregersen0%
Sjur Torgersen Jonassen0%
Patrick Wik0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luis Görlich38%
Andreas Skovgaard27%
Lars Erik Sødal26%
Magnus Grødem25%
Axel Kryger24%
Alfred Scriven23%
Heine Asen Larsen18%
Nicklas Strunck18%
Sanel Bojadžić15%
Patrick Wik14%
Jacob Haahr10%
Jens Berland Husebø10%
Duarte Moreira9%
Jesper Gregersen9%
Mats Selmer Thornes7%
Kristian Skurve Haland6%
Jon-Helge Tveita6%
Christian Landu-Landu5%
Lasse Qvigstad4%
Eirik Franke Saunes3%
Jan de Boer3%
Rasmus Thellufsen0%
Dadi Dodou Gaye0%
Robert Undheim0%
Sondre Norheim0%
Sjur Torgersen Jonassen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Duarte Moreira22%
Alfred Scriven13%
Kristian Skurve Haland12%
Eirik Franke Saunes10%
Andreas Skovgaard9%
Sanel Bojadžić8%
Jon-Helge Tveita6%
Heine Asen Larsen5%
Nicklas Strunck4%
Jacob Haahr0%
Rasmus Thellufsen0%
Jan de Boer0%
Magnus Grødem0%
Dadi Dodou Gaye0%
Axel Kryger0%
Christian Landu-Landu0%
Robert Undheim0%
Sondre Norheim0%
Jens Berland Husebø0%
Luis Görlich0%
Mats Selmer Thornes0%
Lars Erik Sødal0%
Lasse Qvigstad0%
Jesper Gregersen0%
Sjur Torgersen Jonassen0%
Patrick Wik0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Duarte Moreira22%
Heine Asen Larsen18%
Magnus Grødem12%
Sanel Bojadžić12%
Alfred Scriven10%
Eirik Franke Saunes7%
Jacob Haahr0%
Jon-Helge Tveita0%
Rasmus Thellufsen0%
Nicklas Strunck0%
Jan de Boer0%
Andreas Skovgaard0%
Dadi Dodou Gaye0%
Axel Kryger0%
Christian Landu-Landu0%
Robert Undheim0%
Sondre Norheim0%
Jens Berland Husebø0%
Luis Görlich0%
Mats Selmer Thornes0%
Lars Erik Sødal0%
Lasse Qvigstad0%
Jesper Gregersen0%
Sjur Torgersen Jonassen0%
Kristian Skurve Haland0%
Patrick Wik0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (22)
€16m
AAL (25)
€13m
STA (24)
€9m
STA (25)
€9m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
Raufoss's squad is €4m less valuable than Bryne's (€2m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (7)
€6m
STA (9)
€5m
AAL (7)
€5m
KON (10)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Raufoss's attack is €2m less valuable than Bryne's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (6)
€5m
AAL (8)
€4m
STA (8)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
Raufoss and Bryne have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (9)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
Raufoss's defence is €1m less valuable than Bryne's (€1m vs €2m).
Norway: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →