RB Leipzig are the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 65% chance of a home win and picking that outcome as the most likely result. The prediction reflects Leipzig’s strong home form: they average 2.55 goals scored and only 0.73 conceded against weaker opponents, while Mönchengladbach, playing away against a stronger side, struggles to score, averaging 0.33 and conceding 2.33. The expected total is 3.2 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 9.9% probability. Leipzig’s recent form, after a 1-4 loss to SC Freiburg, shows they are still potent at home, whereas Mönchengladbach’s 4-0 win away suggests they can score but will likely concede heavily. The model also offers selections: Away under 2.5 HT goals99.3% (edge 4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals98.1% (edge 4%), Under 7.597.6% (edge 2%), Away under 3.5 goals97.5% (edge 3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals94.7% (edge 5%), Home +2 handicap94.2% (edge 4%), Under 6.594.0% (edge 1%), and Away under 1.5 HT goals92.3% (edge 4%). The draw probability stands at 21%, and the away win probability at 14%.
Results analysis
RB Leipzig’s recent win streak extended as they secured a 3-0 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach, matching the model’s predicted home win and confirming the favoured outcome. The model had assigned a 66% probability to a home win, and it proved correct. The predicted most likely scoreline of 3 goals materialised, with the 2-0 and 2-1 options each at 9.8% and 1-1 at 9.4%. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.1%, Under 7.5 hit at 97.6%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 94.7%, Home +2 handicap hit at 94.2%, Under 6.5 hit at 94.0%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 92.3%. All eight picks settled as predicted.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
RB Leipzig win✓ Hit
65.5%
Avg Implied 60.5% · @ 1.57
Edge
+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.58
888Sport
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Draw✗ Miss
20.3%
Avg Implied 21.4% · @ 4.43
Edge
-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.62
Marathonbet
4.60
Dafabet
4.60
Pinnacle
4.59
Betano
4.55
Borussia Mönchengladbach win✗ Miss
14.2%
Avg Implied 18.1% · @ 5.24
Edge
-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Pinnacle
5.48
1xBet
5.43
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
RB Leipzig
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.33
2.33
1.27
1.67
1.40
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
5.00
1.00
5.00
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
2.00
2.00
2.00
0.67
2.00
vs Weaker (23)
2.22
1.00
2.55
0.73
1.92
1.25
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Mönchengladbach) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.57
1.60
1.33
1.13
1.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.57
0.50
1.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (23)
1.65
1.57
2.00
1.45
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.9%
@ 1.13+2.1%
Under 1.5
15.1%
@ 5.46-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Under
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
Unibet
5.80
888Sport
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.9%
@ 1.48+0.3%
Under 2.5
36.1%
@ 2.59-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.47
Under
10Bet
2.70
Unibet
2.65
888Sport
2.63
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.8%
@ 2.23-0.9%
Under 3.5
58.2%
@ 1.66+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.32
Bet365
2.30
Pinnacle
2.27
Betano
2.27
Marathonbet
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.71
SBO
1.69
Unibet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.7%
@ 1.55-2.6%
No
42.3%
@ 2.35+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.55
No
888Sport
2.40
10Bet
2.40
William Hil
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.8%@ 8.92+4.6%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.56+3.6%
1-1
9.4%@ 8.16+3.7%
1-0
7.7%@ 9.33+2.7%
3-0 ✓
7.5%@ 11.83+3.6%
3-1
7.5%@ 10.01+2.8%
2-2
4.9%@ 12.52+1.2%
0-0
4.6%@ 18.06+2.0%
RB Leipzig goals ↓
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
2.9%
1.9%
0.6%
0.2%
1
7.7%
9.4%
4.3%
1.4%
0.4%
2
9.8%
9.8%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
7.5%
7.5%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
4
4.3%
4.3%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = RB Leipzig goals (down), columns = Borussia Mönchengladbach goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
RB Leipzig is 0.79 points better than Borussia Mönchengladbach in terms of average points per game (1.91 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
RB Leipzig is 0.71 goals better than Borussia Mönchengladbach in terms of goals scored per game (1.94 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
RB Leipzig is 0.18 goals better than Borussia Mönchengladbach in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
RB Leipzig is 7.2 percentage points better than Borussia Mönchengladbach in terms of average possession (54% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
RB Leipzig
For 4.8 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 0.9 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 9.5 · Total 18.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Borussia Mönchengladbach
For 2.2 · Against 5.5 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 10.4 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
RB Leipzig
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.7
10.0
3.5
3.5
3.4
19.9
19.8
20.0
vs Stronger (3)
11.0
11.5
10.0
3.3
2.5
5.0
18.0
14.0
26.0
vs Similar (8)
11.4
11.2
11.7
3.9
4.0
3.7
22.1
22.0
22.3
vs Weaker (39)
10.1
10.4
9.8
3.4
3.5
3.3
19.6
19.8
19.4
% over line
58%
52%
64%
50%
44%
56%
36%
40%
32%
% under line
42%
48%
36%
50%
56%
44%
64%
60%
68%
This opponent (Borussia Mönchengladbach) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.5
9.6
3.8
3.7
3.9
20.4
19.2
21.6
vs Stronger (11)
9.1
7.8
10.2
4.1
4.0
4.2
19.9
19.2
20.5
vs Similar (39)
9.1
8.7
9.4
3.7
3.6
3.8
20.6
19.2
22.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
40%
44%
48%
52%
44%
42%
32%
52%
% under line
58%
60%
56%
52%
48%
56%
58%
68%
48%
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.3
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.2
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
9.9
Hamburger SV
9.9
FC Augsburg
9.8
Union Berlin
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
FC Schalke 04
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.4
FSV Mainz 05
9.3
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.1
Borussia Dortmund
9.0
SC Freiburg
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
Werder Bremen
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
Bayer Leverkusen
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.4
FC Augsburg
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
Union Berlin
4.0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4.0
Bayern München
3.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
SC Freiburg
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SC Paderborn 07
24.4
SV Elversberg
24.1
Hamburger SV
23.8
FC Schalke 04
23.8
SC Freiburg
22.7
1899 Hoffenheim
22.7
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.1
FSV Mainz 05
21.9
FC Augsburg
21.8
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.9
RB Leipzig
19.9
Bayer Leverkusen
19.5
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.3%
@ 1.74+2.9%
Under 9.5
43.7%
@ 2.00-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
Betano
2.02
Superbet
2.02
Unibet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.2%
@ 2.13+7.6%
Under 3.5
48.8%
@ 1.65-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.27
Betano
2.12
Unibet
2.10
1xBet
2.00
Under
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.62
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
34.8%
@ 2.25-6.0%
Under 21.5
65.2%
@ 1.55+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.25
Under
Superbet
1.55
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
RB Leipzig or Draw✓ Hit
84.6%
Avg Implied 81.1% · @ 1.16
Edge
+3.5%
66%
20%
14%
covers RB Leipzig + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
RB Leipzig or Borussia Mönchengladbach✓ Hit
79.8%
Avg Implied 79.0% · @ 1.20
Edge
+0.8%
66%
20%
14%
covers RB Leipzig + Borussia Mönchengladbach
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Draw or Borussia Mönchengladbach✗ Miss
35.6%
Avg Implied 39.9% · @ 2.37
Edge
-4.3%
66%
20%
14%
covers Draw + Borussia Mönchengladbach
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.48
Superbet
2.47
1xBet
2.44
Betfair
2.40
10Bet
2.38
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
RB Leipzig over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
90.3%
@ 1.07+3.5%
Under
9.7%
@ 7.08-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Under
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
7.00
888Sport
7.00
1xBet
6.95
RB Leipzig over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
67.8%
@ 1.46+3.9%
Under
32.2%
@ 2.58-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Under
Pinnacle
2.68
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.60
Unibet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.60
RB Leipzig over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
41.4%
@ 2.47+3.5%
Under
58.6%
@ 1.51-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.54
1xBet
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.48
Under
Pinnacle
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
10Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Superbet
1.52
RB Leipzig over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
20.8%
@ 4.75+1.2%
Under
79.2%
@ 1.16-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
888Sport
4.80
Under
Superbet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
66.3%
@ 1.40-0.3%
Under
33.7%
@ 2.79+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Betano
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.82
BetVictor
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.6%
@ 2.91-2.5%
Under
70.4%
@ 1.38+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.12
Marathonbet
3.02
Superbet
3.00
1xBet
2.98
Unibet
2.88
Under
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.7%
@ 7.33-3.0%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.07+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
Superbet
7.50
1xBet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 18.50-2.7%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to RB Leipzig, so a minus line means RB Leipzig give that many goals of a start and Borussia Mönchengladbach receive them. At -1, RB Leipzig must win by two or more to land; a one-goal RB Leipzig win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (RB Leipzig)Actual: RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig -2
23.6%
@ 4.24+2.3%
Draw -2
19.3%
@ 4.51-0.7%
Borussia Mönchengladbach +2
57.1%
@ 1.54-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
Superbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Away
Superbet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
10Bet
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Handicap -1 (RB Leipzig)Actual: RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig -1
42.9%
@ 2.37+4.6%
Draw -1
21.5%
@ 3.77-2.5%
Borussia Mönchengladbach +1
35.6%
@ 2.41-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.41
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Superbet
2.35
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.65
10Bet
3.65
Away
Marathonbet
2.48
Superbet
2.45
Betfair
2.40
Unibet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Handicap +1 (RB Leipzig)Actual: RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig +1
84.6%
@ 1.15+7.6%
Draw +1
9.6%
@ 6.34-4.4%
Borussia Mönchengladbach -1
5.8%
@ 9.86-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Draw
Unibet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.20
Away
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.50
10Bet
10.00
Marathonbet
5.80
Handicap +2 (RB Leipzig)Actual: RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig +2
94.2%
@ 1.04+3.8%
Draw +2
4.2%
@ 15.00-2.1%
Borussia Mönchengladbach -2
1.7%
@ 28.50-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Away
Betfair
31.00
Bet365
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
RB Leipzig
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.43
1.07
0.27
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.83
1.33
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
0.96
0.35
1.00
0.18
0.92
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Mönchengladbach) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.73
0.73
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.57
0.25
0.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.70
1.00
0.91
0.91
0.50
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.4%
@ 1.24-1.9%
Under 0.5
26.6%
@ 3.80+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Under
BetVictor
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.90
William Hil
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.7%
@ 2.16-6.8%
Under 1.5
63.3%
@ 1.67+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
Pinnacle
2.23
Marathonbet
2.21
SBO
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.70
10Bet
1.70
SBO
1.69
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.3%
@ 4.72-5.6%
Under 2.5
85.7%
@ 1.17+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.25
Betfair
4.80
William Hil
4.80
Betano
4.75
Superbet
4.75
Under
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
RB Leipzig over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
60.4%
@ 1.51-1.4%
Under
39.6%
@ 2.44+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Under
Pinnacle
2.56
10Bet
2.55
Unibet
2.45
Superbet
2.45
1xBet
2.36
RB Leipzig over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
22.8%
@ 3.40-4.5%
Under
77.2%
@ 1.27+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.40
Unibet
3.40
Superbet
3.30
Under
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.25
RB Leipzig over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.3%
@ 8.81-5.2%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.03+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.70
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.30
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.3%
@ 2.36-1.0%
Under
61.7%
@ 1.53+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.53
Superbet
2.37
Betano
2.35
Unibet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.34
Under
1xBet
1.56
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 7.92-4.0%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.05+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.40
1xBet
8.30
Superbet
8.10
Unibet
7.50
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 22.50-3.6%
Under
99.3%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
32.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
RB Leipzig
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.90
1.27
1.00
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
5.00
0.00
5.00
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
1.17
0.67
1.33
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.26
0.65
1.55
0.55
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Mönchengladbach) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
0.87
0.60
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.00
0.25
0.75
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.57
1.09
0.55
0.83
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.7%
@ 1.14+1.5%
Under 0.5
16.3%
@ 5.26-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.40
Unibet
5.40
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
50.9%
@ 1.70-4.4%
Under 1.5
49.1%
@ 2.10+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Superbet
1.74
William Hil
1.70
Under
10Bet
2.15
Unibet
2.14
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.10
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.7%
@ 3.16-5.9%
Under 2.5
76.3%
@ 1.33+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.40
Superbet
3.30
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.20
Marathonbet
3.18
Under
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
RB Leipzig over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
70.2%
@ 1.35+1.2%
Under
29.8%
@ 3.00-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Under
1xBet
3.00
Betano
3.00
Superbet
3.00
RB Leipzig over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
30.9%
@ 2.58-5.0%
Under
69.1%
@ 1.45+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.60
1xBet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.58
Betano
2.57
10Bet
2.55
Under
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Superbet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
RB Leipzig over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 5.94-6.7%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.10+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.30
Superbet
6.10
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
43.7%
@ 1.96-3.6%
Under
56.3%
@ 1.77+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.91
Under
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.79
Superbet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 5.74-4.9%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.11+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
Superbet
6.00
1xBet
5.80
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
Borussia Mönchengladbach over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 15.62-4.3%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.02+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.0%
1.03
1xBet
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.1%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
90.3%
1.07
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.07
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.3%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
86.8%
1.09
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.7%
1.17
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.17
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.9%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
84.6%
1.16
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
84.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.7%
1.14
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.6%
1.14
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
-
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
79.8%
1.20
1xBet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Betano
1.21
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
79.2%
1.16
Superbet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
77.2%
1.27
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.25
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.3%
1.33
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
74.0%
1.26
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.4%
1.24
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.0%
1.53
Superbet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.49
+11.4%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
70.4%
1.38
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
70.2%
1.35
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
-
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
RB Leipzig · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yan Diomande31%
Christoph Baumgartner30%
Rômulo28%
Assan Ouédraogo20%
Antonio Nusa14%
Brajan Gruda14%
Johan Bakayoko14%
Xaver Schlager10%
Conrad Harder9%
David Raum9%
Willi Orbán8%
Ezechiel Banzuzi7%
Max Finkgräfe7%
Benjamin Henrichs6%
Ridle Baku6%
Tidiam Gomis5%
Castello Lukeba3%
Loïs Openda0%
Péter Gulácsi0%
Lukas Klostermann0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
Maarten Vandevoordt0%
Nicolas Seiwald0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christoph Baumgartner30%
David Raum21%
Xaver Schlager20%
Ezechiel Banzuzi18%
Ridle Baku14%
Max Finkgräfe14%
Rômulo12%
Willi Orbán11%
Castello Lukeba10%
Conrad Harder9%
Nicolas Seiwald8%
Brajan Gruda7%
Maarten Vandevoordt6%
Yan Diomande6%
Tidiam Gomis5%
Johan Bakayoko5%
Péter Gulácsi4%
Loïs Openda0%
Benjamin Henrichs0%
Lukas Klostermann0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Antonio Nusa0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Assan Ouédraogo0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Raum24%
Brajan Gruda21%
Yan Diomande19%
Christoph Baumgartner19%
Assan Ouédraogo15%
Lukas Klostermann14%
Rômulo12%
Conrad Harder12%
Ridle Baku11%
Antonio Nusa11%
Max Finkgräfe7%
Willi Orbán5%
Nicolas Seiwald5%
Ezechiel Banzuzi4%
Castello Lukeba3%
Xaver Schlager3%
Loïs Openda0%
Benjamin Henrichs0%
Péter Gulácsi0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
Maarten Vandevoordt0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Johan Bakayoko0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Tidiam Gomis0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Christoph Baumgartner38%
Loïs Openda33%
Yan Diomande22%
Rômulo22%
Antonio Nusa20%
Conrad Harder16%
Brajan Gruda14%
Assan Ouédraogo10%
Johan Bakayoko9%
David Raum3%
Ridle Baku3%
Nicolas Seiwald3%
Benjamin Henrichs0%
Xaver Schlager0%
Péter Gulácsi0%
Lukas Klostermann0%
Willi Orbán0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
Maarten Vandevoordt0%
Castello Lukeba0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Ezechiel Banzuzi0%
Max Finkgräfe0%
Tidiam Gomis0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
Borussia Mönchengladbach · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Haris Tabaković37%
Robin Hack22%
Oscar Fraulo20%
Kevin Diks15%
Shuto Machino12%
Wael Mohya12%
Grant-Leon Ranos10%
Hugo Bolin8%
Jens Castrop7%
Franck Honorat6%
Philipp Sander6%
Yannik Engelhardt6%
Joseph Scally6%
Nico Elvedi6%
Giovanni Reyna5%
Kevin Stöger3%
Marvin Friedrich0%
Moritz Nicolas0%
Florian Neuhaus0%
Tim Kleindienst0%
Luca Netz0%
Rocco Reitz0%
Fabio Chiarodia0%
Lukas Ullrich0%
Kota Takai0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Jan Urbich0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yannik Engelhardt24%
Rocco Reitz24%
Joseph Scally23%
Kevin Diks18%
Haris Tabaković14%
Nico Elvedi14%
Philipp Sander12%
Kota Takai12%
Luca Netz12%
Robin Hack11%
Grant-Leon Ranos10%
Kevin Stöger9%
Lukas Ullrich8%
Jens Castrop7%
Fabio Chiarodia6%
Shuto Machino6%
Wael Mohya6%
Giovanni Reyna5%
Moritz Nicolas3%
Franck Honorat0%
Marvin Friedrich0%
Florian Neuhaus0%
Tim Kleindienst0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Hugo Bolin0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Jan Urbich0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Franck Honorat29%
Luca Netz12%
Rocco Reitz12%
Kevin Stöger9%
Haris Tabaković9%
Hugo Bolin8%
Yannik Engelhardt6%
Wael Mohya6%
Joseph Scally6%
Florian Neuhaus6%
Jens Castrop4%
Shuto Machino3%
Nico Elvedi3%
Robin Hack0%
Marvin Friedrich0%
Philipp Sander0%
Moritz Nicolas0%
Tim Kleindienst0%
Kevin Diks0%
Giovanni Reyna0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Grant-Leon Ranos0%
Fabio Chiarodia0%
Lukas Ullrich0%
Kota Takai0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Jan Urbich0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Haris Tabaković29%
Robin Hack22%
Jens Castrop14%
Florian Neuhaus11%
Grant-Leon Ranos10%
Philipp Sander9%
Kevin Stöger9%
Rocco Reitz9%
Shuto Machino6%
Kevin Diks3%
Yannik Engelhardt3%
Joseph Scally3%
Nico Elvedi0%
Franck Honorat0%
Marvin Friedrich0%
Moritz Nicolas0%
Tim Kleindienst0%
Giovanni Reyna0%
Luca Netz0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Fabio Chiarodia0%
Lukas Ullrich0%
Hugo Bolin0%
Kota Takai0%
Alejo Sarco0%
Jan Urbich0%
Wael Mohya0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
RB Leipzig's squad is €377m more valuable than Borussia Mönchengladbach's (€506m vs €129m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
RB Leipzig's attack is €154m more valuable than Borussia Mönchengladbach's (€212m vs €58m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
RB Leipzig's midfield is €88m more valuable than Borussia Mönchengladbach's (€109m vs €22m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
RB Leipzig's defence is €135m more valuable than Borussia Mönchengladbach's (€185m vs €49m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
SC Freiburg
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart