Rayo Vallecano, fresh from a 2-5 loss to Barcelona, will face Racing Santander, who just edged Elche 3-2. The model favours a home win with a 44% chance, followed by a 28% draw and a 28% away win. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a 2-goal match, most likely ending 1-1 with a 13.3% probability. Rayo’s home form shows they score 1.12 and concede 0.88 against similar opposition, while Racing’s away record is 0.75 scored and 1.12 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.3% with a 7% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8% with a 5% edge), Under 6.5 (98.3% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.1% with a 7% edge), Under 5.5 (95.1% with a 3% edge), Away under 1.5 HT goals (94.9% with an 8% edge), and Away under 2.5 goals (94.4% with a 9% edge).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rayo Vallecano win
45.5%
Avg Implied 42.0% · @ 2.26
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.31
Dafabet
2.31
Betano
2.30
Pinnacle
2.29
Draw
27.9%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.38
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.52
Pinnacle
3.49
Marathonbet
3.46
Unibet
3.45
10Bet
3.40
Racing Santander win
26.6%
Avg Implied 30.0% · @ 3.16
Edge
-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.30
1xBet
3.28
Unibet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rayo Vallecano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.27
1.57
0.79
1.00
1.69
vs Stronger (12)
1.50
1.33
2.17
0.67
0.83
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.11
1.22
1.12
0.88
1.10
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Santander) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing Santander
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.47
2.50
1.56
1.21
1.36
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.67
1.33
1.67
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.94
1.18
3.00
1.22
0.75
1.12
vs Weaker (10)
2.00
1.90
2.25
2.25
1.83
1.67
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.2%
@ 1.25+0.4%
Under 1.5
24.8%
@ 3.74-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
BetVictor
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.94
Unibet
3.80
Betano
3.70
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.2%
@ 1.83-3.1%
Under 2.5
50.8%
@ 2.00+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.89
SBO
1.86
Betano
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.84
Under
1xBet
2.06
Pinnacle
2.06
10Bet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.3%
@ 2.98-4.3%
Under 3.5
72.7%
@ 1.38+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.10
Unibet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.09
Betano
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Under
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
10Bet
1.38
BetVictor
1.37
Both teams to score
Yes
53.8%
@ 1.63-3.5%
No
46.2%
@ 2.18+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.66
Betano
1.65
William Hil
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
No
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.20
10Bet
2.20
William Hil
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 6.18+6.1%
1-0
9.7%@ 8.27+4.2%
2-1
9.3%@ 8.37+3.9%
0-0
8.3%@ 10.26+4.0%
2-0
8.3%@ 11.16+4.3%
1-2
6.8%@ 10.26+2.4%
0-1
6.7%@ 10.04+2.3%
2-2
5.2%@ 11.80+1.4%
Rayo Vallecano goals ↓
Racing Santander goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
6.7%
4.4%
1.7%
0.5%
1
9.7%
13%
6.8%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.3%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.2%
4.7%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.6%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rayo Vallecano goals (down), columns = Racing Santander goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Rayo Vallecano is 0.22 points better than Racing Santander in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.10).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Rayo Vallecano is 0.00 goals better than Racing Santander in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Rayo Vallecano is 0.53 goals better than Racing Santander in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 1.69).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rayo Vallecano
For 4.0 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.5 · Against 10.6 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Racing Santander
For 5.9 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 15.5 · Total 30.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rayo Vallecano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.0
10.6
5.5
5.2
5.8
25.6
23.3
27.4
vs Stronger (15)
10.5
9.9
11.0
5.7
5.9
5.5
25.5
25.6
25.4
vs Similar (33)
10.8
11.6
10.2
5.7
4.9
6.4
25.5
22.3
28.3
vs Weaker (2)
14.0
-
14.0
1.5
-
1.5
29.0
-
29.0
% over line
67%
73%
63%
72%
73%
71%
82%
73%
89%
% under line
33%
27%
37%
28%
27%
29%
18%
27%
11%
This opponent (Racing Santander) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing Santander
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.8
9.7
6.1
5.3
6.8
26.8
25.9
27.8
vs Stronger (3)
13.7
13.7
-
6.0
6.0
-
24.0
24.0
-
vs Similar (26)
10.5
10.8
10.1
6.5
4.9
8.0
28.0
25.8
30.2
vs Weaker (21)
10.7
12.6
9.1
5.6
5.7
5.5
25.8
26.7
25.1
% over line
65%
76%
52%
84%
72%
96%
84%
84%
83%
% under line
35%
24%
48%
16%
28%
4%
16%
16%
17%
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Racing Santander
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Alaves
10.6
Real Sociedad
10.3
Levante
10.1
Valencia
9.8
Athletic Club
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Sevilla
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Osasuna
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
9.0
Getafe
8.7
Elche
8.3
Celta Vigo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.3
Getafe
5.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.6
Sevilla
5.2
Malaga
5.2
Real Sociedad
5.1
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Osasuna
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Alaves
4.8
Celta Vigo
4.7
Levante
4.7
Elche
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Athletic Club
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.4
Alaves
28.7
Elche
28.1
Sevilla
27.7
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.6
Espanyol
26.1
Rayo Vallecano
25.6
Athletic Club
25.1
Osasuna
25.0
Celta Vigo
24.9
Villarreal
24.8
Malaga
24.7
Levante
24.4
Valencia
24.3
Real Madrid
23.6
Deportivo La Coruna
23.4
Real Betis
23.3
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.8%
@ 1.66+3.9%
Under 9.5
40.2%
@ 2.11-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Under
Unibet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
79.1%
Under 3.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
79.1%
Under 21.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rayo Vallecano or Draw
83.1%
Avg Implied 69.9% · @ 1.35
Edge
+13.1%
45%
28%
27%
covers Rayo Vallecano + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Rayo Vallecano or Racing Santander
74.5%
Avg Implied 72.4% · @ 1.30
Edge
+2.1%
45%
28%
27%
covers Rayo Vallecano + Racing Santander
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Draw or Racing Santander
42.4%
Avg Implied 57.7% · @ 1.63
Edge
-15.3%
45%
28%
27%
covers Draw + Racing Santander
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
SBO
1.64
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5
Over
82.7%
@ 1.21+5.7%
Under
17.3%
@ 4.05-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.34
BetVictor
4.10
Unibet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5
Over
52.3%
@ 2.05+6.7%
Under
47.7%
@ 1.72-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.07
BetVictor
2.05
Under
1xBet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5
Over
25.7%
@ 4.45+4.7%
Under
74.3%
@ 1.18-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
Pinnacle
4.59
BetVictor
4.50
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Under
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Rayo Vallecano over/under 3.5
Over
10.1%
@ 9.87+0.7%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.03-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
11.00
Marathonbet
9.60
Unibet
9.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Racing Santander over/under 0.5
Over
57.4%
@ 1.32-13.3%
Under
42.6%
@ 3.19+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.35
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.33
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Racing Santander over/under 1.5
Over
21.1%
@ 2.56-15.5%
Under
78.9%
@ 1.48+15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.71
Unibet
2.63
Marathonbet
2.60
Betfair
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
Under
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Racing Santander over/under 2.5
Over
5.5%
@ 6.22-9.5%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.10+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.40
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.15
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Racing Santander over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
@ 14.75-5.4%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.02+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rayo Vallecano, so a minus line means Rayo Vallecano give that many goals of a start and Racing Santander receive them. At -1, Rayo Vallecano must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rayo Vallecano win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rayo Vallecano)
Rayo Vallecano -2
15.2%
@ 9.18+5.4%
Draw -2
18.2%
@ 6.27+3.9%
Racing Santander +2
66.7%
@ 1.18-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
5.80
Away
Unibet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (Rayo Vallecano)
Rayo Vallecano -1
33.3%
@ 4.18+11.8%
Draw -1
24.2%
@ 3.90+1.1%
Racing Santander +1
42.4%
@ 1.63-12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.00
Unibet
3.85
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
3.92
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Away
Unibet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Betfair
1.57
Handicap +1 (Rayo Vallecano)
Rayo Vallecano +1
83.1%
@ 1.34+16.2%
Draw +1
11.2%
@ 4.67-7.9%
Racing Santander -1
5.7%
@ 6.41-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
10Bet
6.00
Handicap +2 (Rayo Vallecano)
Rayo Vallecano +2
94.3%
@ 1.08+10.3%
Draw +2
4.3%
@ 8.88-6.0%
Racing Santander -2
1.4%
@ 16.00-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.50
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Away
Betfair
18.00
Bet365
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Unibet
14.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rayo Vallecano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.57
0.21
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.58
1.17
0.17
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.56
0.12
0.25
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Santander) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing Santander
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
1.12
0.69
0.79
0.29
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.41
1.44
0.56
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.60
0.25
1.00
1.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.4%
@ 1.36+6.4%
Under 0.5
24.6%
@ 3.03-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.20
William Hil
3.10
Unibet
3.05
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.2%
@ 2.64+0.8%
Under 1.5
63.8%
@ 1.45-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.77
Pinnacle
2.76
Marathonbet
2.70
1xBet
2.70
William Hil
2.62
Under
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.2%
@ 6.52+0.8%
Under 2.5
84.8%
@ 1.09-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
William Hil
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
Under
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 HT
Over
59.3%
@ 1.90+10.1%
Under
40.7%
@ 1.83-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
10Bet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Unibet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 HT
Over
24.5%
@ 5.46+7.6%
Under
75.5%
@ 1.11-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.70
1xBet
5.70
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.30
Unibet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.13
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.5%
@ 11.25-0.9%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.02+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Racing Santander over/under 0.5 HT
Over
30.0%
@ 2.19-12.6%
Under
70.0%
@ 1.62+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.29
Betano
2.20
Unibet
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
Under
10Bet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Racing Santander over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.5%
@ 6.96-7.8%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.07+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
1xBet
7.30
Unibet
7.00
Betano
6.70
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Racing Santander over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
@ 12.50-6.5%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rayo Vallecano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
1.00
0.57
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.67
1.00
0.62
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Santander) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing Santander
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.97
1.38
0.88
0.43
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.06
0.76
1.56
0.67
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
1.30
2.00
1.25
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.1%
@ 1.21+6.0%
Under 0.5
16.9%
@ 4.04-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Under
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Betano
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.6%
@ 2.01+10.1%
Under 1.5
43.4%
@ 1.75-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Unibet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Under
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.3%
@ 4.12+1.7%
Under 2.5
75.7%
@ 1.20-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.30
William Hil
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Under
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 2H
Over
68.2%
@ 1.62+10.6%
Under
31.8%
@ 2.20-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Under
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 2H
Over
32.4%
@ 3.90+8.7%
Under
67.6%
@ 1.21-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
1xBet
3.90
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 2H
Over
11.2%
@ 8.75+0.5%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.05-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Racing Santander over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.0%
@ 1.81-11.3%
Under
60.0%
@ 1.91+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
Racing Santander over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.5%
@ 5.01-10.0%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.14+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.70
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Racing Santander over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
@ 10.50-6.9%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.03+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.5%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+5.4%
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.0%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.9%
Under 5.5
95.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
+3.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.5%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
+7.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
94.5%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
+9.5%
Home +2 handicap
94.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
+10.3%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.5%
1.14
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-
+10.0%
Over 2.5 cards
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-0.7%
Over 19.5 fouls
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.8%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.5%
Under 4.5
87.6%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.11
+4.3%
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.8%
1.09
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
-0.8%
Home or Draw
83.1%
1.35
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
+13.1%
Home +1 handicap
83.1%
1.34
Marathonbet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
+16.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.1%
1.21
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+6.0%
Home over 0.5 goals
82.7%
1.21
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+5.7%
Over 3.5 cards
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.9%
1.48
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
+15.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.7%
1.20
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-1.7%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
75.5%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-7.6%
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.4%
1.36
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
+6.4%
Over 1.5
75.2%
1.25
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
BetVictor
1.26
Bet365
1.25
+0.4%
Home or Away
74.5%
1.30
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
+2.1%
Home under 2.5 goals
74.3%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
-4.7%
Under 3.5
72.7%
1.38
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
10Bet
1.38
BetVictor
1.37
+4.3%
Over 8.5 corners
71.7%
1.37
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Unibet
1.33
-
+4.6%
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.0%
1.62
10Bet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
+12.6%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rayo Vallecano
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sergio Camello67%
Álvaro García33%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Unai López0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Fran Pérez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sergio Camello33%
Unai López33%
Álvaro García33%
Fran Pérez33%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Unai López33%
Álvaro García33%
Jorge de Frutos33%
Sergio Camello0%
Florian Lejeune0%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Randy Nteka0%
Fran Pérez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergio Camello33%
Florian Lejeune33%
Pathé Ismaël Ciss0%
Óscar Valentín0%
Unai López0%
Álvaro García0%
Randy Nteka0%
Jorge de Frutos0%
Fran Pérez0%
Racing Santander
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andrés Martín33%
Yassir Zabiri33%
Sergio Canales0%
Iñigo Vicente0%
Asier Villalibre0%
Manu Hernando0%
Alvaro Mantilla0%
Julen Agirrezabala0%
Facundo González0%
Gustavo Puerta0%
Maguette Gueye0%
Jorge Salinas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alvaro Mantilla67%
Manu Hernando33%
Facundo González33%
Gustavo Puerta33%
Jorge Salinas33%
Sergio Canales0%
Andrés Martín0%
Iñigo Vicente0%
Asier Villalibre0%
Julen Agirrezabala0%
Maguette Gueye0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Iñigo Vicente33%
Sergio Canales0%
Andrés Martín0%
Asier Villalibre0%
Manu Hernando0%
Alvaro Mantilla0%
Julen Agirrezabala0%
Facundo González0%
Gustavo Puerta0%
Maguette Gueye0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Jorge Salinas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andrés Martín67%
Sergio Canales33%
Yassir Zabiri33%
Iñigo Vicente0%
Asier Villalibre0%
Manu Hernando0%
Alvaro Mantilla0%
Julen Agirrezabala0%
Facundo González0%
Gustavo Puerta0%
Maguette Gueye0%
Jorge Salinas0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Rayo Vallecano's squad is €13m less valuable than Racing Santander's (€76m vs €89m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Rayo Vallecano's attack is €3m less valuable than Racing Santander's (€30m vs €34m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Rayo Vallecano's midfield is €19m less valuable than Racing Santander's (€9m vs €28m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Rayo Vallecano's defence is €9m more valuable than Racing Santander's (€36m vs €28m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Elche
Malaga