RB Leipzig’s home form is a clear advantage, with a 74% chance of victory, a 17% draw probability and only 9% for Hamburg to win. The model favours a 2-0 win for Leipzig, the most likely scoreline at 11.6%. The average goals per match is 3.3, with the most probable total of three goals at 22%. Leipzig has been prolific at home, scoring 2.58 goals and conceding just 0.67 against weaker opponents, while Hamburg, playing away against stronger teams, averages only one goal scored and two conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.5% (edge 6%), Away under 3.5 goals at 99.1% (edge 3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.5% (edge 6%), Under 7.5 at 97.7% (edge 2%), Home +2 handicap at 97.4% (edge 4%), Away under 2.5 goals at 95.2% (edge 5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.7% (edge 8%) and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 94.3% (edge 4%). Leipzig’s recent win over Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hamburg’s defeat to Dortmund underline the home side’s momentum and the away side’s vulnerability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
RB Leipzig win
75.2%
Avg Implied 69.6% · @ 1.35
Edge
+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.38
Dafabet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
Draw
16.2%
Avg Implied 17.8% · @ 5.28
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.58
Marathonbet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Pinnacle
5.42
Unibet
5.40
Hamburger SV win
8.6%
Avg Implied 12.6% · @ 7.45
Edge
-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
8.60
1xBet
8.10
Marathonbet
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
RB Leipzig
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.33
2.38
1.19
1.71
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
5.00
1.00
5.00
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
2.00
2.00
2.00
0.67
2.00
vs Weaker (23)
2.30
1.00
2.58
0.67
2.00
1.36
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.60
1.53
1.27
1.00
1.93
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.75
1.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.36
1.55
1.73
1.18
1.00
1.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.1%
@ 1.11+2.2%
Under 1.5
13.9%
@ 5.78-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Under
Unibet
7.00
Betano
5.70
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.2%
@ 1.41-0.3%
Under 2.5
33.8%
@ 2.79+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
1xBet
1.40
Under
Unibet
3.05
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.82
Pinnacle
2.76
Bet365
2.75
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.3%
@ 2.09-1.4%
Under 3.5
55.7%
@ 1.76+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.17
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.11
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Under
Unibet
1.84
1xBet
1.81
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Both teams to score
Yes
51.9%
@ 1.65-4.6%
No
48.1%
@ 2.14+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.67
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Betfair
1.65
No
Unibet
2.25
1xBet
2.15
William Hil
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.12
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.2%@ 7.81+5.5%
3-0
9.7%@ 9.36+4.9%
2-1
9.0%@ 8.00+3.4%
1-0
7.9%@ 9.38+3.1%
3-1
7.8%@ 9.42+3.1%
1-1
7.6%@ 9.80+3.0%
4-0
6.3%@ 13.85+3.1%
4-1
5.1%@ 14.65+2.0%
RB Leipzig goals ↓
Hamburger SV goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
2.0%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
1
7.9%
7.6%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
2
11%
9.0%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
3
9.7%
7.8%
3.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
6.3%
5.1%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = RB Leipzig goals (down), columns = Hamburger SV goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
RB Leipzig is 0.79 points better than Hamburger SV in terms of average points per game (1.91 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
RB Leipzig is 0.76 goals better than Hamburger SV in terms of goals scored per game (1.94 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
RB Leipzig is 0.21 goals better than Hamburger SV in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
RB Leipzig is 8.5 percentage points better than Hamburger SV in terms of average possession (54% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
RB Leipzig
For 4.9 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 0.7 · Total 2.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 9.9 · Total 19.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hamburger SV
For 3.2 · Against 6.9 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 11.8 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
RB Leipzig
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.8
10.0
3.2
3.4
3.1
20.0
19.9
20.0
vs Stronger (3)
11.0
11.5
10.0
3.3
2.5
5.0
18.0
14.0
26.0
vs Similar (9)
11.4
11.2
11.7
3.4
4.0
2.8
22.1
22.0
22.3
vs Weaker (38)
10.2
10.7
9.7
3.2
3.3
3.0
19.6
20.0
19.3
% over line
60%
56%
65%
46%
40%
52%
38%
44%
30%
% under line
40%
44%
35%
54%
60%
48%
62%
56%
70%
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.6
9.6
4.9
4.7
5.2
23.9
23.5
24.2
vs Stronger (9)
9.7
10.5
9.0
4.3
4.8
4.0
23.6
23.2
23.8
vs Similar (32)
9.5
9.5
9.6
5.1
4.7
5.5
24.3
24.9
23.8
vs Weaker (9)
9.8
9.2
10.5
4.9
4.6
5.2
22.6
19.8
26.0
% over line
47%
46%
48%
70%
68%
72%
67%
67%
68%
% under line
53%
54%
52%
30%
32%
28%
33%
33%
32%
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.4
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.3
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
10.0
FC Augsburg
9.8
FC Schalke 04
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Union Berlin
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.5
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.0
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
Werder Bremen
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.3
FC Augsburg
4.2
Union Berlin
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.9
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
SC Freiburg
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Elversberg
24.3
SC Paderborn 07
24.2
Hamburger SV
24.1
FC Schalke 04
23.6
SC Freiburg
22.9
1899 Hoffenheim
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
FSV Mainz 05
21.7
FC Augsburg
21.7
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.5
RB Leipzig
19.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.8
Bayer Leverkusen
19.7
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.3%
@ 1.72+1.8%
Under 9.5
44.7%
@ 1.98-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.72
Under
Unibet
1.98
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.3%
Under 3.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
46.2%
Under 21.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
RB Leipzig or Draw
91.4%
Avg Implied 87.3% · @ 1.09
Edge
+4.2%
75%
16%
9%
covers RB Leipzig + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
RB Leipzig or Hamburger SV
83.8%
Avg Implied 82.7% · @ 1.15
Edge
+1.1%
75%
16%
9%
covers RB Leipzig + Hamburger SV
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Draw or Hamburger SV
24.8%
Avg Implied 30.0% · @ 3.16
Edge
-5.2%
75%
16%
9%
covers Draw + Hamburger SV
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
1xBet
3.20
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
RB Leipzig over/under 0.5
Over
92.6%
@ 1.04+2.9%
Under
7.4%
@ 9.08-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
Under
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.50
1xBet
9.30
Betfair
9.00
Betano
7.60
RB Leipzig over/under 1.5
Over
73.3%
@ 1.32+2.5%
Under
26.7%
@ 3.20-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Under
Unibet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.20
10Bet
3.20
RB Leipzig over/under 2.5
Over
48.2%
@ 2.02+2.0%
Under
51.8%
@ 1.74-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
1xBet
2.09
Marathonbet
2.09
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Under
Unibet
1.80
Betfair
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
RB Leipzig over/under 3.5
Over
26.4%
@ 3.63+0.8%
Under
73.6%
@ 1.25-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.97
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.66
Marathonbet
3.66
Betfair
3.60
Under
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Hamburger SV over/under 0.5
Over
55.3%
@ 1.52-5.7%
Under
44.7%
@ 2.38+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Under
Unibet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.45
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.36
Hamburger SV over/under 1.5
Over
19.3%
@ 3.65-6.3%
Under
80.7%
@ 1.26+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.74
Marathonbet
3.74
Under
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Hamburger SV over/under 2.5
Over
4.8%
@ 9.72-4.8%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.03+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.50
Unibet
8.50
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.02
Hamburger SV over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
@ 23.25-3.2%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to RB Leipzig, so a minus line means RB Leipzig give that many goals of a start and Hamburger SV receive them. At -1, RB Leipzig must win by two or more to land; a one-goal RB Leipzig win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (RB Leipzig)
RB Leipzig -2
33.0%
@ 3.07+3.7%
Draw -2
21.4%
@ 4.12-0.5%
Hamburger SV +2
45.5%
@ 1.85-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Betfair
3.00
Unibet
2.90
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Unibet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Away
Unibet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Betfair
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Handicap -1 (RB Leipzig)
RB Leipzig -1
54.5%
@ 1.85+5.7%
Draw -1
20.7%
@ 3.88-2.5%
Hamburger SV +1
24.8%
@ 3.22-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.95
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.82
Betfair
1.80
Draw
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.82
10Bet
3.70
Away
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
Unibet
3.15
Handicap +1 (RB Leipzig)
RB Leipzig +1
91.4%
@ 1.07+6.8%
Draw +1
5.9%
@ 9.25-3.9%
Hamburger SV -1
2.6%
@ 16.25-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
10Bet
1.06
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Bet365
19.00
10Bet
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
14.00
Handicap +2 (RB Leipzig)
RB Leipzig +2
97.4%
@ 1.02+3.8%
Draw +2
2.1%
@ 21.00-2.5%
Hamburger SV -2
0.6%
@ 51.00-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Draw
Bet365
21.00
Away
Bet365
51.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
RB Leipzig
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.43
1.06
0.25
0.79
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.83
1.33
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
0.96
0.35
1.00
0.17
0.91
0.55
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.73
0.73
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.77
0.82
0.82
0.27
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.0%
@ 1.22-0.8%
Under 0.5
24.0%
@ 4.03+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.7%
@ 2.07-7.7%
Under 1.5
62.3%
@ 1.72+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.17
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Pinnacle
2.11
Under
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Betfair
1.75
Unibet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.7%
@ 4.37-7.6%
Under 2.5
86.3%
@ 1.19+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Betano
4.45
William Hil
4.40
Under
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
RB Leipzig over/under 0.5 HT
Over
65.6%
@ 1.39-1.1%
Under
34.4%
@ 2.80+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.34
Under
Unibet
2.90
Pinnacle
2.88
10Bet
2.88
1xBet
2.70
Betano
2.62
RB Leipzig over/under 1.5 HT
Over
23.3%
@ 2.90-8.7%
Under
76.7%
@ 1.36+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Pinnacle
2.93
1xBet
2.90
Unibet
2.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.36
RB Leipzig over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.3%
@ 6.97-7.9%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.06+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.90
Unibet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Hamburger SV over/under 0.5 HT
Over
30.5%
@ 2.71-3.9%
Under
69.5%
@ 1.42+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.88
Pinnacle
2.85
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.62
Under
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Unibet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Hamburger SV over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.7%
@ 9.50-4.1%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
Unibet
9.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Hamburger SV over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.5%
@ 15.00-5.8%
Under
99.5%
@ 1.01+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
RB Leipzig
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.90
1.31
0.94
0.93
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
5.00
0.00
5.00
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
1.17
0.67
1.33
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.35
0.65
1.58
0.50
1.09
0.82
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamburger SV) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamburger SV
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.80
0.53
0.67
1.20
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.12
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.77
0.91
0.36
0.73
1.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.2%
@ 1.12-0.3%
Under 0.5
16.8%
@ 5.69+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Under
Unibet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
1xBet
5.80
Betano
5.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.4%
@ 1.63-4.0%
Under 1.5
46.6%
@ 2.20+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Betano
1.62
Under
Unibet
2.35
10Bet
2.25
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.8%
@ 2.91-8.3%
Under 2.5
76.2%
@ 1.38+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.10
1xBet
3.02
Marathonbet
3.02
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.85
Under
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
RB Leipzig over/under 0.5 2H
Over
73.9%
@ 1.26+0.0%
Under
26.1%
@ 3.58-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Under
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.55
RB Leipzig over/under 1.5 2H
Over
34.1%
@ 2.20-8.1%
Under
65.9%
@ 1.60+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.25
1xBet
2.20
Betano
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Under
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.57
RB Leipzig over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.6%
@ 4.73-9.1%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.16+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.55
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Hamburger SV over/under 0.5 2H
Over
37.7%
@ 2.18-5.0%
Under
62.3%
@ 1.62+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.17
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.59
Hamburger SV over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.4%
@ 7.17-4.6%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.07+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.20
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Hamburger SV over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.5%
@ 12.00-6.3%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Under 7.5
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.4%
Home +2 handicap
97.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
95.2%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.02
+4.8%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.7%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-
+7.9%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.3%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+4.1%
Under 6.5
94.2%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Unibet
1.03
-
+2.4%
Home over 0.5 goals
92.6%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
+2.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.6%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+4.6%
Home or Draw
91.4%
1.09
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
+4.2%
Home +1 handicap
91.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
10Bet
1.06
-
+6.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.4%
1.16
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
+9.1%
Under 5.5
87.0%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.07
+2.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.3%
1.19
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
+7.6%
Over 1.5
86.1%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
+2.2%
Home or Away
83.8%
1.15
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
+1.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.2%
1.12
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-0.3%
Under 25.5 fouls
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.7%
1.26
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Unibet
1.27
+6.3%
Under 5.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.7%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.36
+8.7%
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.2%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
+8.3%
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.0%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-0.8%
Over 2.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
75.2%
1.35
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.38
Dafabet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
+5.6%
Under 4.5
74.3%
1.30
Unibet
1.34
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.27
+2.2%
Home over 0.5 2H goals
73.9%
1.26
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
-
-
-
+0.0%
Home under 3.5 goals
73.6%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
-0.8%
Home over 1.5 goals
73.3%
1.32
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
+2.5%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
RB Leipzig · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yan Diomande31%
Christoph Baumgartner30%
Rômulo28%
Assan Ouédraogo20%
Antonio Nusa14%
Brajan Gruda14%
Johan Bakayoko14%
Xaver Schlager10%
Conrad Harder9%
David Raum9%
Willi Orbán8%
Ezechiel Banzuzi7%
Max Finkgräfe7%
Benjamin Henrichs6%
Ridle Baku6%
Tidiam Gomis5%
Castello Lukeba3%
Loïs Openda0%
Péter Gulácsi0%
Lukas Klostermann0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
Maarten Vandevoordt0%
Nicolas Seiwald0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christoph Baumgartner30%
David Raum21%
Xaver Schlager20%
Ezechiel Banzuzi18%
Ridle Baku14%
Max Finkgräfe14%
Rômulo12%
Willi Orbán11%
Castello Lukeba10%
Conrad Harder9%
Nicolas Seiwald8%
Brajan Gruda7%
Maarten Vandevoordt6%
Yan Diomande6%
Tidiam Gomis5%
Johan Bakayoko5%
Péter Gulácsi4%
Loïs Openda0%
Benjamin Henrichs0%
Lukas Klostermann0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Antonio Nusa0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Assan Ouédraogo0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Raum24%
Brajan Gruda21%
Yan Diomande19%
Christoph Baumgartner19%
Assan Ouédraogo15%
Lukas Klostermann14%
Rômulo12%
Conrad Harder12%
Ridle Baku11%
Antonio Nusa11%
Max Finkgräfe7%
Willi Orbán5%
Nicolas Seiwald5%
Ezechiel Banzuzi4%
Castello Lukeba3%
Xaver Schlager3%
Loïs Openda0%
Benjamin Henrichs0%
Péter Gulácsi0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
Maarten Vandevoordt0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Johan Bakayoko0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Tidiam Gomis0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Christoph Baumgartner38%
Loïs Openda33%
Yan Diomande22%
Rômulo22%
Antonio Nusa20%
Conrad Harder16%
Brajan Gruda14%
Assan Ouédraogo10%
Johan Bakayoko9%
David Raum3%
Ridle Baku3%
Nicolas Seiwald3%
Benjamin Henrichs0%
Xaver Schlager0%
Péter Gulácsi0%
Lukas Klostermann0%
Willi Orbán0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
Maarten Vandevoordt0%
Castello Lukeba0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Ezechiel Banzuzi0%
Max Finkgräfe0%
Tidiam Gomis0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
Hamburger SV · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fábio Vieira23%
Robert Glatzel20%
Luka Vušković20%
Albert Sambi Lokonga19%
Jean-Luc Dompé14%
Albert Grønbæk14%
Rayan Philippe13%
Bakery Jatta12%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer11%
Philip Otele11%
Yussuf Poulsen6%
Fabio Baldé6%
Nicolás Capaldo4%
Emir Sahiti0%
Jonas Meffert0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Jordan Torunarigha0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Miro Muheim0%
Immanuel Pherai0%
Warmed Omari0%
Nicolai Remberg0%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili0%
William Mikelbrencis0%
Daniel Elfadli0%
Damion Downs0%
Aboubaka Soumahoro0%
Otto Stange0%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolás Capaldo38%
Nicolai Remberg38%
Philip Otele33%
Yussuf Poulsen25%
Daniel Elfadli23%
Miro Muheim23%
Aboubaka Soumahoro20%
Luka Vušković20%
Jonas Meffert17%
Jordan Torunarigha15%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit15%
Immanuel Pherai14%
Albert Sambi Lokonga12%
William Mikelbrencis12%
Fábio Vieira10%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes9%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili8%
Rayan Philippe7%
Bakery Jatta6%
Fabio Baldé6%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer6%
Jean-Luc Dompé0%
Emir Sahiti0%
Robert Glatzel0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Warmed Omari0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Damion Downs0%
Otto Stange0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Albert Grønbæk29%
Fábio Vieira16%
Miro Muheim16%
William Mikelbrencis15%
Nicolás Capaldo12%
Philip Otele11%
Robert Glatzel10%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit8%
Bakery Jatta6%
Fabio Baldé6%
Nicolai Remberg6%
Warmed Omari5%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili4%
Yussuf Poulsen0%
Albert Sambi Lokonga0%
Jean-Luc Dompé0%
Emir Sahiti0%
Jonas Meffert0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Jordan Torunarigha0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Rayan Philippe0%
Immanuel Pherai0%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer0%
Daniel Elfadli0%
Damion Downs0%
Aboubaka Soumahoro0%
Luka Vušković0%
Otto Stange0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fábio Vieira23%
Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer17%
Rayan Philippe10%
Miro Muheim10%
Jean-Luc Dompé10%
Nicolás Capaldo8%
Luka Vušković7%
Bakery Jatta6%
Robert Glatzel5%
Albert Sambi Lokonga4%
Nicolai Remberg3%
Yussuf Poulsen0%
Emir Sahiti0%
Jonas Meffert0%
Daniel Heuer Fernandes0%
Jordan Torunarigha0%
Guilherme Ramos0%
Philip Otele0%
Immanuel Pherai0%
Warmed Omari0%
Albert Grønbæk0%
Giorgi Gocholeishvili0%
William Mikelbrencis0%
Daniel Elfadli0%
Damion Downs0%
Fabio Baldé0%
Aboubaka Soumahoro0%
Otto Stange0%
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
RB Leipzig's squad is €389m more valuable than Hamburger SV's (€506m vs €117m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
RB Leipzig's attack is €167m more valuable than Hamburger SV's (€212m vs €46m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
RB Leipzig's midfield is €75m more valuable than Hamburger SV's (€109m vs €34m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
RB Leipzig's defence is €147m more valuable than Hamburger SV's (€185m vs €37m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
SC Freiburg
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart