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Raufoss vs Moss Result & Analysis

Date: 01/04/2025
Time: 17:00
Final 3-2
Raufoss
Raufoss
Vs
40%
29%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Moss
Moss
Norway: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Raufoss and Moss face each other with the balance razor-thin, the model favouring a home win but leaving no clear victor. The odds are 40% for Raufoss, 29% for a draw, and 31% for Moss, so the predicted result is a 40% chance of a home victory. The match is expected to see 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.9% probability. Raufoss, at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages one goal scored and 1.29 conceded; Moss, on the road, averages 1.5 scored and 1.43 conceded. Suggested selections include Under 3.5 goals at 74.8% and Over 1.5 goals at 73.4%. The match remains a tight contest, with the home side’s recent five-match losing streak and the away side’s last defeat adding layers of uncertainty.

Results analysis

Raufoss, after a five-match losing streak, finally broke their run with a 3-2 victory over Moss, extending their winless drought into a win. The match finished well above the model’s expected total of 2.5 goals. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 40% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selections saw Under 3.5 miss, while Over 1.5 hit. Under 3.5 had a 74.8% chance, and Over 1.5 a 73.4% chance. The final score of 3-2 confirmed the home side’s triumph.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Raufoss win✓ Hit
39.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Moss win✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

RaufossRaufoss

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W21W10W11D21W11D01L11D23L01LH·SOG02/09A·STA16/09A·LEV21/09H·RAN25/09A·LYN29/09H·SAN02/10A·BRY21/10H·KON26/10A·MOS02/11H·MJO09/11
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.171.131.201.401.13
vs Stronger (16)1.441.191.251.121.621.25
vs Similar (14)1.071.141.001.291.141.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MossMoss

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-661W03L11D51W11D32W21W32W00D02LH·SAN25/09A·BRY28/09H·ASA06/10H·LEV21/10A·STA26/10H·RAU02/11A·LYN09/11H·KON01/12H·HAU05/12A·HAU08/12← Eliteserien1. Division →
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.332.071.001.471.67
vs Stronger (2)0.503.500.002.001.005.00
vs Similar (28)1.861.182.210.931.501.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.4%
Under 1.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.8%
Under 2.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.2%
Under 3.5
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.9%
No
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
9.4%
0-0
9.1%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.0%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.3%
0-2
5.5%
Raufoss goals ↓
Moss goals →
01234
09.1%8.0%5.5%2.2%0.6%
19.4%14%7.5%3.0%0.9%
27.3%8.6%5.1%2.0%0.6%
33.3%3.9%2.3%0.9%0.3%
41.1%1.3%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raufoss goals (down), columns = Moss goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lillestrom
2.67
Brattvåg
2.25
Start
1.83
Kongsvinger
1.77
Egersund
1.75
Aalesund
1.69
Lyn
1.57
Ranheim
1.55
Sogndal
1.43
hodd
1.10
ODD Ballklubb
1.10
Asane
1.03
Stabaek
1.03
Raufoss
1.00
Moss
0.97
Mjondalen
0.83
Skeid
0.50
Grorud
0.00
Raufoss is 0.03 points better than Moss in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.97).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Lillestrom
2.90
Kongsvinger
2.10
Start
1.93
Aalesund
1.91
Brattvåg
1.75
Egersund
1.72
Sogndal
1.63
Ranheim
1.61
Lyn
1.60
Stabaek
1.50
Raufoss
1.43
Moss
1.38
Asane
1.27
ODD Ballklubb
1.23
Mjondalen
1.20
Skeid
1.17
hodd
1.13
Grorud
0.50
Raufoss is 0.06 goals better than Moss in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 1.38).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Lillestrom
0.60
Brattvåg
1.00
Start
1.17
Lyn
1.23
Aalesund
1.25
Egersund
1.28
Kongsvinger
1.48
Sogndal
1.60
Ranheim
1.65
ODD Ballklubb
1.67
hodd
1.73
Asane
1.77
Stabaek
1.77
Raufoss
1.87
Grorud
2.00
Moss
2.12
Skeid
2.20
Mjondalen
2.37
Raufoss is 0.26 goals better than Moss in terms of goals conceded per game (1.87 vs 2.12).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

RaufossRaufoss

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W00D00D10W11D01L00D13L00DH·SOG02/09A·STA16/09A·LEV21/09H·RAN25/09A·LYN29/09H·SAN02/10A·BRY21/10H·KON26/10A·MOS02/11H·MJO09/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.500.600.530.600.47
vs Stronger (16)0.690.500.620.620.750.38
vs Similar (14)0.500.500.570.430.430.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MossMoss

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W02L10W21W01L31W00D10W00D02LH·SAN25/09A·BRY28/09H·ASA06/10H·LEV21/10A·STA26/10H·RAU02/11A·LYN09/11H·KON01/12H·HAU05/12A·HAU08/12← Eliteserien1. Division →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.570.800.400.470.73
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (28)0.680.540.860.360.500.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

RaufossRaufoss

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W11D10W11D11D00D00D11D10W01LH·SOG02/09A·STA16/09A·LEV21/09H·RAN25/09A·LYN29/09H·SAN02/10A·BRY21/10H·KON26/10A·MOS02/11H·MJO09/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.670.530.670.800.67
vs Stronger (16)0.750.690.620.500.880.88
vs Similar (14)0.570.640.430.860.710.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MossMoss

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W01L01L30W10W01L21W22D00D00DH·SAN25/09A·BRY28/09H·ASA06/10H·LEV21/10A·STA26/10H·RAU02/11A·LYN09/11H·KON01/12H·HAU05/12A·HAU08/12← Eliteserien1. Division →
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.771.270.601.000.93
vs Stronger (2)0.502.500.001.001.004.00
vs Similar (28)1.180.641.360.571.000.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.8%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.573.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIL (25)
€14m
AAL (25)
€13m
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
STA (25)
€9m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
Raufoss's squad is €2m less valuable than Moss's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIL (9)
€6m
STA (9)
€5m
AAL (7)
€5m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Raufoss's attack is €1m less valuable than Moss's (€0m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (8)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
STA (8)
€3m
OB (7)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
Raufoss and Moss have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIL (12)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
Raufoss and Moss have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
RAU wins
1
Draws
3
MOS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Raufoss vs Moss · H/A from RAU
DateH/AGameScore
02/11/24AMoss Vs RAU3-2
16/05/24HRAU Vs Moss0-2
03/09/23HRAU Vs Moss1-1
29/05/23AMoss Vs RAU1-0

RaufossRaufoss

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/24HRAU Vs Mjondalen0-1
02/11/24AMoss Vs RAU3-2
26/10/24HRAU Vs Kongsvinger1-1
21/10/24ABryne Vs RAU1-0
02/10/24HRAU Vs Sandnes ULF1-1
29/09/24ALyn Vs RAU1-2
25/09/24HRAU Vs Ranheim1-1
21/09/24ALevanger Vs RAU0-1
16/09/24AStabaek Vs RAU1-2
02/09/24HRAU Vs Sogndal4-1

MossMoss

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/12/24AHaugesund Vs MOS2-0
05/12/24HMOS Vs Haugesund0-0
01/12/24HMOS Vs Kongsvinger3-2
09/11/24ALyn Vs MOS1-2
02/11/24HMOS Vs Raufoss3-2
26/10/24AStart Vs MOS1-1
21/10/24HMOS Vs Levanger5-1
06/10/24HMOS Vs Asane1-1
28/09/24ABryne Vs MOS3-0
25/09/24HMOS Vs Sandnes ULF6-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Raufoss
Raufoss
Norway: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLL1.50
HomeWDDDL1.24
AwayWWWLL1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%32%52%
AVG goals2.622.402.84
Over 1.5 %74%68%80%
Over 2.5 %52%40%64%
Over 3.5 %22%20%24%
Scored1.421.201.64
Conceded1.201.201.20
BTTS58%52%64%
Clean Sheet18%20%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Moss
Moss
Norway: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDL1.52
HomeDWWWD2.04
AwayLLDWL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%62%27%
AVG goals2.943.002.88
Over 1.5 %76%71%81%
Over 2.5 %60%62%58%
Over 3.5 %28%29%27%
Scored1.602.001.23
Conceded1.341.001.65
BTTS52%46%58%
Clean Sheet26%38%15%
Corners7.005.009.00
Cards4.504.005.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LillestromLillestrom3080
83%
2.7
8718+69
3.5
87%
73%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6452.90.6
-
2EgersundEgersund3256
50%
1.8
5541+14
3.0
81%
47%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1121.71.3
-
3StartStart3055
53%
1.8
5835+23
3.1
90%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
2341.91.2
-
4KongsvingerKongsvinger3155
48%
1.8
6546+19
3.6
94%
74%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3122.11.5
-
5AalesundAalesund3254
44%
1.7
6140+21
3.2
81%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
5441.91.2
-
6RanheimRanheim3148
45%
1.5
5051-1
3.3
87%
71%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.61.6
-
7LynLyn3047
47%
1.6
4837+11
2.8
77%
60%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.61.2
-
8SogndalSogndal3043
40%
1.4
4948+1
3.2
87%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.61.6
-
9ODD BallklubbODD Ballklubb3033
27%
1.1
3750-13
2.9
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.21.7
-
10hoddhodd3033
27%
1.1
3452-18
2.9
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.7
-
11StabaekStabaek3031
23%
1.0
4553-8
3.3
90%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5231.51.8
-
12AsaneAsane3031
23%
1.0
3853-15
3.0
90%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1021.31.8
-
13MossMoss3231
25%
1.0
4468-24
3.5
97%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.42.1
-
14RaufossRaufoss3030
23%
1.0
4356-13
3.3
83%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.41.9
-
15MjondalenMjondalen3025
20%
0.8
3671-35
3.6
87%
67%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.4
-
16SkeidSkeid3015
7%
0.5
3566-31
3.4
93%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
17BrattvågBrattvåg49
75%
2.2
74+3
2.8
100%
75%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
18GrorudGrorud20
0%
0.0
14-3
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.0
-
Norway: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →

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