PythiaFootballBETA
The matchup between Rayo Vallecano and Villarreal in La Liga is finely balanced, with Rayo Vallecano coming off a defeat and Villarreal on a 2-game winning run. Rayo Vallecano's home form against stronger opponents is impressive, with an average of 2.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. In contrast, Villarreal's away form against weaker opponents has seen them average 1.5 goals scored and 1.12 conceded.
The model predicts a 36% chance of a home win, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 34% chance of an away win, with the model's selection being a home win. The expected total goals is 2.4, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 14.4% of the time. The model also suggests selecting Under 3.5, Over 3.5 cards, Over 21.5 fouls, and Over 1.5, with probabilities of 77.9%, 72.5%, 71.5%, and 70.5% respectively. Rayo Vallecano has a 36% chance of winning, a 30% chance of drawing, and a 34% chance of losing.
The win extends Rayo Vallecano's recent form storyline, having come off a defeat but still managing to secure a narrow victory. The 2-0 scoreline was the actual result, matching the model's prediction of a home win, which was correct. The model's selection, a home win, had a pre-match probability of 36%. The predicted scores of 1-1, 0-0, and 1-0 were all possible outcomes, with 1-1 being the most likely. The model's selections largely came in, with Under 3.5 goals hitting, Over 3.5 cards missing, Over 21.5 fouls hitting, and Over 1.5 hitting, with respective probabilities of 77.9%, 72.5%, 71.5%, and 70.5%.
Rayo Vallecano| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 1.17 | 1.56 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.64 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 1.62 | 1.12 | 2.50 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 1.10 | 1.70 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Villarreal| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.57 | 2.14 | 1.43 | 1.06 | 1.69 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 2.67 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.30 | 2.20 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 0.83 | 2.17 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 1.94 | 1.00 | 2.75 | 0.88 | 1.22 | 1.11 |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-18pp vs league) | |||||
| Villarreal goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 10% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 9.7% | 14% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Rayo VallecanoVillarrealRayo Vallecano| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.0 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 25.1 | 23.2 | 26.8 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 11.2 | 10.5 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 25.5 | 26.0 | 25.0 |
| vs Similar (34) | 10.9 | 11.5 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 24.8 | 22.1 | 27.4 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 13.0 | 12.0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 27.5 | 26.0 | 29.0 |
| % over line | 69% | 75% | 64% | 74% | 75% | 73% | 78% | 71% | 84% |
| % under line | 31% | 25% | 36% | 26% | 25% | 27% | 22% | 29% | 16% |
Villarreal| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.9 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 24.4 | 23.6 | 25.2 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 9.0 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 24.8 | 26.2 | 23.2 |
| vs Similar (16) | 9.1 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 24.1 | 22.1 | 26.1 |
| vs Weaker (26) | 8.8 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 24.5 | 23.8 | 25.1 |
| % over line | 40% | 50% | 31% | 56% | 54% | 58% | 64% | 58% | 69% |
| % under line | 60% | 50% | 69% | 44% | 46% | 42% | 36% | 42% | 31% |
Rayo Vallecano| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.69 | 0.25 | 0.43 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.75 | 0.62 | 1.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.50 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Villarreal| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.67 | 1.14 | 0.43 | 0.50 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.80 | 0.70 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 0.94 | 0.59 | 1.38 | 0.25 | 0.56 | 0.89 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Rayo Vallecano| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.60 | 0.88 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.88 | 0.50 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Villarreal| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 0.81 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 0.33 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 1.00 | 0.41 | 1.38 | 0.62 | 0.67 | 0.22 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 88.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 85.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 77.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 74.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 73.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 73.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 70.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/25 | A | 4-0 | |
| 22/02/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 18/12/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 28/04/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 24/09/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 28/05/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 30/01/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/05/22 | H | 1-5 |
Rayo Vallecano| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 11/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 07/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 30/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 23/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 16/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 09/04/26 | H | 3-0 |
Villarreal| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 23/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | 94 | 82% | 2.5 | 95 | 36 | +59 | 3.4 | 89% | 74% | 42% | 11.3 | 68% | 4.5 | 51% | 21.4 | 50% | 1301 | 589 | 298 | 413 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 69% |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 38 | 86 | 71% | 2.3 | 77 | 35 | +42 | 2.9 | 87% | 55% | 26% | 9.9 | 55% | 4.8 | 54% | 24.4 | 68% | 1256 | 712 | 250 | 294 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 59% |
| 3 | Villarreal | 38 | 72 | 58% | 1.9 | 72 | 46 | +26 | 3.1 | 92% | 58% | 37% | 9.1 | 45% | 4.3 | 58% | 24.1 | 61% | 360 | 168 | 55 | 137 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 45% |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 38 | 69 | 55% | 1.8 | 62 | 44 | +18 | 2.8 | 74% | 50% | 26% | 10.8 | 61% | 4.4 | 59% | 20.9 | 39% | 540 | 226 | 123 | 190 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 38 | 60 | 39% | 1.6 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 2.8 | 89% | 53% | 26% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.6 | 65% | 23.7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 6 |  Celta Vigo | 38 | 54 | 37% | 1.4 | 53 | 48 | +5 | 2.7 | 79% | 45% | 24% | 8.4 | 29% | 4.4 | 58% | 24.1 | 63% | 200 | 81 | 39 | 80 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 7 |  Getafe | 38 | 51 | 39% | 1.3 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 1.8 | 58% | 26% | 5% | 8.9 | 37% | 5.6 | 79% | 29.8 | 100% | 94 | 46 | 25 | 23 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 40% |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 50 | 32% | 1.3 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 2.2 | 71% | 37% | 16% | 10.9 | 66% | 5.3 | 74% | 24.5 | 76% | 94 | 29 | 11 | 54 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 9 |  Valencia | 38 | 49 | 34% | 1.3 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 2.7 | 79% | 42% | 24% | 9.9 | 45% | 4.6 | 68% | 24.2 | 66% | 147 | 54 | 46 | 47 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 38 | 46 | 29% | 1.2 | 59 | 61 | -2 | 3.2 | 82% | 58% | 42% | 10.1 | 53% | 5.0 | 63% | 26.6 | 76% | 270 | 132 | 54 | 83 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 11 |  Espanyol | 38 | 46 | 32% | 1.2 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 2.6 | 76% | 50% | 24% | 9.5 | 45% | 5.2 | 70% | 26.5 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 42% |
| 12 |  Athletic Club | 38 | 45 | 34% | 1.2 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 2.7 | 74% | 47% | 21% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.6 | 67% | 24.3 | 66% | 236 | 103 | 57 | 76 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 13 |  Elche | 38 | 43 | 26% | 1.1 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 2.8 | 79% | 58% | 39% | 8.3 | 34% | 4.6 | 71% | 28.3 | 92% | 127 | 34 | 37 | 56 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 58% |
| 14 |  Alaves | 38 | 43 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 2.6 | 71% | 50% | 24% | 10.1 | 53% | 4.9 | 74% | 28.4 | 95% | 78 | 26 | 22 | 29 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 15 |  Sevilla | 38 | 43 | 32% | 1.1 | 46 | 60 | -14 | 2.8 | 79% | 55% | 26% | 9.3 | 50% | 5.2 | 68% | 27.6 | 82% | 163 | 65 | 28 | 70 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 2.5 | 68% | 50% | 26% | 8.6 | 32% | 5.1 | 79% | 25.1 | 82% | 99 | 51 | 13 | 35 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 17 |  Mallorca | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 47 | 57 | -10 | 2.7 | 84% | 63% | 21% | 10.0 | 58% | 4.7 | 62% | 24.6 | 74% | 77 | 31 | 23 | 23 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 18 |  Levante | 38 | 42 | 29% | 1.1 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 2.8 | 87% | 45% | 29% | 10.2 | 47% | 4.9 | 71% | 25.3 | 76% | 111 | 68 | 15 | 27 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 43% |
| 19 |  Girona | 38 | 41 | 24% | 1.1 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 2.5 | 79% | 45% | 16% | 9.4 | 39% | 4.4 | 50% | 25.0 | 71% | 199 | 83 | 33 | 84 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 38 | 29 | 16% | 0.8 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 2.3 | 66% | 39% | 16% | 9.5 | 47% | 4.2 | 58% | 24.1 | 63% | 61 | 26 | 11 | 23 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 46% |