Raufoss are favoured to win, with a 51% chance of triumph, a 26% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of a Moss victory. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals, with the most likely total being two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12% probability. Raufoss, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages one goal scored and one conceded. Moss, on the road against a comparable side, averages 1.22 goals scored and 2.22 conceded. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5, which has an 80.1% probability of occurring. The home win probability is 51%, the draw probability is 26%, and the away win probability is 23%. The only suggested pick is Over 1.5 with an 80.1% chance.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Raufoss, failed to deliver as the match finished 1-1, a draw that extended their five-match losing streak at home. The model had picked a home win with a 51% probability, but the call was wrong. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.1% chance, and it hit as the game saw two goals. The expected total of 2.9 was not met, and the most likely scoreline of 1-1, at 12%, came through. Moss, still struggling away with a 1-2 loss to Strommen, managed a point, while Raufoss left the field with a win-less run.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Raufoss win✗ Miss
51.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Moss win✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Raufoss
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.60
1.43
1.29
0.88
1.88
vs Stronger (13)
1.62
1.92
1.75
1.50
1.40
2.60
vs Similar (17)
0.76
1.35
1.00
1.00
0.64
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moss
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.14
1.48
1.09
0.91
1.20
2.10
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.15
1.50
1.09
0.91
1.22
2.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
19% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.1%
Under 2.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 3.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.9%
No
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.0%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.5%
1-0
8.4%
0-0
6.4%
1-2
6.3%
3-1
5.8%
2-2
5.6%
Raufoss goals ↓
Moss goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
5.0%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
1
8.4%
12%
6.3%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.5%
9.7%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.0%
5.8%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.2%
2.6%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raufoss goals (down), columns = Moss goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fredrikstad
2.13
KFUM Oslo
1.93
Kristiansund BK
1.69
Kongsvinger
1.68
Bryne
1.50
Start
1.48
Sogndal
1.43
Ranheim
1.33
Moss
1.27
Raufoss
1.27
Asane
1.23
Mjondalen
1.23
Sandnes ULF
1.23
hodd
1.10
jerv
1.03
Skeid
0.47
Raufoss and Moss are level in average points per game (both 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kristiansund BK
1.91
Kongsvinger
1.77
KFUM Oslo
1.70
Fredrikstad
1.67
Start
1.58
Sogndal
1.50
Sandnes ULF
1.40
Bryne
1.38
Asane
1.37
jerv
1.33
Mjondalen
1.30
Moss
1.23
Ranheim
1.20
Raufoss
1.17
hodd
0.97
Skeid
0.80
Raufoss is 0.07 goals worse than Moss in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.23).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fredrikstad
0.77
KFUM Oslo
1.03
Bryne
1.16
Raufoss
1.20
Start
1.26
hodd
1.27
Kristiansund BK
1.28
Moss
1.33
Kongsvinger
1.39
Mjondalen
1.40
Asane
1.47
Sogndal
1.50
Sandnes ULF
1.50
Ranheim
1.77
jerv
1.97
Skeid
2.07
Raufoss is 0.13 goals better than Moss in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Raufoss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.71
0.14
0.12
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
0.54
0.75
0.12
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (17)
0.29
0.65
0.67
0.17
0.09
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.36
0.64
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.55
0.36
0.64
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
48% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Raufoss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.00
0.71
1.14
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
1.38
1.00
1.38
1.20
1.40
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.71
0.33
0.83
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
0.90
0.73
0.27
0.70
1.60
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.95
0.73
0.27
0.67
1.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRE (25)
€15m
KB (21)
€13m
STA (25)
€9m
KO (24)
€8m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
Raufoss's squad is €2m less valuable than Moss's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KB (6)
€5m
FRE (5)
€5m
KON (10)
€3m
KO (8)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Raufoss's attack is €1m less valuable than Moss's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KB (6)
€4m
STA (8)
€3m
FRE (4)
€3m
KO (5)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
Raufoss and Moss have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRE (16)
€8m
KO (11)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
KB (9)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
Raufoss and Moss have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Norway: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →