PythiaFootballBETA
RB Leipzig, with a 69% chance of winning, is the clear favourite to take down FC St. Pauli on May 9th. The model rates them highly due to their tendency to thrive at home, where they've scored an average of 2.67 goals and conceded just 0.75. Meanwhile, FC St. Pauli's recent form has been inconsistent, coming off a draw and struggling to find the back of the net, scoring an average of just 0.67 goals when playing away against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a 3.0 expected total goals and a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is a 2-0 RB Leipzig win, with a 11.9% probability. In terms of match result, a home win is the model's selection with a 69% probability, a draw is 20% likely, and an away win is 11% likely.
The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection with an 81.5% probability and an Under 21.5 fouls selection with a 71.7% probability.
RB Leipzig's win extends their run, coming off a defeat at home. The final score was 2-1, confirming the actual result of home win. The model correctly picked the home win, which had a pre-match probability of 69%. The model's selection was correct, as RB Leipzig were the favourites. The model's selections largely came in, with the over 1.5 goals hitting, having a probability of 81.5%, and under 21.5 fouls also hitting, with a probability of 71.7%. The most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 23%, and the most likely scores were 2-0, 1-0, and 2-1.
RB Leipzig| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.03 | 1.20 | 2.40 | 1.27 | 1.67 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 5.00 | 1.00 | 5.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (4) | 1.25 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Weaker (25) | 2.20 | 0.84 | 2.67 | 0.75 | 1.77 | 0.92 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
FC St. Pauli| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.73 | 0.87 | 1.67 | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.69 | 2.08 | 0.71 | 1.57 | 0.67 | 2.67 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.76 | 1.47 | 1.00 | 1.75 | 0.56 | 1.22 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-10pp vs league) | |||||
| FC St. Pauli goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.8% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 12% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 8.8% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
RB LeipzigFC St. PauliRB Leipzig| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 10.7 | 10.3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 10.5 | 10.7 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 18.8 | 16.3 | 26.0 |
| vs Similar (6) | 11.2 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 |
| vs Weaker (40) | 10.4 | 10.7 | 10.1 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 19.7 | 19.9 | 19.4 |
| % over line | 60% | 54% | 67% | 52% | 46% | 58% | 36% | 38% | 33% |
| % under line | 40% | 46% | 33% | 48% | 54% | 42% | 64% | 62% | 67% |
FC St. Pauli| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.4 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 |
| vs Stronger (22) | 8.7 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 21.2 | 21.6 | 20.8 |
| vs Similar (28) | 10.0 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 19.8 | 19.3 | 20.1 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 48% | 52% | 46% | 48% | 44% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| % under line | 50% | 52% | 48% | 54% | 52% | 56% | 64% | 64% | 64% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 21.5 fouls | 71.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/01/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/02/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/09/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 12/02/16 | A | 1-0 | |
| 23/08/15 | H | 0-1 |
RB Leipzig| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 24/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 2-2 |
FC St. Pauli| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 22/02/26 | H | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Bayern München | 34 | 89 | 82% | 2.6 | 122 | 36 | +86 | 4.6 | 97% | 94% | 76% | 9.9 | 53% | 3.7 | 45% | 17.8 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 67% |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 34 | 73 | 65% | 2.1 | 70 | 34 | +36 | 3.1 | 85% | 56% | 32% | 9.5 | 44% | 3.8 | 58% | 21.9 | 59% | 500 | 170 | 122 | 208 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 53% |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 65 | 59% | 1.9 | 66 | 47 | +19 | 3.3 | 85% | 71% | 47% | 9.6 | 53% | 3.3 | 44% | 19.6 | 29% | 619 | 346 | 104 | 168 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 62 | 53% | 1.8 | 71 | 49 | +22 | 3.5 | 85% | 74% | 53% | 9.9 | 56% | 3.7 | 45% | 21.9 | 53% | 448 | 210 | 88 | 150 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 58% |
| 5 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | 61 | 53% | 1.8 | 65 | 52 | +13 | 3.4 | 85% | 71% | 50% | 10.6 | 65% | 4.1 | 64% | 22.9 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 55% |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 59 | 50% | 1.7 | 68 | 47 | +21 | 3.4 | 85% | 59% | 41% | 9.7 | 59% | 4.9 | 59% | 19.8 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 59% |
| 7 |  SC Freiburg | 34 | 47 | 38% | 1.4 | 51 | 57 | -6 | 3.2 | 82% | 65% | 38% | 8.3 | 35% | 3.8 | 50% | 21.5 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 48% |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 44 | 32% | 1.3 | 61 | 65 | -4 | 3.7 | 88% | 68% | 53% | 9.2 | 50% | 4.3 | 56% | 20.1 | 38% | 357 | 183 | 50 | 124 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 55% |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 34 | 43 | 35% | 1.3 | 45 | 61 | -16 | 3.1 | 85% | 62% | 41% | 10.2 | 56% | 4.5 | 70% | 22.6 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 44% |
| 10 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 40 | 29% | 1.2 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 2.9 | 82% | 53% | 32% | 9.6 | 50% | 4.2 | 62% | 21.0 | 44% | 154 | 50 | 62 | 42 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 44% |
| 11 |  Union Berlin | 34 | 39 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 58 | -14 | 3.0 | 76% | 62% | 47% | 9.8 | 53% | 4.3 | 58% | 22.3 | 47% | 130 | 37 | 25 | 68 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 40% |
| 12 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 34 | 38 | 26% | 1.1 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 2.8 | 71% | 53% | 38% | 8.6 | 38% | 4.2 | 50% | 21.8 | 50% | 162 | 64 | 51 | 47 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 13 |  Hamburger SV | 34 | 38 | 26% | 1.1 | 40 | 54 | -14 | 2.8 | 79% | 56% | 32% | 9.5 | 47% | 5.2 | 73% | 24.5 | 74% | 177 | 58 | 21 | 98 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 34 | 32 | 21% | 0.9 | 49 | 63 | -14 | 3.3 | 85% | 65% | 47% | 10.1 | 50% | 4.6 | 66% | 18.7 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 47% |
| 15 |  Werder Bremen | 34 | 32 | 24% | 0.9 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 2.9 | 79% | 53% | 35% | 9.5 | 56% | 4.2 | 61% | 19.5 | 32% | 168 | 47 | 30 | 91 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 51% |
| 16 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 36 | 30 | 19% | 0.8 | 46 | 71 | -25 | 3.2 | 78% | 64% | 42% | 11.9 | 72% | 3.9 | 50% | 20.6 | 44% | 201 | 78 | 25 | 98 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 45% |
| 17 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 34 | 26 | 18% | 0.8 | 41 | 72 | -31 | 3.3 | 91% | 68% | 41% | 9.6 | 41% | 3.7 | 50% | 20.1 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 42% |
| 18 | FC St. Pauli | 34 | 26 | 18% | 0.8 | 29 | 60 | -31 | 2.6 | 82% | 56% | 21% | 9.9 | 56% | 3.4 | 44% | 19.0 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 44% |
| 19 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 13.0 | 50% | 8.0 | 100% | 24.5 | 50% | 53 | 10 | 21 | 22 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 52% |