This opponent (Girona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Girona
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.43
0.75
1.56
1.21
1.29
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.00
0.67
2.33
2.00
1.50
vs Similar (19)
1.00
1.05
0.78
1.00
1.20
1.10
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
2.17
0.75
2.25
0.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.2%
Under 1.5
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.1%
Under 2.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.0%
Under 3.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.1%
No
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
7.8%
2-2
6.8%
0-2 ✓
5.6%
0-1
5.4%
1-3
5.1%
1-0
4.7%
Rayo Vallecano goals ↓
Girona goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
5.4%
5.6%
3.3%
1.4%
1
4.7%
11%
8.7%
5.1%
2.2%
2
4.4%
7.8%
6.8%
4.0%
1.7%
3
2.3%
4.0%
3.5%
2.0%
0.9%
4
0.9%
1.6%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rayo Vallecano goals (down), columns = Girona goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.29
Atletico Madrid
2.00
Real Madrid
1.79
Valencia
1.61
Getafe
1.55
Sevilla
1.55
Espanyol
1.39
Athletic Club
1.39
Real Sociedad
1.32
Alaves
1.32
Real Betis
1.32
Eibar
1.24
Leganes
1.18
Villarreal
1.16
Levante
1.16
Celta Vigo
1.08
Valladolid
1.08
Girona
0.97
Huesca
0.87
Rayo Vallecano
0.84
Rayo Vallecano is 0.13 points worse than Girona in terms of average points per game (0.84 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.37
Real Madrid
1.66
Sevilla
1.63
Levante
1.55
Atletico Madrid
1.45
Celta Vigo
1.39
Valencia
1.34
Villarreal
1.29
Espanyol
1.26
Getafe
1.26
Eibar
1.21
Real Sociedad
1.18
Real Betis
1.16
Huesca
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Athletic Club
1.08
Alaves
1.03
Girona
0.97
Leganes
0.97
Valladolid
0.84
Rayo Vallecano is 0.11 goals better than Girona in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Atletico Madrid
0.76
Getafe
0.92
Valencia
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Leganes
1.13
Athletic Club
1.18
Real Sociedad
1.21
Real Madrid
1.21
Sevilla
1.24
Espanyol
1.32
Eibar
1.32
Alaves
1.32
Valladolid
1.34
Real Betis
1.37
Villarreal
1.37
Girona
1.39
Celta Vigo
1.63
Huesca
1.71
Levante
1.74
Rayo Vallecano
1.84
Rayo Vallecano is 0.45 goals worse than Girona in terms of goals conceded per game (1.84 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rayo Vallecano
For 3.8 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.4 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 12.0 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Girona
For 4.1 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 14.2 · Total 29.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rayo Vallecano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.1
10.0
4.8
4.8
4.7
27.5
26.6
28.4
vs Stronger (8)
10.0
9.2
11.3
3.6
3.4
4.0
25.2
24.8
26.0
vs Similar (25)
9.6
8.9
10.2
5.3
5.5
5.1
28.3
26.5
29.9
vs Weaker (17)
9.4
9.4
9.3
4.6
4.8
4.4
27.4
27.9
27.0
% over line
52%
40%
64%
56%
60%
52%
80%
84%
76%
% under line
48%
60%
36%
44%
40%
48%
20%
16%
24%
This opponent (Girona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Girona
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.8
9.7
5.4
5.5
5.4
29.1
29.8
28.3
vs Stronger (8)
9.2
11.0
8.2
5.8
6.3
5.4
26.2
26.0
26.4
vs Similar (33)
9.1
7.9
10.3
5.3
4.9
5.7
30.7
31.9
29.4
vs Weaker (9)
10.0
10.6
9.2
5.6
6.8
4.0
25.8
25.2
26.5
% over line
46%
48%
44%
78%
80%
76%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
54%
52%
56%
22%
20%
24%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sevilla
10.8
Levante
10.4
Huesca
10.3
Villarreal
10.2
Valencia
10.1
Eibar
10.1
Valladolid
10.1
Real Madrid
9.8
Barcelona
9.8
Atletico Madrid
9.8
Real Sociedad
9.7
Rayo Vallecano
9.6
Alaves
9.6
Real Betis
9.6
Celta Vigo
9.5
Espanyol
9.3
Girona
9.3
Athletic Club
9.0
Getafe
8.8
Leganes
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Getafe
6.6
Levante
6.1
Valencia
6.0
Huesca
5.9
Athletic Club
5.7
Valladolid
5.7
Real Betis
5.6
Atletico Madrid
5.6
Leganes
5.6
Villarreal
5.5
Girona
5.4
Sevilla
5.4
Espanyol
5.3
Alaves
5.2
Celta Vigo
5.0
Barcelona
4.8
Rayo Vallecano
4.8
Real Madrid
4.7
Eibar
4.6
Real Sociedad
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
30.7
Girona
29.1
Valladolid
28.8
Espanyol
28.7
Alaves
28.5
Athletic Club
27.7
Huesca
27.5
Rayo Vallecano
27.5
Valencia
27.4
Sevilla
27.2
Atletico Madrid
27.0
Levante
26.9
Real Betis
26.6
Leganes
26.6
Villarreal
26.4
Real Sociedad
26.4
Real Madrid
26.0
Celta Vigo
25.6
Barcelona
25.1
Eibar
25.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.1%
Under 9.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
78.2%
Under 3.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
85.0%
Under 21.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rayo Vallecano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.80
0.87
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
0.62
1.00
0.60
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.88
0.62
1.25
0.22
0.56
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.00
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Girona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Girona
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.56
0.62
0.71
0.43
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.26
0.56
0.22
0.80
0.30
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
1.17
0.50
1.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Girona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Girona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Girona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rayo Vallecano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.93
0.67
1.07
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.00
0.40
1.20
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.88
1.00
1.00
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (5)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Girona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Girona
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.90
0.19
0.94
0.50
0.86
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
0.00
1.67
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (19)
0.32
0.79
0.22
0.78
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
1.00
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Girona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Girona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Girona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rayo Vallecano · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sergio Camello67%
Álvaro García33%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Unai López0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Fran Pérez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sergio Camello33%
Unai López33%
Álvaro García33%
Fran Pérez33%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Unai López33%
Álvaro García33%
Jorge de Frutos33%
Sergio Camello0%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Randy Nteka0%
Fran Pérez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergio Camello33%
Florian Lejeune33%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Unai López0%
Álvaro García0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Fran Pérez0%
Girona · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yáser Asprilla67%
Abel Ruíz33%
Fran Beltrán33%
Izan González33%
Paulo Gazzaniga0%
Bryan Gil0%
Álex Moreno0%
Alejandro Francés0%
Iván Morante0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bryan Gil33%
Fran Beltrán33%
Álex Moreno33%
Abel Ruíz0%
Paulo Gazzaniga0%
Alejandro Francés0%
Iván Morante0%
Yáser Asprilla0%
Izan González0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Abel Ruíz33%
Fran Beltrán33%
Paulo Gazzaniga0%
Bryan Gil0%
Álex Moreno0%
Alejandro Francés0%
Iván Morante0%
Yáser Asprilla0%
Izan González0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bryan Gil67%
Álex Moreno33%
Abel Ruíz0%
Paulo Gazzaniga0%
Fran Beltrán0%
Alejandro Francés0%
Iván Morante0%
Yáser Asprilla0%
Izan González0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GIR (28)
€114m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RV (23)
€76m
ALA (25)
€68m
LEG (26)
€30m
VAL (29)
€26m
EIB (24)
€15m
HUE (21)
€5m
Rayo Vallecano's squad is €38m less valuable than Girona's (€76m vs €114m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
GIR (12)
€64m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
RV (10)
€30m
ALA (8)
€24m
LEG (11)
€14m
VAL (11)
€10m
EIB (8)
€7m
HUE (9)
€2m
Rayo Vallecano's attack is €33m less valuable than Girona's (€30m vs €64m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GIR (7)
€28m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
RV (4)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
VAL (6)
€6m
EIB (6)
€3m
HUE (4)
€1m
Rayo Vallecano's midfield is €19m less valuable than Girona's (€9m vs €28m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
GET (13)
€26m
GIR (9)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
VAL (12)
€10m
LEG (10)
€8m
EIB (10)
€5m
HUE (8)
€2m
Rayo Vallecano's defence is €14m more valuable than Girona's (€36m vs €22m).
Spain: La Liga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
Valencia
Sevilla
Getafe
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad
Real Betis
Alaves
Eibar
Leganes
Villarreal
Levante
Celta Vigo
Valladolid
Huesca