Reading’s recent 3-0 win over Stevenage leaves them still struggling to score at home, with an average of 1.75 goals for and 1.75 against against stronger opponents. Brentford, on the other hand, have been prolific on the road, averaging 4.0 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded against weaker sides, and they arrive on a two-game winning streak after a 6-1 triumph over Birmingham. The model therefore rates an away win as the clear favourite, assigning a 87% chance to Brentford’s victory, 10% to a draw and 3% to a Reading win. The expected total of 3.7 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most likely scoreline being 0-3 for Brentford at 13.2%. The single most probable total of goals is three, at 21%. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (99.8%), Away +2 handicap (99.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (98.3%), Draw or Away (96.9%), Away +1 handicap (96.9%), Under 7.5 (96.6%), Away over 0.5 goals (95.7%) and Under 6.5 (92.1%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Reading win
3.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
9.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Brentford win
87.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Reading
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.27
2.00
1.43
1.25
1.12
vs Stronger (5)
2.00
1.80
1.75
1.75
3.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.52
1.16
2.10
1.30
1.13
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brentford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.13
1.62
1.00
1.65
1.24
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.80
1.00
1.00
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.73
1.09
1.67
1.00
1.80
1.20
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
0.33
-
-
3.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Reading) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.5%
Under 1.5
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.9%
Under 2.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
49.8%
Under 3.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
39.2%
No
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-3
13.3%
0-2
12.7%
0-4
10.5%
0-1
7.7%
1-3
6.9%
1-2
6.6%
0-5
6.6%
1-4
5.5%
Reading goals ↓
Brentford goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.0%
7.7%
13%
13%
10%
1
0.9%
4.6%
6.6%
6.9%
5.5%
2
0.3%
1.1%
1.7%
1.8%
1.4%
3
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
4
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Reading goals (down), columns = Brentford goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Manchester City
3.00
Cardiff
2.40
Millwall
2.33
Arsenal
2.17
Southampton
2.00
Reading
2.00
Doncaster
2.00
Cambridge
2.00
Port Vale
2.00
Accrington
2.00
Wycombe
2.00
Plymouth
2.00
Bradford
2.00
Wigan
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Lincoln
2.00
Brighton
2.00
Chelsea
1.80
Newcastle
1.80
Wrexham
1.75
Fulham
1.75
Grimsby
1.75
Swansea
1.75
Brentford
1.75
Crystal Palace
1.67
Bristol City
1.50
Coventry
1.50
Birmingham
1.50
Stockport
1.50
Cheltenham
1.50
Tottenham
1.50
Everton
1.50
Norwich
1.50
Oxford
1.50
Preston
1.50
Burnley
1.50
Charlton
1.50
Liverpool
1.50
Mansfield
1.50
Barnsley
1.33
Leeds
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Barnet
1.00
Salford
1.00
Fleetwood Town
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Leicester
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Manchester United
1.00
Hull
1.00
Tranmere
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Bolton
1.00
Sunderland
1.00
Aston Villa
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Sheffield Weds
0.67
Huddersfield
0.67
Burton
0.50
AFC Wimbledon
0.50
Rotherham
0.50
Stoke
0.50
Derby
0.50
Newport County
0.50
Rochdale
0.48
York
0.36
Sheffield United
0.00
West Ham
0.00
Blackburn
0.00
Blackpool
0.00
Shrewsbury
0.00
Stevenage
0.00
Exeter
0.00
QPR
0.00
Oldham
0.00
Notts County
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Crawley Town
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Watford
0.00
Leyton Orient
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Nottingham Forest
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Swindon
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Middlesbrough
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Luton
0.00
Crewe
0.00
Colchester
0.00
Reading is 0.25 points better than Brentford in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Brighton
4.00
Hull
3.00
Bolton
3.00
Wolves
2.67
Manchester City
2.33
Wrexham
2.25
Chelsea
2.20
Cardiff
2.00
West Ham
2.00
Doncaster
2.00
Barnet
2.00
QPR
2.00
Fleetwood Town
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Swansea
2.00
Nottingham Forest
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Plymouth
2.00
Bradford
2.00
Charlton
2.00
Brentford
2.00
Newcastle
1.80
Southampton
1.67
Cambridge
1.67
Accrington
1.67
Lincoln
1.67
Crystal Palace
1.67
Stockport
1.50
Grimsby
1.50
Tottenham
1.50
Preston
1.50
Burnley
1.50
Arsenal
1.50
Reading
1.33
Barnsley
1.33
Millwall
1.33
Sheffield Weds
1.33
Fulham
1.25
Wycombe
1.25
Bristol City
1.00
Coventry
1.00
Sheffield United
1.00
Leeds
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Blackburn
1.00
Shrewsbury
1.00
Stevenage
1.00
AFC Wimbledon
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Cheltenham
1.00
Oldham
1.00
Crawley Town
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Watford
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Everton
1.00
Norwich
1.00
Derby
1.00
Portsmouth
1.00
Newport County
1.00
Tranmere
1.00
Swindon
1.00
Huddersfield
1.00
Peterboro
1.00
Crewe
1.00
Sunderland
1.00
Liverpool
1.00
Aston Villa
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Port Vale
0.67
Wigan
0.67
Rochdale
0.56
Burton
0.50
Rotherham
0.50
Oxford
0.50
York
0.42
Blackpool
0.00
Exeter
0.00
Salford
0.00
Notts County
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Leyton Orient
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Stoke
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Walsall
0.00
Middlesbrough
0.00
Luton
0.00
Colchester
0.00
Reading is 0.67 goals worse than Brentford in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Salford
0.00
Walsall
0.00
Manchester City
0.33
Wycombe
0.50
Southampton
0.67
Cambridge
0.67
Port Vale
0.67
Millwall
0.67
Wigan
0.67
Crystal Palace
0.67
Brighton
0.67
Fulham
0.75
Brentford
0.75
Arsenal
0.83
Bristol City
1.00
Coventry
1.00
Leeds
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Blackpool
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
Burton
1.00
Stockport
1.00
Rotherham
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Notts County
1.00
Northampton
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Leyton Orient
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Tottenham
1.00
Everton
1.00
Tranmere
1.00
Luton
1.00
Lincoln
1.00
Colchester
1.00
Sunderland
1.00
Aston Villa
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Cardiff
1.20
Reading
1.33
Accrington
1.33
Newcastle
1.40
AFC Wimbledon
1.50
Cheltenham
1.50
Stoke
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Derby
1.50
Newport County
1.50
Preston
1.50
Burnley
1.50
Sheffield Weds
1.67
Bradford
1.67
Huddersfield
1.67
Wrexham
1.75
Swansea
1.75
Chelsea
1.80
Sheffield United
2.00
Blackburn
2.00
Barnet
2.00
Exeter
2.00
Grimsby
2.00
Fleetwood Town
2.00
Bristol Rvs
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Watford
2.00
Bournemouth
2.00
Norwich
2.00
Milton Keynes Dons
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Portsmouth
2.00
Swindon
2.00
Chesterfield
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Peterboro
2.00
Charlton
2.00
Liverpool
2.00
West Ham
3.00
Shrewsbury
3.00
Stevenage
3.00
Barnsley
3.00
QPR
3.00
Oldham
3.00
Crawley Town
3.00
Nottingham Forest
3.00
Hull
3.00
Oxford
3.00
Crewe
3.00
Bolton
3.00
Rochdale
3.31
Middlesbrough
4.00
York
4.45
Reading is 0.58 goals worse than Brentford in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 0.75).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Leeds
80%
Barnet
77%
Peterboro
72%
Chesterfield
71%
Ipswich
71%
Manchester United
70%
Sunderland
70%
Stoke
66%
Manchester City
66%
Blackburn
65%
Bournemouth
65%
Notts County
64%
Portsmouth
63%
Tranmere
63%
Birmingham
62%
Fulham
62%
Middlesbrough
62%
Hull
61%
Chelsea
60%
Leicester
60%
Liverpool
60%
Stevenage
58%
Oldham
58%
Preston
58%
Brighton
57%
Blackpool
57%
Bristol Rvs
57%
Cardiff
57%
Everton
56%
Coventry
56%
Barnsley
56%
Stockport
55%
West Brom
55%
Nottingham Forest
55%
Tottenham
54%
Arsenal
54%
Aston Villa
54%
Bristol City
54%
Exeter
53%
Newcastle
53%
Bolton
53%
Norwich
52%
Plymouth
52%
Salford
51%
Gillingham
51%
Burnley
51%
Wycombe
50%
Oxford
50%
AFC Wimbledon
50%
Millwall
50%
Doncaster
49%
West Ham
49%
Southampton
49%
Leyton Orient
49%
Swansea
49%
Charlton
48%
Wolves
48%
Lincoln
47%
Reading
46%
Sheffield United
46%
Luton
46%
Wrexham
46%
Derby
45%
Brentford
44%
Grimsby
44%
Shrewsbury
44%
Watford
44%
Crewe
44%
Rotherham
44%
Northampton
43%
Burton
42%
Cheltenham
42%
Wigan
42%
Crystal Palace
42%
Sheffield Weds
40%
Crawley Town
39%
Cambridge
37%
Colchester
37%
Accrington
35%
Fleetwood Town
35%
Milton Keynes Dons
35%
Bradford
33%
Huddersfield
32%
Mansfield
32%
QPR
31%
Port Vale
31%
Newport County
30%
Bromley
30%
Swindon
27%
Walsall
26%
Reading is 1.8 percentage points better than Brentford in terms of average possession (46% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Reading
For 5.1 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 11.9 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brentford
For 5.3 · Against 5.9 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 8.8 · Total 19.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Reading
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.0
9.6
3.3
3.2
3.3
22.5
21.4
23.5
vs Stronger (9)
8.3
6.8
10.2
3.4
3.2
3.8
21.4
21.2
21.8
vs Similar (40)
9.6
9.7
9.4
3.3
3.4
3.3
22.8
21.5
23.9
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
39%
36%
42%
44%
38%
50%
57%
55%
58%
% under line
61%
64%
58%
56%
62%
50%
43%
45%
42%
This opponent (Brentford) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brentford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
8.9
10.7
3.4
3.0
3.6
19.9
20.1
19.7
vs Stronger (9)
10.3
8.8
11.6
4.3
5.0
3.8
18.2
19.5
17.2
vs Similar (37)
10.0
8.9
10.9
3.3
2.6
3.9
20.5
20.2
20.7
vs Weaker (4)
8.5
-
8.5
2.2
-
2.2
18.2
-
18.2
% over line
60%
52%
67%
46%
41%
50%
35%
43%
30%
% under line
40%
48%
33%
54%
59%
50%
65%
57%
70%
This opponent (Reading) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
11.8
Barnsley
11.7
Swindon
11.4
Sheffield United
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.2
York
11.2
Southampton
11.1
West Ham
11.1
Newcastle
11.1
Leicester
11.0
Middlesbrough
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Millwall
10.8
Cardiff
10.8
Blackburn
10.8
Bournemouth
10.7
Blackpool
10.6
Wigan
10.6
Walsall
10.6
Bolton
10.5
Preston
10.5
Fulham
10.5
Grimsby
10.5
Luton
10.4
Port Vale
10.4
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Burton
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Bradford
10.3
Chesterfield
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Norwich
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
Huddersfield
10.2
Liverpool
10.2
Barnet
10.2
Bromley
10.2
Oldham
10.2
AFC Wimbledon
10.1
Northampton
10.1
Wrexham
10.1
Wycombe
10.1
Tottenham
10.1
Exeter
10.1
Derby
10.0
Chelsea
10.0
QPR
10.0
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Tranmere
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Peterboro
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Brentford
9.9
Stockport
9.8
Cheltenham
9.8
Accrington
9.8
Charlton
9.8
Brighton
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Mansfield
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Salford
9.6
Burnley
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Notts County
9.4
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Rotherham
9.4
Everton
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Reading
9.2
Milton Keynes Dons
9.2
Lincoln
9.2
Sunderland
9.1
Cambridge
9.0
Rochdale
9.0
Arsenal
9.0
Colchester
9.0
Stevenage
8.9
Crystal Palace
8.7
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.8
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Crawley Town
4.5
Notts County
4.4
Chelsea
4.4
Watford
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.3
Shrewsbury
4.2
Hull
4.2
Colchester
4.2
Peterboro
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Accrington
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Lincoln
4.0
Brighton
4.0
Chesterfield
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Gillingham
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Blackpool
3.9
Wolves
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Portsmouth
3.8
Southampton
3.8
Doncaster
3.8
Crewe
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Bromley
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Salford
3.8
Mansfield
3.8
Luton
3.7
Leicester
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Walsall
3.7
QPR
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Everton
3.7
Barnet
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Wycombe
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Burton
3.6
Bolton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Barnsley
3.6
Charlton
3.5
Oxford
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Millwall
3.4
Cheltenham
3.4
Preston
3.4
Swindon
3.4
West Brom
3.3
AFC Wimbledon
3.3
Stockport
3.3
Wigan
3.2
Rochdale
3.2
Burnley
3.2
Sheffield Weds
3.1
Cambridge
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.1
Crewe
25.1
Colchester
24.9
Notts County
24.8
Salford
24.8
Oldham
24.7
Plymouth
24.5
Bradford
24.4
Huddersfield
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Barnet
24.1
Luton
23.9
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Ipswich
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Leyton Orient
23.7
Gillingham
23.6
Aston Villa
23.6
Rotherham
23.5
Rochdale
23.5
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Wolves
23.4
Wigan
23.3
Newport County
23.2
AFC Wimbledon
23.2
Bournemouth
23.2
Peterboro
23.2
Milton Keynes Dons
23.1
Blackpool
23.1
Lincoln
23.0
Walsall
23.0
Tottenham
22.9
Derby
22.9
Doncaster
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Chelsea
22.7
Tranmere
22.7
Reading
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
Shrewsbury
22.6
Burton
22.5
Oxford
22.4
Cambridge
22.4
Swansea
22.3
Mansfield
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
Leeds
22.1
Cheltenham
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Sheffield Weds
22.1
West Ham
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Exeter
22.0
Chesterfield
22.0
Bromley
21.9
Port Vale
21.9
Southampton
21.9
Bolton
21.9
Northampton
21.9
Accrington
21.8
Newcastle
21.8
Middlesbrough
21.7
Birmingham
21.7
Everton
21.6
Norwich
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Manchester United
21.5
Bristol City
21.4
Sheffield United
21.4
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Wycombe
21.3
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Stoke
21.0
Watford
20.9
West Brom
20.9
Stockport
20.8
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.6
Blackburn
20.5
Millwall
20.5
Barnsley
20.4
Preston
20.4
Swindon
20.3
Fulham
20.0
Burnley
19.9
Brentford
19.8
Wrexham
19.8
York
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Reading or Draw
12.7%
Avg Implied -
3%
10%
87%
covers Reading + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Reading or Brentford
90.4%
Avg Implied -
3%
10%
87%
covers Reading + Brentford
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Brentford
97.0%
Avg Implied -
3%
10%
87%
covers Draw + Brentford
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Reading over/under 0.5
Over
40.5%
Under
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 1.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 2.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 3.5
Over
0.2%
Under
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 0.5
Over
95.7%
Under
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 1.5
Over
82.2%
Under
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 2.5
Over
60.9%
Under
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 3.5
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Reading, so a minus line means Reading give that many goals of a start and Brentford receive them. At -1, Reading must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Reading win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Reading)
Reading -2
0.1%
Draw -2
0.6%
Brentford +2
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Reading)
Reading -1
0.7%
Draw -1
2.3%
Brentford +1
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Reading)
Reading +1
12.7%
Draw +1
16.3%
Brentford -1
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Reading)
Reading +2
28.9%
Draw +2
21.1%
Brentford -2
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Reading
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.40
1.21
0.43
0.56
0.38
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
0.60
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.36
1.10
0.40
0.53
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brentford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.77
0.46
0.76
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.55
0.83
0.50
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
-
-
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Reading) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Reading over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Reading
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.79
1.00
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
0.25
1.25
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.80
1.00
0.90
0.60
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brentford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
0.85
0.54
0.88
0.71
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
1.00
1.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.55
0.83
0.50
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
-
-
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Reading) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Reading over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reading over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away -1 handicap
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Reading
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
J. Brown50%
J. Marriott33%
George Earthy33%
R. Williams25%
P. Lane25%
Benn Ward25%
Joel Pereira0%
U. Godwin-Malife0%
L. Wing0%
A. Rinomhota0%
P. O'Connor0%
Jeriel Dorsett0%
D. Kyerewaa0%
C. Savage0%
Kyreece Lisbie0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
A. Rinomhota33%
P. O'Connor33%
Jeriel Dorsett33%
Joel Pereira25%
R. Williams25%
C. Savage25%
Benn Ward25%
U. Godwin-Malife0%
J. Marriott0%
L. Wing0%
J. Brown0%
D. Kyerewaa0%
P. Lane0%
George Earthy0%
Kyreece Lisbie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
L. Wing33%
Jeriel Dorsett33%
Kyreece Lisbie33%
R. Williams25%
D. Kyerewaa25%
P. Lane25%
Joel Pereira0%
U. Godwin-Malife0%
J. Marriott0%
A. Rinomhota0%
J. Brown0%
P. O'Connor0%
C. Savage0%
George Earthy0%
Benn Ward0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Kyerewaa25%
P. Lane25%
Benn Ward25%
Joel Pereira0%
U. Godwin-Malife0%
R. Williams0%
J. Marriott0%
L. Wing0%
A. Rinomhota0%
J. Brown0%
P. O'Connor0%
Jeriel Dorsett0%
C. Savage0%
George Earthy0%
Kyreece Lisbie0%
Brentford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Callum Wilson33%
Mikkel Damsgaard33%
Nathan Collins33%
Vitaly Janelt33%
Aaron Hickey33%
Keane Lewis-Potter33%
Kevin Schade33%
Igor Thiago33%
Michael Kayode33%
Jaidon Anthony0%
Yehor Yarmoliuk0%
Mamadou Sangare0%
Dango Ouattara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitaly Janelt67%
Nathan Collins33%
Jaidon Anthony33%
Callum Wilson0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Keane Lewis-Potter0%
Kevin Schade0%
Igor Thiago0%
Yehor Yarmoliuk0%
Mamadou Sangare0%
Dango Ouattara0%
Michael Kayode0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mamadou Sangare67%
Keane Lewis-Potter33%
Jaidon Anthony33%
Yehor Yarmoliuk33%
Callum Wilson0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Nathan Collins0%
Vitaly Janelt0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Kevin Schade0%
Igor Thiago0%
Dango Ouattara0%
Michael Kayode0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nathan Collins33%
Kevin Schade33%
Igor Thiago33%
Michael Kayode33%
Callum Wilson0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Vitaly Janelt0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Keane Lewis-Potter0%
Jaidon Anthony0%
Yehor Yarmoliuk0%
Mamadou Sangare0%
Dango Ouattara0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
COV (27)
€237m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
LEI (22)
€69m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Reading's squad is €556m less valuable than Brentford's (€10m vs €565m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
LEI (7)
€20m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Reading's attack is €225m less valuable than Brentford's (€3m vs €228m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
FUL (3)
€28m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
LEI (4)
€13m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
MKD (6)
€7m
BLB (7)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
LUT (6)
€4m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Reading's midfield is €125m less valuable than Brentford's (€3m vs €128m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
LUT (10)
€12m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Reading's defence is €206m less valuable than Brentford's (€4m vs €209m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe
Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham